Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Barnfred 55]

No - it has. This is not an opinion.

The EU agreeing an extension will make a no deal impossible by 31st October. That is a fact.

However..... Without revoking article 50, the only way to avoid a no deal altogether is to agree a deal. That second vote tonight has made the current deal less likely, and has increased the likelihood of an election. So, whilst the short term chances of a no deal have been pretty much negated, the long term prospects are still very much up in the air. That is an opinion.

 

[Blues Harp]

Theoretically, he could do either of those things tomorrow and pass it easily. Indeed, the customs union is Labour's position - Corbyn is a Brexiteer, he wants to leave the EU wholeheartedly, but he's a soft Brexiteer who wants the custom union.

In reality, no, he can't. He's politically boxed into a hole due to his red lines, just like May was. And realistically, he simply won't want to - the point of Brexit for him and his mates is massive deregulation and a race to the bottom to profiteer.

Corbyn will take an election - he has no choice. Ignore the rhetoric and look at it logically - as much as I actually hate Corbyn, he's spot on to spot the danger of an accidental no deal and avoid an election until its' off the table.

Once Johnson accepts the extension, an election will be on the table the next day and will happen. He has no choice. If he refused it at that point, even his own supporters would be laughing at him - he'd have no reason to not have one.

It is only the Tory party spin about him "being a chicken" etc. that makes anyone believe Corbyn is ducking an election for anything other than the reason given of avoiding no deal.

Why do you hate Corbyn? You have made some very good and well thought out arguments against leaving. I don't know how you vote in a GE but I suspect it would not be for the Tories. I have my own doubts about JC but only as a person who has had so much crap aimed at him by the media that people have already decided that labour will not win with him in charge. Tbh I don't think he expected to be leader in the first place, but I think he is a principled man who is prepared to speak out against the many injustices at home and in the wider world...marked difference from other party leaders. Anyway keep on posting your views..

 

[Jebus_lives]

The EU agreeing an extension will make a no deal impossible by 31st October. That is a fact.

However..... Without revoking article 50, the only way to avoid a no deal altogether is to agree a deal. That second vote tonight has made the current deal less likely, and has increased the likelihood of an election. So, whilst the short term chances of a no deal have been pretty much negated, the long term prospects are still very much up in the air. That is an opinion.

I wonder if the EU could just say 'we agree an extension until you sort this mess out yourselves'

Might be helpful to prevent the obsession with deadline and ultimatum. Give parliament the time to debate the Withdrawal properly, without politically motivated deadlines and red lines and you may get a deal passed.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

The EU agreeing an extension will make a no deal impossible by 31st October. That is a fact.

However..... Without revoking article 50, the only way to avoid a no deal altogether is to agree a deal. That second vote tonight has made the current deal less likely, and has increased the likelihood of an election. So, whilst the short term chances of a no deal have been pretty much negated, the long term prospects are still very much up in the air. That is an opinion.

The other option is that the EU grant an extension till January and then parliament review the withdrawal bill and propose amendments. Boris could then decide to swerve the ERG and agree to various amendments. Essentially reworking his deal but this time with the backing of parliament.

He takes it back to EU and they agree it - back it comes to parliament where it's made law and we leave with a deal.

.... Wait! that's far too sensible. Lets have a GE and end up with a hung parliament with no overall tory majority and yes we are back at square one.

I think it's time to face it that our political system is incapable of delivering brexit. So at this point it needs to go back to the people to decide in a second referendum.

 

[Khalekan]

try being involved in it and you’ll understand my frustration. The entire thing is a mess, it’s a political football that they’re all kick around. Causing massive confusion for businesses, small and big, who are spending hundreds of thousands of pounds in preparedness. In all my years working this is the first time I’ve seriously looked at other positions because becoming almost impossible to deal with this absolute mess

Call a GE and someone can get a majority and end this utter sham. I’m not even arsed anymore, cancel the entire thing or go no deal. I couldn’t give a dogs arsehole

And what happens if someone doesn’t get a majority.........apparently the most like outcome.

