Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

Interesting point is we are still in the EU so what has changed to create this panic. Nothing as yet has been put in place about any brexit deal with the EU. Arguably our economy was heading for a downturn even if there had been no vote or as some folk wish a desire to remain. But I will ask again of those who voted to remain - why? What does staying in the EU hold for us apart from increasing bureaucratic control?

You've just answered your own question mate.

Consumer and business confidence is falling due to the economic uncertainty (Consumer confidence is at it's lowest level since 1990). The uncertainty is due to the fact that we simply don't know how this is going to pan out in terms of the crucial trade deal with the EU. This leads to people being cautious over planned expenditure and investment - whether consumer or business.

Once the average consumer becomes concerned about the outlook they stop spending on nonessentials and the economy contracts i.e. recession.

Re: the downturn that was 'coming anyway', the outlook for the UK was continued growth throughout 2016 and 17.

The EU gives us a free trade platform across our major export market i.e. mainland Europe. It also gives us the EU agreed deals with nations across the globe, which have been negotiated with the economy of scale that the EU has as a collective. The idea that we as the UK could somehow do better deals than those we have now via the EU with it's collective scale defies basic common sense.

 

[Joey66]

Mate, businesses hate uncertainty and that's what we have for at least two years possibly much longer. As a result they slow down spending plans. I've seen it over 30 years of commercial life.

The slow down in spending reduces economic activity which creates a recession. It is as clear as day.

So that's what has caused Italy's banks to go bust asked for another hand out as they are stone broke in the Euro - Germany have told them to set up a toxic bank to dump all their losses in it will a big bank as they have been bailed out twice!
Avoiding this till after the German and Frech elections me thinks!
What a fantastic club the EU really is not!
The Euro is artificial it's going bust IMO!

 

[DownOnTheUpside]

wish they'd hurry up and trigger article 50

all of this hanging around benefits absolutely nobody

 

[Number_25]

wish they'd hurry up and trigger article 50

all of this hanging around benefits absolutely nobody

And hand over what little negotiating power we have?

Utter state of things.

 

[bobbydigital]

But could the uncertainty and the associated slowdown be caused by waiting for the referendum outcome and not the outcome itself?

To an extent. If businesses thought they would be better off when Brexit is completed I don't think the uncertainty would cause as much problems.
However it is pretty obvious we aren't going to get a better trade deal with the EU than we have by leaving and to get close to a comparable deal it is likely we will have to accept freedom of movement of people which the public made it clear they don't want.

The people leading businesses aren't dumb, they can see that the business environment will either be worse or it will take a very long time and painful negotiations to basically end up back where we were so investment is either delayed or made in other countries.

 

[Joey66]

And hand over what little negotiating power we have?

Utter state of things.

It's costing 5 grand a day for lawyers to go through the exit of all the stupid EU red tape rules, to release us from them, and replace the sensible replacements, before negotiations take place!

 

[orchard]

The data's been heading for 50, almost uninterrupted, for yonks. There seems to be a lot of people using Brexit as a lame excuse for poor management prior, and a clamour to get one's poor performance on the band waggon before the root cause is unearthed.

Fwiw, I was a marginal remainer.

As forecast, PMI shows we are heading into a sharp recession.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

To an extent. If businesses thought they would be better off when Brexit is completed I don't think the uncertainty would cause as much problems.
However it is pretty obvious we aren't going to get a better trade deal with the EU than we have by leaving and to get close to a comparable deal it is likely we will have to accept freedom of movement of people which the public made it clear they don't want.

The people leading businesses aren't dumb, they can see that the business environment will either be worse or it will take a very long time and painful negotiations to basically end up back where we were so investment is either delayed or made in other countries.

I suspect that a major reason why leave campaigners were put in such positions was that May knows this all too well, and when they come back with a rather lukewarm deal in the sense that we have mostly what we already have but with less power to influence things, she will be able to say that it was leave folk who negotiated it, and put the matter to bed for a generation.

 

[bobbydigital]

I suspect that a major reason why leave campaigners were put in such positions was that May knows this all too well, and when they come back with a rather lukewarm deal in the sense that we have mostly what we already have but with less power to influence things, she will be able to say that it was leave folk who negotiated it, and put the matter to bed for a generation.

Exactly. Smart decision from her. If Davids can somehow go and get a better deal with the EU and Johnson can go and get better trade deals with the rest of the world she comes out smelling of roses. If they come back with duds she can say she let the Brexiters try and sort it and they couldn't.

Must be the only reason she could of possibly given Johnson the Foreign Secretary role a few days after publicly joking about his lack of international negotiation skills.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Exactly. Smart decision from her. If Davids can somehow go and get a better deal with the EU and Johnson can go and get better trade deals with the rest of the world she comes out smelling of roses. If they come back with duds she can say she let the Brexiters try and sort it and they couldn't.

Must be the only reason she could of possibly given Johnson the Foreign Secretary role a few days after publicly joking about his lack of international negotiation skills.

If I was a betting man, I'd say we end up with a Norway like deal, and it will be spun to be a great triumph when in reality nothing much will have changed (minus our reduced influence in Brussels). Given the importance of the City to our economy, I dare say we'll have to bend over backwards to ensure that is protected.

 

[bobbydigital]

If I was a betting man, I'd say we end up with a Norway like deal, and it will be spun to be a great triumph when in reality nothing much will have changed (minus our reduced influence in Brussels). Given the importance of the City to our economy, I dare say we'll have to bend over backwards to ensure that is protected.

Wouldn't be surprised with that. Problem is Norway accepts freedom of movement as a concession for access to the single market. I can't see how they spin a situation like that to be a success given what the leave campaign based itself on.

 

[peteblue]

As forecast, PMI shows we are heading into a sharp recession.

Come on now Esk, at least use the full data.......And look at the previous history, it was moving south before any Brexit vote.......

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a15b3f1605e44519b9bcd3f02af444a3

 

[peteblue]

The data's been heading for 50, almost uninterrupted, for yonks. There seems to be a lot of people using Brexit as a lame excuse for poor management prior, and a clamour to get one's poor performance on the band waggon before the root cause is unearthed.

Fwiw, I was a marginal remainer.

Exactly. It's an easy excuse......

 

[Seanjd]

wish they'd hurry up and trigger article 50

all of this hanging around benefits absolutely nobody

2 years lad

 

[Old Blue 2]

Come on now Esk, at least use the full data.......And look at the previous history, it was moving south before any Brexit vote.......

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/a15b3f1605e44519b9bcd3f02af444a3

And they wonder why the Remainers are held in a certain contempt, when they show only partial figures to suport their contention.

A classic case of 'lies, damn lies, and statistics...'