Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Tubey]

The problem you have, is in essence they have ceased to be the Conservative and Unionist party for a long time. The argument is too difficult to make and provides very little capital/gains in key areas now. It's not a vote winner. And that is what matters to a political party, who increasingly will bend every rule, seemingly break multiple rules, lie to Parliament, lie to the monarch etc in order to maintain their own power base.

In Scotland they have stoked the fires of independence. In 2014 they promised them a whole range of proposals and guarantees if they stayed. They were ignored. They then ignored the will of the 2015 election in Scotland (which as explicitly anti-austerity) and ignored the vote in Scotland (where every single constituency voted to remain). What you have is a cabal of largely southern English Mp's who believe the myth that they create all the wealth so only their view matters.

It comes as no surprise NI will be sold out. The preservation of their rule, if only for another few months will trump the sacrifices made by the unionist community in Ireland every day of the week.

I don't think they stopped being unionists - I just think they got so incredibly arrogant and dismissive of certain areas of the United Kingdom that they think they can do what they want and run roughshod over people and expect them to just bend over and take it.

I honestly don't think they see the danger to the union at all. They're blinded by ego and greed.

 

[catcherintherye]

...EU Chief Negotiator, Michel Barnier, has been given the green light from the EU27 to enter a phase of intense negotiations with Britain.

I suspect a deal will put Labour in a very difficult position.

Labour's big mistake in this has been to focus so heavily in No Deal. A deal provides short term problems for Labour given that, however in the long term a soft deal, which the aspects of the ERG and particularly the BXP will claim as a surrender will damage the Tories enormously.

For what it's worth, I don't think any deal he gets back from the EU will pass the test of the ERG, who will vote against Johnson and thus eliminate any credibility he has.

 

[catcherintherye]

I don't think they stopped being unionists - I just think they got so incredibly arrogant and dismissive of certain areas of the United Kingdom that they think they can do what they want and run roughshod over people and expect them to just bend over and take it.

I honestly don't think they see the danger to the union at all. They're blinded by ego and greed.

Yes hard to argue with any of that. It started with Thatcher in the 80's and her attitude to places like Liverpool and has expanded out now. Liverpool, most Northern Cities, Scotland, students, remainers etc. They've cut themselves off from so many people, outside of the elderly they've got very little support left.

 

[spectateur]

I'm nothing like knowledgeable on anything Irish, but surely if this pushes the north back towards the south, that will reignite many of the troubles that were caused by people not wanting that to happen?

Ultimately it could lead to the reunifaction of Ireland.
That's what the Irish people voted for in 1922. The UK government intervened and kept 6 of the 9 counties of Ulster back in the UK.

 

[Khalekan]

It comes as no surprise NI will be sold out. The preservation of their rule, if only for another few months will trump the sacrifices made by the unionist community in Ireland every day of the week.

NI is hardly being “sold out”, catcher.

The people there voted to to Remain and they still wish to Remain.

They returned two Remain candidates for their three seats in the recent Euro election.

Opinini polls show the majority of them are in favour of the Backstop......and almost the entirety of the business community, farming community and trade unions want the Backstop.

In short....if this new agreement is indeed to include the NI only Backstop then that will go down well in NI, the windbags in the DUP notwithstanding.

 

[catcherintherye]

NI is hardly being “sold out”, catcher.

The people there voted to to Remain and they still wish to Remain.

They returned two Remain candidates for their three seats in the recent Euro election.

Opinini polls show the majority of them are in favour of the Backstop......and almost the entirety of the business community, farming community and trade unions want the Backstop.

In short....if this new agreement is indeed to include the NI only Backstop then that will go down well in NI, the windbags in the DUP notwithstanding.

Yes that is a very fair point and I appreciate the language is being emotive. However sticking a border in the Sea with the UK is to some extent a sell out of unionism.

That didn't need to happen either. That's what is lost from the appalling standards of "impartial" journalism in the BBC (and others). May produced a number of stupid red lines, and boxed us in on the question of immigration. She didn't have to do that. She felt if she did that, the tory right would then get behind her, they showed how trustworthy and reliable they were subsequently.

This was not raised anywhere near widely enough at the time, and hasn't been subsequently. Laura Kuensbergs coverage of this has been absolutely negligent bordering on corrupt.

 

[brieverton]

NI is hardly being “sold out”, catcher.

The people there voted to to Remain and they still wish to Remain.

They returned two Remain candidates for their three seats in the recent Euro election.

Opinini polls show the majority of them are in favour of the Backstop......and almost the entirety of the business community, farming community and trade unions want the Backstop.

In short....if this new agreement is indeed to include the NI only Backstop then that will go down well in NI, the windbags in the DUP notwithstanding.

This is the point really. The DUP of all people cannot be in favour of consent when it suits them and not when it doesn't.

Northern Ireland is a special case and it is not as simple as overriding the wishes of a clear majority who voted to remain simply by subsuming that vote within the UK as a whole.

By the end of this, the DUP will have achieved absolutely nothing and will have harmed their cause in the long run. Middle-class/business/farming voters who flocked to them from the UUP will be looking for another political home.