Trying to push through a Referendum result which itself was a tight finish without a working majority was always going to prove an impossible task.

There should have been a weighted majority when they held that wretched Referendum.

Cancelling the whole darned thing is the only sensible course of action.

 

[Tubey]

Why do you hate Corbyn? You have made some very good and well thought out arguments against leaving. I don't know how you vote in a GE but I suspect it would not be for the Tories. I have my own doubts about JC but only as a person who has had so much crap aimed at him by the media that people have already decided that labour will not win with him in charge. Tbh I don't think he expected to be leader in the first place, but I think he is a principled man who is prepared to speak out against the many injustices at home and in the wider world...marked difference from other party leaders. Anyway keep on posting your views..

It'd take me all day to detail exactly why, but I'll keep it brief - I'm a believer that the worst things can be done with the best of intentions. I believe Corbyn wants to help people.

However, I also believe that his ideology is so inherently flawed that it would harm those he sought to help in practice. He is an idealist, not a pragmatist. He's not someone prepared to admit he is wrong and change his view, nor someone prepared to compromise.

To use an analogy, say he had one idea to save one person - he'd pursue that idea to save that one person, even if it meant killing 100, because it was the ideologically correct course of action to him. He wouldn't deliberately let those 100 people die, but he wouldn't see it as a consequence of his own actions and look elsewhere for the reason it happened.

I don't think his policies are right for the country and would do us long term damage. I don't think he's electable to a large portion of the populace either, so even if I did support him, which I don't, I'd have to recognise he'll never be able to put his policies into practice and effect change.

Plus, I'm personally a moderate. I take issues on face value. I don't let an overall ideology dictate the way I think. I'm prepared to change my view and admit I was wrong on any given issue. I am, in short, the total opposite of Jeremy Corbyn. I have as many morals and principles as he does, but I display them in a very different way.

 

[davek]

Farage's lot will get about 18% of the vote in this coming election. It'll be carnage for the Tories.

 

[Khalekan]

Farage's lot will get about 18% of the vote in this coming election. It'll be carnage for the Tories.

They will be obliterated, possibly wiped out, in Scotland.

If they lost all 13 seats up there that would be a 26 seat swing in the HOC votes.

 

[Tubey]

Farage's lot will get about 18% of the vote in this coming election. It'll be carnage for the Tories.

It'd be fairly easy for Johnson to curtail the Brexit Party if he's smart.

He'd have to completely rule out any coalition with them and paint the Tories as the only realistic way to get Brexit done by gaining a majority. He'd paint a vote for BXP as a wasted vote. It's not a time for a protest vote etc.

He'd also be able to paint the BXP as attempting to wreck Brexit by diluting the vote in Tory seats and targets.

But we'll see.

 

[Carl O'Ancelotti]

And what happens if someone doesn’t get a majority.........apparently the most like outcome.

Trying to push through a Referendum result which itself was a tight finish without a working majority was always going to prove an impossible task.

There should have been a weighted majority when they held that wretched Referendum.

Cancelling the whole darned thing is the only sensible course of action.

And it should have required approval by each of the 4 constituent parts of the UK for it to be passed.

This business of forcing the will of a slender majority on an individual country or part of another country, both of whom voted no, was always a recipe for chaos.

 

[Kurt.]

 

[Barnfred 55]

The other option is that the EU grant an extension till January and then parliament review the withdrawal bill and propose amendments. Boris could then decide to swerve the ERG and agree to various amendments. Essentially reworking his deal but this time with the backing of parliament.

He takes it back to EU and they agree it - back it comes to parliament where it's made law and we leave with a deal.

.... Wait! that's far too sensible. Lets have a GE and end up with a hung parliament with no overall tory majority and yes we are back at square one.

I think it's time to face it that our political system is incapable of delivering brexit. So at this point it needs to go back to the people to decide in a second referendum.

Ha ha. If only. Anything to get an end to this mess. Never going to happen though.

Much more likely is that Johnson dumps the withdrawal bill before it gets hijacked by Corbyn. Then jumps into bed with Farage before the election so he doesn't lose half his votes to the BP. Scary times mate.

