Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Daveysgingerlovechild]

Two things from that. Firstly the ‘experts’ expected up to a 9.5% reduction in U.K. GDP, I said I’d live with 10% but it’s been nothing like that. Secondly, if the report is true then Brexit is the reason Germany overtook Japan. Other than holidaymakers having to show passports I’m still looking for this financial cliff edge……

Where's the 10% come from?

The imf reckoned 5.5% or thereabouts.

IMF says Brexit would trigger UK recession

Annual report on the British economy predicts ‘negative and substantial’ effects if Britain left the EU

www.theguardian.com

It didn't, admittedly, quite happen like that. However, one could argue that a) that was the worst case scenario and b) because of the gradual process of removing ourselves (some things didn't really come into force until 2021) the full potential effects didn't come into play.

Interestingly Jonathan Portes from the excellent UK in a changing Europe discusses some reports of the hit being 5% off GDP as of June 2023, but argues it is 2-3%.

Still not insignificant in a context where politicians of all stripes, but particularly the Trussites are banging on about the need for Growth and 'anti-growth coalitons'. Well, there's a big reason there. And now we are in recession. Chuck in more border checks coming in, we will potentially see further downturn.


Absolutely puzzled why you'd think a 9% hit on GDP would be a good thing either btw.

 

[peteblue]

What a convenient system you have chosen. I wonder, why did it not occur to compare say, erm, britain before and britain after brexit.

Ok, then do so, but eliminate Covid and Ukraine related costs…over to you…..

 

[peteblue]

Where's the 10% come from?

The imf reckoned 5.5% or thereabouts.

IMF says Brexit would trigger UK recession

Annual report on the British economy predicts ‘negative and substantial’ effects if Britain left the EU

www.theguardian.com

It didn't, admittedly, quite happen like that. However, one could argue that a) that was the worst case scenario and b) because of the gradual process of removing ourselves (some things didn't really come into force until 2021) the full potential effects didn't come into play.

Interestingly Jonathan Portes from the excellent UK in a changing Europe discusses some reports of the hit being 5% off GDP as of June 2023, but argues it is 2-3%.

Still not insignificant in a context where politicians of all stripes, but particularly the Trussites are banging on about the need for Growth and 'anti-growth coalitons'. Well, there's a big reason there. And now we are in recession. Chuck in more border checks coming in, we will potentially see further downturn.


Absolutely puzzled why you'd think a 9% hit on GDP would be a good thing either btw.

We are in a technical recession because of two quarters, people really need to open their eyes as to what is happening in the world, meanwhile over in my favourite country….

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-economy-shrink-by-05-2024-dihk-2024-02-15/

 

[Jebus_lives]

Now, I am no expert but I always thought that we had control of our borders before Brexit. The only thing that has changed is the freedom if movement from within the EU?

The only thing steadying the country, it would seem, is record numbers of immigration.

 

[Jebus_lives]

Ok, then do so, but eliminate Covid and Ukraine related costs…over to you…..

Pete an independent commission have ruled those as not relevant.

 

[Jebus_lives]

We are in a technical recession because of two quarters, people really need to open their eyes as to what is happening in the world, meanwhile over in my favourite country….

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-economy-shrink-by-05-2024-dihk-2024-02-15/

 

[Daveysgingerlovechild]

We are in a technical recession because of two quarters, people really need to open their eyes as to what is happening in the world, meanwhile over in my favourite country….

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-economy-shrink-by-05-2024-dihk-2024-02-15/

You aren't really engaging with the issue here Pete. A very reputable source gas indicated 2-3% of GDP has been knocked off due to Brexit. Many factors account for economic growth. So it is entirely possible for Germany to have problems whilst inside the EU.

The point you miss, or are unwilling to concede, is that our economy would arguably be rosier if we stayed in the EU. No 'technical' recession.

Again, still unclear why you think a 9% hit GDP would be acceptable.

 

[peteblue]

Where's the 10% come from?

The imf reckoned 5.5% or thereabouts.

IMF says Brexit would trigger UK recession

Annual report on the British economy predicts ‘negative and substantial’ effects if Britain left the EU

www.theguardian.com

It didn't, admittedly, quite happen like that. However, one could argue that a) that was the worst case scenario and b) because of the gradual process of removing ourselves (some things didn't really come into force until 2021) the full potential effects didn't come into play.

