Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Seanjd]

Can't wait till we accept free movement agreement in a couple of years and all the anti-immigrants go mad.

 

[peteblue]

People don't seem to realise the real-term effect of a loss in confidence. For our economy to grow people need to invest. People aren't going to invest in anything remotely uncertain. Pre-Brexit the UK has always been seen as a 'safe bet' to hedge any kind of long-term financial assets and we prospered greatly as a result.

We've lost this key factor to our success, and it'll only hit us (the working men and women) of this country.

And who are contributing the most to this loss of confidence......step forward all the moaning remainers.......

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Wouldn't be surprised with that. Problem is Norway accepts freedom of movement as a concession for access to the single market. I can't see how they spin a situation like that to be a success given what the leave campaign based itself on.

I suspect there might be a concession made on the availability of welfare for EU migrants, and that will be spun as a victory.

 

[Joey66]

Can't wait till we accept free movement agreement in a couple of years and all the anti-immigrants go mad.

No ones anti immigration just controlled immigration!

 

[The Esk]

Come on now Esk, at least use the full data.......And look at the previous history, it was moving south before any Brexit vote.......

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a15b3f1605e44519b9bcd3f02af444a3

Of course it was, the uncertainty of the referendum itself caused a slowdown and this has just been compounded by the decision.

The decision has been made and I stand by it, but to think that the decision has no negative economic consequences in the short term (and long term I believe but that's a different argument) is highly selective in my opinion.

I'm not sure why such a view should be held 'in contempt'

 

[peteblue]

You've just answered your own question mate.

Consumer and business confidence is falling due to the economic uncertainty (Consumer confidence is at it's lowest level since 1990). The uncertainty is due to the fact that we simply don't know how this is going to pan out in terms of the crucial trade deal with the EU. This leads to people being cautious over planned expenditure and investment - whether consumer or business.

Once the average consumer becomes concerned about the outlook they stop spending on nonessentials and the economy contracts i.e. recession.

Re: the downturn that was 'coming anyway', the outlook for the UK was continued growth throughout 2016 and 17.

The EU gives us a free trade platform across our major export market i.e. mainland Europe. It also gives us the EU agreed deals with nations across the globe, which have been negotiated with the economy of scale that the EU has as a collective. The idea that we as the UK could somehow do better deals than those we have now via the EU with it's collective scale defies basic common sense.

Name all these wonderful deals around the world.......here you go.....

Akrotiri and Dhekelia 2003 2004[3] Customs union
Albania 2006 2006[a] 2009[4] SAA Candidate for EU accession
Algeria 2002 2005[5] Euro-mediterranean AA
Andorra 1990 1991[6] Customs union Andorra–EU relations
Bosnia and Herzegovina 2008 2008[a] 2015[7] SAA Potential candidate for EU accession
Chile 2002 2003 2005[8] AA[9]
Egypt 2001 2004[10] Euro-mediterranean AA
Faroe Islands 1996 1997[11] Autonomous entity of Denmark Faroe Islands-EU relations
Georgia 2014 2014 2016[12] AA incl DCFTA Georgia–EU relations
Bailiwick of Guernsey 1972 1973[13]
Iceland 1992 1994[14] EEA Negotiating for EU accession
Isle of Man 1972 1973[13] Customs union
Israel 1995 1996[a][15] 2000[16] Euro-Mediterranean AA Israel–EU relations
Bailiwick of Jersey 1972 1973[13] Customs union
Jordan 1997 2002[17] Euro-Mediterranean AA Jordan–EU relations
Kosovo 2015 2016[18] SAA Kosovo–EU relations
Lebanon 2002 2006[19] Euro-Mediterranean AA Lebanon–EU relations
Liechtenstein 1992 1995[14] EEA Liechtenstein–EU relations
Republic of Macedonia 2001 2001[a] 2004[20] SAA Candidate for EU accession
Mexico 1997 2000[21] FTA[22][23] Mexico–EU relations
Moldova 2014 2014 2016[24] AA incl DCFTA Moldova–EU relations
Monaco 1958 Franco-Monegasque Treaty (customs union)
Montenegro 2007 2008[a] 2010[25] SAA Negotiating for EU accession
Morocco 1996 2000[26] Euro-Mediterranean AA Morocco–EU relations
Norway 1992 1994[14] EEA Norway–EU relations
EU's Overseas Countries and Territories 2001 2001[27][28] Association of the OCTs with the EU
Palestinian Authority 1997 1997[29] Euro-Mediterranean AA Palestine–EU relations
San Marino 1991 1992 2002[30] Customs union San Marino–EU relations
Serbia 2008 2010[a] 2013[31] SAA Negotiating for EU accession
South Africa 1999 2000[32] 2004[33] ATDC[c] South Africa–EU relations
South Korea 2010 2011 2015[34] FTA[35] South Korea–EU relations
Switzerland 1972
1999 1973[36]
2002[37] Trade agreement
Bilateral I agreements Switzerland–EU relations
Tunisia 1995 1998[38] Euro-Mediterranean AA
Turkey 1995[d] 1995[39] Customs union Negotiating for EU accession

 

[DownOnTheUpside]

2 years lad

there's two years once it's triggered anyway, hanging around like this just causes uncertainty
which is no good

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

Name all these wonderful deals around the world.......here you go.....