 

[Kurt.]

It'd be fairly easy for Johnson to curtail the Brexit Party if he's smart.

He'd have to completely rule out any coalition with them and paint the Tories as the only realistic way to get Brexit done by gaining a majority. He'd paint a vote for BXP as a wasted vote. It's not a time for a protest vote etc.

He'd also be able to paint the BXP as attempting to wreck Brexit by diluting the vote in Tory seats and targets.

But we'll see.

With respect to some (well not really) the Brexit party faithful will swallow anything and everything Farage feeds them ... nothing Boris says will sway them as they are not the brightest of people at the best of times and will always vote for their hero Nigel... it would never occur to them they would be damaging their own wishes

 

[tsubaki]

It'd take me all day to detail exactly why, but I'll keep it brief - I'm a believer that the worst things can be done with the best of intentions. I believe Corbyn wants to help people.

However, I also believe that his ideology is so inherently flawed that it would harm those he sought to help in practice. He is an idealist, not a pragmatist. He's not someone prepared to admit he is wrong and change his view, nor someone prepared to compromise.

To use an analogy, say he had one idea to save one person - he'd pursue that idea to save that one person, even if it meant killing 100, because it was the ideologically correct course of action to him. He wouldn't deliberately let those 100 people die, but he wouldn't see it as a consequence of his own actions and look elsewhere for the reason it happened.

I don't think his policies are right for the country and would do us long term damage. I don't think he's electable to a large portion of the populace either, so even if I did support him, which I don't, I'd have to recognise he'll never be able to put his policies into practice and effect change.

Plus, I'm personally a moderate. I take issues on face value. I don't let an overall ideology dictate the way I think. I'm prepared to change my view and admit I was wrong on any given issue. I am, in short, the total opposite of Jeremy Corbyn. I have as many morals and principles as he does, but I display them in a very different way.

Sorry Tubey, but you are accusing Corbyn of precisely the sort of thing (ideological zealotry) you are doing here.

He has compromised, a lot - that is why Labour now back a second referendum, why the 2017 manifesto was so incredibly moderate compared to what people were expecting and why anti-semites and sex pests are now actually dealt with in ways that they never were beforehand. There have been no purges (except for the 2016 LE when many of Corbyn's support were denied a vote), and no MPs have been thrown out despite considerable levels of bad political behaviour. Where he has stood up and come into conflict with some of the rest of the PLP - over Russia for example, or the strikes on Syria - I think events have proved him to have been correct (especially over Russia, where the inaction of the government should now be obvious).

As for his policies, I emphatically disagree - I grew up in a country that had a nationalised railway, that had free university education, that had nationalised industries, which had easily available social housing, which was more equal and which had a higher tax rate. I know it can work, better than whatever it is we have now.

 

[Tubey]

Sorry Tubey, but you are accusing Corbyn of precisely the sort of thing (ideological zealotry) you are doing here.

He has compromised, a lot - that is why Labour now back a second referendum, why the 2017 manifesto was so incredibly moderate compared to what people were expecting and why anti-semites and sex pests are now actually dealt with in ways that they never were beforehand. There have been no purges (except for the 2016 LE when many of Corbyn's support were denied a vote), and no MPs have been thrown out despite considerable levels of bad political behaviour. Where he has stood up and come into conflict with some of the rest of the PLP - over Russia for example, or the strikes on Syria - I think events have proved him to have been correct (especially over Russia, where the inaction of the government should now be obvious).

As for his policies, I emphatically disagree - I grew up in a country that had a nationalised railway, that had free university education, that had nationalised industries, which had easily available social housing, which was more equal and which had a higher tax rate. I know it can work, better than whatever it is we have now.

I'm baffled how you can read what I just said and come to the outcome of "ideological zealot", but oh well. I know you disagree with me, I know the reasons - that's fine. But I'd trust you to lead the Labour party instead of Corbyn, because with you I at least get the impression that you're able to, when needed, see the need for realism over pure ideology.