Current Affairs EU In or Out

In or Out

  • In

    Votes: 688 67.9%

  • Out

    Votes: 325 32.1%
  • Total voters
    1,013
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BlueDraka said:
Now they are one of the 'experts' who consistently get it wrong. Billions of high tech equipment and get it wrong. 2:week forecast is the biggest joke. Tells you everything about Experts forecasting the future
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With respect, I'd say it says everything about us rather than them. If you follow the work of Philip Tetlock, it provides quite a good insight into the forecasting business. Most of the very best, especially in areas of enormous complexity, such as the economy or the weather, know full well that the best they can offer is a probable outcome because things are too complex to provide certainty.

Certainty tends to be how it's conveyed in the media because we're largely ignorant fools who like to believe in a black and white world. My understanding is that the various economic forecasts produced during the last few years have generally been part of a number of scenarios, from best case to worst case. It's a bit like the Oxford vaccine, which has a similar range of outcomes, and Dave is like the media, jumping on the worst-case to deride it as second rate.

We shouldn't be looking at forecasters to provide us with definite answers as that's unrealistic. What we should be looking at them for is to inform our decisions better than not forecasting at all, which they do universally well.
 
BlueDraka said:
A lot what you say is right. But a lot of the stuff is guesswork,. Yes educated guesswork. Some might happen some might not. I hope we make a success rather than saying See we were right we should have remained.
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I hope its a success too, but if (when) it isn't I hope the likes of you will admit it rather than believing the "lets blame Macron / France / Scotland / Muslims" lies which will inevitably come along from the people responsible.
 
Bruce Wayne said:
With respect, I'd say it says everything about us rather than them. If you follow the work of Philip Tetlock, it provides quite a good insight into the forecasting business. Most of the very best, especially in areas of enormous complexity, such as the economy or the weather, know full well that the best they can offer is a probable outcome because things are too complex to provide certainty.

Certainty tends to be how it's conveyed in the media because we're largely ignorant fools who like to believe in a black and white world. My understanding is that the various economic forecasts produced during the last few years have generally been part of a number of scenarios, from best case to worst case. It's a bit like the Oxford vaccine, which has a similar range of outcomes, and Dave is like the media, jumping on the worst-case to deride it as second rate.

We shouldn't be looking at forecasters to provide us with definite answers as that's unrealistic. What we should be looking at them for is to inform our decisions better than not forecasting at all, which they do universally well.
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Excellent post.
Who's Dave?
 
Bruce Wayne said:
With respect, I'd say it says everything about us rather than them. If you follow the work of Philip Tetlock, it provides quite a good insight into the forecasting business. Most of the very best, especially in areas of enormous complexity, such as the economy or the weather, know full well that the best they can offer is a probable outcome because things are too complex to provide certainty.

Certainty tends to be how it's conveyed in the media because we're largely ignorant fools who like to believe in a black and white world. My understanding is that the various economic forecasts produced during the last few years have generally been part of a number of scenarios, from best case to worst case. It's a bit like the Oxford vaccine, which has a similar range of outcomes, and Dave is like the media, jumping on the worst-case to deride it as second rate.

We shouldn't be looking at forecasters to provide us with definite answers as that's unrealistic. What we should be looking at them for is to inform our decisions better than not forecasting at all, which they do universally well.
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So our so called experts just guessing basically...

I will now base all my decisions like they do at major football tournaments - putting two different outcomes on two different peices of paper and letting a 'psychic animal' decide on my outcome.
 
tsubaki said:
I hope its a success too, but if (when) it isn't I hope the likes of you will admit it rather than believing the "lets blame Macron / France / Scotland / Muslims" lies which will inevitably come along from the people responsible.
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That's a bit ingenuous really. We will have no one else to blame. As I have said I think the EU would take us back out it all went pear shaped albeit having to take the euro and other conditions.
Not sure if the Macron bit was a dig at me. All I said was that he didn't need to shut the Dover route. And I think most people think that. Ireland kept there border with us open for freight. As for Muslims not sure what that has to do with the eu
 
BlueDraka said:
That's a bit ingenuous really. We will have no one else to blame. As I have said I think the EU would take us back out it all went pear shaped albeit having to take the euro and other conditions.
Not sure if the Macron bit was a dig at me. All I said was that he didn't need to shut the Dover route. And I think most people think that. Ireland kept there border with us open for freight. As for Muslims not sure what that has to do with the eu
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It wasn't a dig at you, it was meant to say how the politicians and media will seek to send the blame elsewhere rather than at themselves. They'll absolutely return to their favourite targets - Macron, the French, the Scots, Muslims - rather than admit what they've done.

As for "we'll have noone else to blame", I hope you meant "leavers" there.
 
BlueDraka said:
That's a bit ingenuous really. We will have no one else to blame. As I have said I think the EU would take us back out it all went pear shaped albeit having to take the euro and other conditions.
Not sure if the Macron bit was a dig at me. All I said was that he didn't need to shut the Dover route. And I think most people think that. Ireland kept there border with us open for freight. As for Muslims not sure what that has to do with the eu
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This is a bit naive
 
tsubaki said:
We do, though of course the idea that people won't be saying "I told you so" in the years to come is fanciful.
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It's not fanciful at all. And if it does happen in sure there will be lots of people who say that. But I'm sure there are lots of remainers who just want to get on with it
 
tsubaki said:
It wasn't a dig at you, it was meant to say how the politicians and media will seek to send the blame elsewhere rather than at themselves. They'll absolutely return to their favourite targets - Macron, the French, the Scots, Muslims - rather than admit what they've done.

As for "we'll have noone else to blame", I hope you meant "leavers" there.
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Of course because they voted to leave.
If it's a success will remainers say We were wrong,?
 
BlueDraka said:
A lot what you say is right. But a lot of the stuff is guesswork,. Yes educated guesswork. Some might happen some might not. I hope we make a success rather than saying See we were right we should have remained.
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If I jump through a glass window, educated guesswork would say that I might get seriously injured. But it's still guesswork, so I'm going to do it and hope I make a success of it.










... do you see how stupid that is?
 
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