Interestingly Jonathan Portes from the excellent UK in a changing Europe discusses some reports of the hit being 5% off GDP as of June 2023, but argues it is 2-3%.

Still not insignificant in a context where politicians of all stripes, but particularly the Trussites are banging on about the need for Growth and 'anti-growth coalitons'. Well, there's a big reason there. And now we are in recession. Chuck in more border checks coming in, we will potentially see further downturn.


Absolutely puzzled why you'd think a 9% hit on GDP would be a good thing either btw.

I’ve never said that a 9% hit to GDP is a good thing. I’ve said all along that I believed it an acceptable price to pay to get out of the sclerotic bureaucracy called the EU. In the end even that didn’t happen….

 

[Daveysgingerlovechild]

I’ve never said that a 9% hit to GDP is a good thing. I’ve said all along that I believed it an acceptable price to pay to get out of the sclerotic bureaucracy called the EU. In the end even that didn’t happen….

That's very strange logic. Particularly when you started a thread concerned about the cost of living. Always likely, no?

 

[Jebus_lives]

That's very strange logic. Particularly when you started a thread concerned about the cost of living. Always likely, no?

I can 100% guarantee that the moment the full Brexit implementation is underway (which the Tories have pushed back multiple times - I wonder why that could be??) and their is a Labour government in power, Pete will be on here bemoaning the poor fiscal responsibility of the left.

 

[peteblue]

You aren't really engaging with the issue here Pete. A very reputable source gas indicated 2-3% of GDP has been knocked off due to Brexit. Many factors account for economic growth. So it is entirely possible for Germany to have problems whilst inside the EU.

The point you miss, or are unwilling to concede, is that our economy would arguably be rosier if we stayed in the EU. No 'technical' recession.

Again, still unclear why you think a 9% hit GDP would be acceptable.

Let me ask you what is so great about the EU. It’s a mishmash of totally different economic and cultural norms set up by France and the country that should not be named for their own benefit. We joined when we were an economic basket case and it’s cost us a fortune ever since, we’re still paying into it. Merkel thought she was the ruler of the EU, and perhaps she was, hence the casual way she dismissed Cameron’s concerns. The EU wanted ‘ever closer Union’ and I certainly didn’t.

Remember too that the U.K. is about to boot out the Tories and will do so with any failing government, none of whom will be able to point at Brussels and blame them. We are independent with no additional supranational oversight nor costs. Now your vote really does mean something….

 

[Jebus_lives]

Let me ask you what is so great about the EU. It’s a mishmash of totally different economic and cultural norms set up by France and the country that should not be named for their own benefit. We joined when we were an economic basket case and it’s cost us a fortune ever since, we’re still paying into it. Merkel thought she was the ruler of the EU, and perhaps she was, hence the casual way she dismissed Cameron’s concerns. The EU wanted ‘ever closer Union’ and I certainly didn’t.

Remember too that the U.K. is about to boot out the Tories and will do so with any failing government, none of whom will be able to point at Brussels and blame them. We are independent with no additional supranational oversight nor costs. Now your vote really does mean something….

And there we go.....

 

[Daveysgingerlovechild]

Let me ask you what is so great about the EU. It’s a mishmash of totally different economic and cultural norms set up by France and the country that should not be named for their own benefit. We joined when we were an economic basket case and it’s cost us a fortune ever since, we’re still paying into it. Merkel thought she was the ruler of the EU, and perhaps she was, hence the casual way she dismissed Cameron’s concerns. The EU wanted ‘ever closer Union’ and I certainly didn’t.

Remember too that the U.K. is about to boot out the Tories and will do so with any failing government, none of whom will be able to point at Brussels and blame them. We are independent with no additional supranational oversight nor costs. Now your vote really does mean something….

Ladies and gentlemen, there we have it: the random ravings of the Brexit voter dashed with a soupcon of weird prejudices. Fails to engage with the point. Again. Can see @Rita_Pool's case on that.

I'll leave it there.

 

[JimmyJeffers]

And there we go.....

Look at that. Running wild and carefree. Beautiful to see.

 

[peteblue]

Ladies and gentlemen, there we have it: the random ravings of the Brexit voter dashed with a soupcon of weird prejudices. Fails to engage with the point. Again. Can see @Rita_Pool's case on that.

I'll leave it there.

And yet still no response as to why the EU is so great…I think silence says it all, but I’ll leave it there…….