Current Affairs EU In or Out

In or Out

  • In

    Votes: 688 67.9%

  • Out

    Votes: 325 32.1%
  • Total voters
    1,013
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orly said:
Pete it'll be back to the drawing board for the current US:UK FTA now Biden has won.

- While the transition to Biden happens negotiations will pause.
- Clearly he's going to take a much, much more pro-Europe stance than Trump. The current US:UK proposed FTA was riddled with what could have become technical barriers to trade for the EU. That not won't happen.
- Any hope that the US would pick up the slack in the new year for the UK is now gone, or so unlikely that you cannot factor it in.

On the flipside, an outline UK:EU FTA has now never been more likely.
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I hadnt thought that through, but it makes perfect sense. EU/UK FTA would then involve some "restrictions" in any UK/US deal.

Is that what you are alluding to?
 
roydo said:
I hadnt thought that through, but it makes perfect sense. EU/UK FTA would then involve some "restrictions" in any UK/US deal.

Is that what you are alluding to?
Click to expand...

Yes absolutely right. The EU has quite a lot of regulations on a variety of manufactured goods (and indeed the disposal of them) whereas unsurprisingly the US prefers market behaviours, self-regulation and a lighter touch. So therefore if the UK adopts EU alignment that would it at odds with the US on various things - known as technical barriers to trade. It's why a US:EU FTA has always been very difficult as they start off from fundamentally different base principles
 
orly said:
Yes absolutely right. The EU has quite a lot of regulations on a variety of manufactured goods (and indeed the disposal of them) whereas unsurprisingly the US prefers market behaviours, self-regulation and a lighter touch. So therefore if the UK adopts EU alignment that would it at odds with the US on various things - known as technical barriers to trade. It's why a US:EU FTA has always been very difficult as they start off from fundamentally different base principles
Click to expand...

Be well happy with that.

With us all servants of hindsight, perhaps that, (the US election), is why things have got close to ground zero.
 
roydo said:
Be well happy with that.

With us all servants of hindsight, perhaps that, (the US election), is why things have got close to ground zero.
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Honestly maybe. But I think if you're based in GB we've got two options far, far more starkly than before:

- Agree an FTA with the EU that involves very high alignment, and to date the FTA doesn't look anything like that, or;
- Go it alone without US "air support" and take it bigly up the back passage

Very tricky choices to be made in the next 50 days and playing off a very empty hand. The timing of the morally bang on Rashford meal campaign decision this weekend - there's no such thing as a coincidence here. It's a sign of a very conciliatory tone in the next few weeks.
 
orly said:
Honestly maybe. But I think if you're based in GB we've got two options far, far more starkly than before:

- Agree an FTA with the EU that involves very high alignment, and to date the FTA doesn't look anything like that, or;
- Go it alone without US "air support" and take it bigly up the back passage

Very tricky choices to be made in the next 50 days and playing off a very empty hand
Click to expand...

I guess it will come down to pragmatism v political reality.

Like, keeping the existing arrangement, supply lines, and alignment will be fine for pretty much everyone except the loons; day to day like. Johnson has the majority to carry that. But, and its a big but, the EU know free movement of people is unlikely to be spun in the UK, so maybe some fudge could be made that both sides can sell as a good thing.
 
roydo said:
I guess it will come down to pragmatism v political reality.

Like, keeping the existing arrangement, supply lines, and alignment will be fine for pretty much everyone except the loons; day to day like. Johnson has the majority to carry that. But, and its a big but, the EU know free movement of people is unlikely to be spun in the UK, so maybe some fudge could be made that both sides can sell as a good thing.
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Hmm - I am not sure if he currently does. Remember he only needs a 40 vote swing, and recently he:

- has lost the support of every one of his predecessors. His snub of May last week was ridiculous - and May still has her supporters
- has lost Steve Baker and his zealots over the lockdown restrictions

He won't be far off a rebellion if his deal is too hot on alignment. And bare in mind too that a few of the Statutory Instruments still need NI consent, and now more than ever SF / DUP have him over a barrel. They need only hint at a break of the GFA and Biden / the House will mobilise to put the pressure on. And Merkel, astute as ever, got right out in front to hint very broadly at exploring an EU:US FTA again, should that happen we'll be cap in hand to anyone who will have us.


And based on this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54862746

I'd be amazed if the UKIM Bill survives in its current condition. I can't see it.
 
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orly said:
Hmm - I am not sure if he currently does. Remember he only needs a 40 vote swing, and recently he:

- has lost the support of every one of his predecessors. His snub of May last week was ridiculous - and May still has her supporters
- has lost Steve Baker and his zealots over the lockdown restrictions

He won't be far off a rebellion if his deal is too hot on alignment. And bare in mind too that a few of the Statutory Instruments still need NI consent, and now more than ever SF / DUP have him over a barrel. They need only hint at a break of the GFA and Biden / the House will mobilise to put the pressure on. And Merkel, astute as ever, got right out in front to hint very broadly at exploring an EU:US FTA again, should that happen we'll be cap in hand to anyone who will have us.


And based on this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54862746

I'd be amazed if the UKIM Bill survives
Click to expand...

Sake.

Unremitting good news is 2020.
 
orly said:
Honestly maybe. But I think if you're based in GB we've got two options far, far more starkly than before:

- Agree an FTA with the EU that involves very high alignment, and to date the FTA doesn't look anything like that, or;
- Go it alone without US "air support" and take it bigly up the back passage

Very tricky choices to be made in the next 50 days and playing off a very empty hand. The timing of the morally bang on Rashford meal campaign decision this weekend - there's no such thing as a coincidence here. It's a sign of a very conciliatory tone in the next few weeks.
Click to expand...
As predicted by most on here. Both crap options and nowhere near the deal we had. Depressing.
 
sbbefc said:
As predicted by most on here. Both crap options and nowhere near the deal we had. Depressing.
Click to expand...

Oh for sure. You only go into a fight if you think you've got a chance of winning yourself - and even better if your even tougher big brother can back you up if it goes tits up! For the UK at the moment we can't realistically claim either.
 
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