Current Affairs EU In or Out

[orly]

Pro-Brexit Tory MP 'can't support deal without seeing text'
Steve Baker, who chairs the ERG group of pro-Brexit Tory MPs, says he "hopes" the group "will be with the prime minister", but there are "thousands of people out there counting on us not to let them down".
Speaking to reporters as he left talks in Downing Street, Mr Baker said the group had explained its concerns in "minute detail", and "great progress" had been made in discussions with No 10.
"We are just really wishing the prime minister well and hoping he has total success.
"We know there will be compromises, but we will be looking at this deal in minute detail with a view to supporting it but until we see that text, we can't say".




@Joey66 thousands of people?!? Surely he means 17.4millions

 

[DowellsLeftPeg]

So much factual inaccuracies

Italy and Greece levels have both dropped from the start of the year, but still relatively high

Greece Youth Unemployment Rate

Youth Unemployment Rate in Greece increased to 16 percent in January from 13.90 percent in December of 2025. This page provides the latest reported value for - Greece Youth Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic...

tradingeconomics.com

 

[orly]

He hasn't even seen it ffs

 

[Tubey]

Interesting, but I'm assuming there's a workaround to it where Northern Ireland isn't classed as a separate customs territory under the terms of the deal.

He hasn't even seen it ffs

Yeah essentially this ^

I know Rees-Mogg/Johnson et al are incompetent morons but they can't be this incompetent.

 

[dublinbluenose]

Italy and Greece levels have both dropped from the start of the year, but still relatively high

Greece Youth Unemployment Rate

Youth Unemployment Rate in Greece increased to 16 percent in January from 13.90 percent in December of 2025. This page provides the latest reported value for - Greece Youth Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic...

tradingeconomics.com

High levels of youth unemployment in Italy and Greece have nothing to do with immigration and neither economy is near full employment.

 

[Tubey]

No deal tonight.

DUP must be holding out for Bentley's and gold taps for their houses.

I think the DUP are a non-factor at this point - I think they've been totally and completely bought off.

We'll see.

 

[Ballymoney1]

Hard to see how the DUP come out of this looking well. If they scupper this deal the brexiteers on mainland Britain will hold them responsible for Britain's failure to leave by October 31st. Back this deal and they will be pillored and called lundies back home by the hard liners (mainly their voting base) because they have effectively put a border in the Irish Sea.
Makes you wonder what they were expecting when they backed Brexit in the first place. You can't cheer on the likes of their chum Nigel Farage in advocating a hard brexit then rule out any potential border checks with their EU neighbours because it doesn't suit them.

 

[catcherintherye]

One-policy Remainers will go Lib Dem, sure.

By the time a GE comes around, Labour voters will vote Labour. Back to partisan politics. That's why EU / local council voting patterns are historically so different to GE.

Labour isn't the Party of Remain, or revoke, or 2nd Ref. It's just firm on no No Deal, which make alotta sense.

Lib Dems - beyond remaining, their domestic agenda has no national exposure.

Perhaps they can betray the student vote again... or something

Yes I agree with that. I saw a projection from a politico the other day who said that while a deal going through would be good for Johnson, it would also be ok for Corbyn too as it will move the conversation on from Brexit, where he is seen as a bit all over the place. It gets it onto the terrain he's happier in, and terrain that is far more favourable. There are deep contradictions in what the tories want to do domestically and I sense these open up.

As you say, the real losers in this would be the Lib Dems, who for all their machiavellian games will not have prevented Brexit. Their domestic pitch is to the right of the Conservatives currently, which will suit Labour fine. It's hard to see demoralisation not setting in for them though if a deal sets in.

In terms of a free vote, is your thinking it is the best way to minimise the divides in the PLP on the question?

 

[catcherintherye]

Largely correct, but with FoM, frictionless trade, they have large influence and power over member states policy. We've seen the migrant crises, economic impacts of unmanaged migration, trade and taxation, welfare issues

The impact of "unmanaged migration" (which is a myth) has been a net contribution to the Uk economy.

 

[Joey66]

Pro-Brexit Tory MP 'can't support deal without seeing text'
Steve Baker, who chairs the ERG group of pro-Brexit Tory MPs, says he "hopes" the group "will be with the prime minister", but there are "thousands of people out there counting on us not to let them down".
Speaking to reporters as he left talks in Downing Street, Mr Baker said the group had explained its concerns in "minute detail", and "great progress" had been made in discussions with No 10.
"We are just really wishing the prime minister well and hoping he has total success.
"We know there will be compromises, but we will be looking at this deal in minute detail with a view to supporting it but until we see that text, we can't say".




@Joey66 thousands of people?!? Surely he means 17.4millions

Brexitirs are watching HOC delegates Vince greens Lammy, co avid remainers pushing for another people s vote.....
They are pathetic more uncertainty....
Get this divorce done and then have a trade deal in transition. Which Germany and f
France don't want the UK to excel on leaving....
That says it all.....

 

[orly]

Yeah essentially this ^

I know Rees-Mogg/Johnson et al are incompetent morons but they can't be this incompetent.

The QC's intentions are good, and Mogg is definitely incompetent enough but as you say, no one bar an incredibly small number of bureaucrats have seen the new WA.

Laura K ain't seen it.

Robbie P ain't seen it

I very very very much doubt Sammy and Arl-ene have seen it.

And JoQC hasn't seen it

Quite how Parliament can see the new stuff and then debate it on Saturday (500+ detailed pages) is .... er.... anyone's guess.

 

[JimmyJeffers]

Sure thing, so as a part of the SM, we are competing with other EU countries on trade. Some subsidies or support can be considered to give a competitive advantage, and if they don't, it's probably making our products less competitive to EU counterparts. The higher our standards, often the smaller our market due to price

As a crude example, an increase in minimum wage, could see increased EU immigration, but in other areas see jobs relocate to other parts of EU

As you approach full employment, its often likely that more people will flow in to fill roles, so often EU countries with high living standards get high migration which leads towards high youth unemployment. Over 30% of 18-25 year olds in Spain, Italy are unemployed, it was 40% 18-25 unemployed in Greece when I last looked

This ends up creating a skills gaps for young workers, and the more talented ones tend to emigrate, as the economy struggles

All very good. So welfare then...

 

[Tubey]

The QC's intentions are good, and Mogg is definitely incompetent enough but as you say, no one bar an incredibly small number of bureaucrats have seen the new WA.

Laura K ain't seen it.

Robbie P ain't seen it

I very very very much doubt Sammy and Arl-ene have seen it.

And JoQC hasn't seen it

Quite how Parliament can see the new stuff and then debate it on Saturday (500+ detailed pages) is .... er.... anyone's guess.

Which, of course, is the whole point - they want the deal shoved in their faces before they can digest it so they panic pass it through out of fear of the vocal constituents in Leave voting areas, who have paralyzed MPs to act against common sense since the vote.

But whatever - if it passes, it passes. No ifs and buts. But if it is possibly illegal, I have no problem at all with legal challenges to it. But lets wait to see the minutiae of it first.

 

[orly]

Also the BBC running with "No Deal Tonight" breaking news off .... ONE government source.

Makes Adam Jones at the Echo look like a Reuters veteran ffs.

Where's the ratification from several sources

 

[Tubey]

Also the BBC running with "No Deal Tonight" breaking news off .... ONE government source.

Makes Adam Jones at the Echo look like a Reuters veteran ffs.

Where's the ratification from several sources

Hi mate, it's 2019 - real news has been dead for at least a decade.

All you need now is a tweet from someone with over 50k followers to be able to go all in.

Journos these days can't even spell verification, let alone look for it.