Match Thread Everton v Leeds United - Preview, Match Report and MotM Poll

Everton Man of the Match


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As good as James is, he doesn’t exactly set an example work rate or battling wise.
Allan looks more the captain type to me but he hasn’t been here that long.

Yeah. The less star treatment we give James the better. He is an immense talent but does better when he is not at either end of the stick. Not be treated like crap but also not be given the star treatment. That way he is happy but still working to produce.
 

Everton are unbeaten in their last 13 top-flight home games against Leeds (W6 D7) since a 2-3 loss in August 1990. Indeed, in the Premier League, Everton have only faced Fulham at Goodison Park more often without defeat (14) than they have Leeds (12).
 

Yeah, but the data is drawn from aggregating shot success across the Top 5 Leagues. So for every Harry Kane you have a Vincent Janssen.

The short answer is that better players will (in general) exceed their xG more, but that even they don't do that consistently and are just as likely to undershoot xG as to overshoot it. So a team undershooting their xG may have a problem with finishing chances at that point in time, but unless there's a player-specific problem you'd expect it to even our (as per the law of averages) over a season.

From that we can see that Spurs' good run is at the moment contingent on Son finishing every chance he gets, as Kane is only shooting at his xG. If Son hits a bad run then Spurs will immediately start dropping points as they don't have the creativity margin of chances created to afford to miss those.
I know lockdown is boring mate, but Jees this xG stuff is dull. I remember when Football was played on grass and we debated based on what our eyes saw. If VAR and Covid-19 don’t kill football I’m sure xG-type statistics might finish it off.
Just concentrate on real players up against each other, two teams trying to outwit each other and two master managerial brains locking horns. Leave the algorithms and potentiality factors were they belong....in a classroom.
 

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