Haydn
Player Valuation: £15m
Pete, there’s statistics and then there are the other things.. The UK’s GDP is only growing faster than most of Europe because it is recovering from a much lower base.
Every country in Europe took a hit from covid. Only the UK’s economy took a double hit from both covid and Brexit.
Any country in the developed world would be delighted with Government policies that grew their economy by 4%. They would be heralded as geniuses. Our Government opted instead for the path that will intentionally reduce our previously projected GDP by 4%.
It would be a very strange parent that purposefully invested their children’s inheritance in a scheme that was projected to reduce their potential gains at a compounded interest rate of 4%. Over time that equals a shed load of lost wealth.
By any measure that is a disaster which will only work through into other statistics such as lower employment and wages over time.
The die is cast.
Some conclusions on the impact of Brexit below from the Government’s own Office for Budget Responsibility.
I’m not aware of any objective analysis from a recognised independent source that challenges these conclusions.
The new trading relationship will reduce long-run productivity by 4 per cent relative to remaining in the EU. This largely reflects our view that the increase in non-tariff barriers on UK-EU trade acts as an additional impediment to the exploitation of comparative advantage.
Both exports and imports will be around 15 per cent lower in the long run than if the UK had remained in the EU.
New trade deals with non-EU countries will not have a material impact. This is because most of these largely replicate deals that the UK already had as a member of the EU and, in any case, they are likely to have only a very small and gradual impact on GDP.
Brexit analysis - Office for Budget Responsibility
Since the announcement of the EU referendum we have been producing analysis and writing about the potential effects of Brexit on the economy and public finances. We have compiled our assumptions, judgements and analysis on this page.
obr.uk
