Isn't there a small chance a European place can even drop to 9th? Would take a lot of ifs for that to happen I imagine
A very small chance
Initial routes:
1-5 = CL
6 and fa cup = EL
League cup = conference league
As the league cup final is two teams almost certain to finish 1-5, the conference league place drops to 7th place
Then if a team already qualified by league position wins the fa cup, that drops to 8th
For it to go to 9th we would need a premier League team that finishes in the Europa League or that one conference league spot to win either the champions League or Europa League, meaning they qualify for the CL next season and that spot gets bumped down.
Realistically, from the clubs currently competing that would require one of Chelsea, villa or Newcastle to win the European competition they're in and finish 6th to 8th in the table.