Akrotiri and Dhekelia 2003 2004[3] Customs union
Albania 2006 2006[a] 2009[4] SAA Candidate for EU accession
Algeria 2002 2005[5] Euro-mediterranean AA
Andorra 1990 1991[6] Customs union Andorra–EU relations
Bosnia and Herzegovina 2008 2008[a] 2015[7] SAA Potential candidate for EU accession
Chile 2002 2003 2005[8] AA[9]
Egypt 2001 2004[10] Euro-mediterranean AA
Faroe Islands 1996 1997[11] Autonomous entity of Denmark Faroe Islands-EU relations
Georgia 2014 2014 2016[12] AA incl DCFTA Georgia–EU relations
Bailiwick of Guernsey 1972 1973[13]
Iceland 1992 1994[14] EEA Negotiating for EU accession
Isle of Man 1972 1973[13] Customs union
Israel 1995 1996[a][15] 2000[16] Euro-Mediterranean AA Israel–EU relations
Bailiwick of Jersey 1972 1973[13] Customs union
Jordan 1997 2002[17] Euro-Mediterranean AA Jordan–EU relations
Kosovo 2015 2016[18] SAA Kosovo–EU relations
Lebanon 2002 2006[19] Euro-Mediterranean AA Lebanon–EU relations
Liechtenstein 1992 1995[14] EEA Liechtenstein–EU relations
Republic of Macedonia 2001 2001[a] 2004[20] SAA Candidate for EU accession
Mexico 1997 2000[21] FTA[22][23] Mexico–EU relations
Moldova 2014 2014 2016[24] AA incl DCFTA Moldova–EU relations
Monaco 1958 Franco-Monegasque Treaty (customs union)
Montenegro 2007 2008[a] 2010[25] SAA Negotiating for EU accession
Morocco 1996 2000[26] Euro-Mediterranean AA Morocco–EU relations
Norway 1992 1994[14] EEA Norway–EU relations
EU's Overseas Countries and Territories 2001 2001[27][28] Association of the OCTs with the EU
Palestinian Authority 1997 1997[29] Euro-Mediterranean AA Palestine–EU relations
San Marino 1991 1992 2002[30] Customs union San Marino–EU relations
Serbia 2008 2010[a] 2013[31] SAA Negotiating for EU accession
South Africa 1999 2000[32] 2004[33] ATDC[c] South Africa–EU relations
South Korea 2010 2011 2015[34] FTA[35] South Korea–EU relations
Switzerland 1972
1999 1973[36]
2002[37] Trade agreement
Bilateral I agreements Switzerland–EU relations
Tunisia 1995 1998[38] Euro-Mediterranean AA
Turkey 1995[d] 1995[39] Customs union Negotiating for EU accession

And your point is what exactly?

Here's a map btw

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149622.pdf

Doesn't it maybe give you a clue as to the complexity of negotiating trade deals and the timescales involved btw?

 

[peteblue]

Of course it was, the uncertainty of the referendum itself caused a slowdown and this has just been compounded by the decision.

The decision has been made and I stand by it, but to think that the decision has no negative economic consequences in the short term (and long term I believe but that's a different argument) is highly selective in my opinion.

I'm not sure why such a view should be held 'in contempt'

I just find it hard to believe that anyone who has been in business cannot see any positives either........

 

[peteblue]

And your point is what exactly?

Here's a map btw

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149622.pdf

Doesn't it maybe give you a clue as to the complexity of negotiating trade deals and the timescales involved btw?

Well let's start from the top shall we.....Akrotiri and Dhekelia, two UK Sovereign military bases.....now of all that great big list, which countries are the most important for trade and how much do we do.......

 

[peteblue]

And your point is what exactly?

Here's a map btw

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149622.pdf

Doesn't it maybe give you a clue as to the complexity of negotiating trade deals and the timescales involved btw?

Oh in terms of the complexity, having 28 countries who have to agree might just perhaps add to the complexity and the time scales. We did used to do this before the EU was born you know......

 

[Toffeelover]

Exactly. Smart decision from her. If Davids can somehow go and get a better deal with the EU and Johnson can go and get better trade deals with the rest of the world she comes out smelling of roses. If they come back with duds she can say she let the Brexiters try and sort it and they couldn't.

Must be the only reason she could of possibly given Johnson the Foreign Secretary role a few days after publicly joking about his lack of international negotiation skills.

Actually it is Liam Fox handling the business end not BoJo.

 

[Toffeelover]

If I was a betting man, I'd say we end up with a Norway like deal, and it will be spun to be a great triumph when in reality nothing much will have changed (minus our reduced influence in Brussels). Given the importance of the City to our economy, I dare say we'll have to bend over backwards to ensure that is protected.

Our trade with the EU is far greater than Norway and our economy is larger so we would have a good deal more weight than Norway.

 

[The Esk]

I just find it hard to believe that anyone who has been in business cannot see any positives either........

There are opportunities, there always are but I'm looking at the economy as a whole and undoubtedly the economy has been damaged by the Brexit decision. That directly will affect most the poorest and most needy in the economy.

 

[Toffeelover]

There are opportunities, there always are but I'm looking at the economy as a whole and undoubtedly the economy has been damaged by the Brexit decision. That directly will affect most the poorest and most needy in the economy.

But if we had voted to remain what opportunities existed for the UK to grow our economy and assist the needy?