This crux had to be arrived at sooner or later from the moment the UK and Ireland entered the EU.

Privately it must be sobering for Arlene and Co. They are to be used as the Tories see fit and discarded when of no use and/or there is something more appealing on the table.

 

[Ruairi77]

Yes that is a very fair point and I appreciate the language is being emotive. However sticking a border in the Sea with the UK is to some extent a sell out of unionism.

That didn't need to happen either. That's what is lost from the appalling standards of "impartial" journalism in the BBC (and others). May produced a number of stupid red lines, and boxed us in on the question of immigration. She didn't have to do that. She felt if she did that, the tory right would then get behind her, they showed how trustworthy and reliable they were subsequently.

This was not raised anywhere near widely enough at the time, and hasn't been subsequently. Laura Kuensbergs coverage of this has been absolutely negligent bordering on corrupt.

I'm not 100% sure but I'd imagine a majority of unionists would support leaving the EU with a NI only backstop. Christ, it's the definition of having your cake and eating it!

 

[Khalekan]

Yes that is a very fair point and I appreciate the language is being emotive. However sticking a border in the Sea with the UK is to some extent a sell out of unionism.

That didn't need to happen either. That's what is lost from the appalling standards of "impartial" journalism in the BBC (and others). May produced a number of stupid red lines, and boxed us in on the question of immigration. She didn't have to do that. She felt if she did that, the tory right would then get behind her, they showed how trustworthy and reliable they were subsequently.

This was not raised anywhere near widely enough at the time, and hasn't been subsequently. Laura Kuensbergs coverage of this has been absolutely negligent bordering on corrupt.

I am sorry if I have little sympathy for unionists feeling “sold out” by a border down the Irish Sea.....the nationalists have had to put up with a much more intrusive border through the middle of their country for a century now

Everything else you say is spot on.

The BBC in general and Laura K in particular have had a very bad Brexit.

And the lack of debate during the Referendum and indeed in the year that followed it about the border which we stuck in Ireland was absolutely criminal.

Of course it wasn’t helped by the two largest political parties in NI.....one of whom acted as cheerleaders for the Brexit wreckers and the other refusing to go into Westminster on behalf of the majority of NI citizens who despiise Brexit.

 

[davek]

If the talk of a NI only backstop is true (or something like that) can the DUP really get behind it or the ERG for that matter?

It would be a staggering surrender if they did.

And the BXT Party will be all over it if they do.

 

[davek]

I don’t want a “deal” now.

I want any version of a Tory Brexit voted down, Johnson’s toes held to the fire by writing the letter and no election.

The case for a new Referendum is now unanswerable and that should be held before an Election IMO.

I think this is the plan under Standing Orders next week....Parliament to vote for a fresh Referendum.

Nissan and Sunderland should be the final and derfining light bulb moment for any reasonable Brexit voter (as opposed to yer dyed in the wool, fully signed up member of the Brexit cult for whom redemption is impossible).

I've been against Ref II on principle. I'm going to stick to that but I'd understand if others wanted any deal ratified with another vote.

Ideally for me we'd have a Labour Govnt that negotiated a Brexit deal that protected the people of NI, the rights of workers, consumers and the environment.

I know that isn;t going to happen, but that would suit me.

 

[Khalekan]

This is the point really. The DUP of all people cannot be in favour of consent when it suits them and not when it doesn't.

Privately it must be sobering for Arlene and Co. They are to be used as the Tories see fit and discarded when of no use and/or there is something more appealing on the table.

They should be well prepared for it.

The Godtather of Ulster Unionism had this to say nearly 100 years ago.

 

[Carl O'Ancelotti]

If the talk of a NI only backstop is true (or something like that) can the DUP really get behind it or the ERG for that matter?

It would be a staggering surrender if they did.

And the BXT Party will be all over it if they do.

It would also mean that the last 2 years have been a complete waste of everybody's time.

And that Boris 'the backstop must be ditched' Johnson finally accepts that it can't be despite all his threats and bluster over the last few months.

I still can't believe that he has agreed to it so won't believe it until I see it. And if he has, he would still have to sell it to the DUP who will reject it. This is far from over.

 

[davek]

It would also mean that the last 2 years have been a complete waste of everybody's time.

And that Boris 'the backstop must be ditched' Johnson finally accepts that it can't be despite all his threats and bluster over the last few months.

I still can't believe that he has agreed to it so won't believe it until I see it. And if he has, he would still have to sell it to the DUP who will reject it. This is far from over.

This x1000%.

 

[Ruairi77]

If the talk of a NI only backstop is true (or something like that) can the DUP really get behind it or the ERG for that matter?

It would be a staggering surrender if they did.

And the BXT Party will be all over it if they do.

wonder what the chances are of Johnson getting labour to vote for his deal on condition that he calls a GE if it passes.
He'll think he can win because he's delivered brexit, they'll think they can win because the tories will be split over loyalty to the DUP.
mad times continue.
Could be waaay off here tho.