Current Affairs EU In or Out

[tsubaki]

What happens if the DUP lead a vote to end the agreement after the first 4 years, where does that leave the Republic and the GFA? As in that scenario it’d mean a return to a hard border.

For that reason alone it’s a dead duck imo.

TBF the DUP don't even have to lead a vote - if Stormont comes back, they can veto it as "representing the Unionist community" without having a majority (which SF pointed out almost as soon as this came out).

 

[Aberblue]

Of course. And I wonder how many of the ERG will support this.

I see Farage has condemned it.

It's been clear for ages that whatever the deal with the EU was, Farage would condemn it as a betrayal. If the government somehow managed to get the EU to give every British citizen a pension of £10,000 a year Farage would scream because it isn't £20,000.

 

[Dymak]

What happens if the DUP lead a vote to end the agreement after the first 4 years, where does that leave the Republic and the GFA? As in that scenario it’d mean a return to a hard border.

For that reason alone it’s a dead duck imo.

I don't know enough about the Northern Irish political system to know for sure. But I guess it would depend on how such a vote was framed. If the default position is regulatory alignment, then I don't see how that could be vetoed, as it would be the default position. A vote to change it would have to be passed. In which case, the Northern Irish government will have made it's own decision through democratic means.

I do however admit, to not knowing exactly how the Northern Irish government works.

 

[Khalekan]

Commentators much closer to all this than me cite Johnson as having a minority of 43 as it stands.

As for the deal, not gonna lie, it seems ok to me. Pragmatic at least. Devil in the detail I guess.

The devil is in the detail all right.

If this "deal" was accepted the DUP wound be given a veto to exercise when the Regulatory Alignment bit came up for renewal in four years time.

(if there is a sitting NI government at that time)


And that just ain't going to happen...nor should it.

Basically, if this "deal" was to go through, there will be a Border Poll before that renewal date in 2024 and IMO the next bit of Brexit would them get under way...Britain out of Ireland.

And the chances are the Scots will have already left the UK by then.

 

[roydo]

I don't know enough about the Northern Irish political system to know for sure. But I guess it would depend on how such a vote was framed. If the default position is regulatory alignment, then I don't see how that could be vetoed, as it would be the default position. A vote to change it would have to be passed. In which case, the Northern Irish government will have made it's own decision through democratic means.

I do however admit, to not knowing exactly how the Northern Irish government works.

That kinda sums this mess up. You dont know. But, I assume, you voted leave anyrate.

Democracy? Not so sure myself.

 

[Carl O'Ancelotti]

I'm not taking the mick at all. I think it's a perfectly reasonable proposal that involves a massive climbdown from the DUP which involves regulatory alignment in Northern Ireland until the government of Northern Ireland decides otherwise.

Those opposing it simply want to stop Brexit in its entirety, and will be jumping up and down about the creation of a border in Ireland, as if one hasn't been in existence ever since the state of Northern Ireland was created.

It disappeared 20 years ago.

Accepting regulatory alignment on agricultural goods only is not "a massive climbdown" from the DUP; it is merely scratching the surface of solving the SM issue.

Neither is Johnson's claim that he has made significant concessions. In fact he has done exactly the opposite by reneging on the promise made in 2017 not to have any customs checks in Ireland.

Liars the lot of them.

 

[Dymak]

It disappeared 20 years ago.

Accepting regulatory alignment on agricultural goods only is not "a massive climbdown" from the DUP; it is merely scratching the surface of solving the SM issue.

Neither is Johnson's claim that he has made significant concessions. In fact he has done exactly the opposite by reneging on the promise made in 2017 not to have any customs checks in Ireland.

Liars the lot of them.

It really didn't disappear 20 years ago. There has always been a border ever since the state of Northern Ireland was created. When you cross the border now you are entering a different country. The laws change. The government changes. The currency changes. Your mobile phone connection changes. It's simply not true to say the border has ever disappeared.

 

[Khalekan]

I don't know enough about the Northern Irish political system to know for sure. But I guess it would depend on how such a vote was framed. If the default position is regulatory alignment, then I don't see how that could be vetoed, as it would be the default position. A vote to change it would have to be passed. In which case, the Northern Irish government will have made it's own decision through democratic means.

I do however admit, to not knowing exactly how the Northern Irish government works.

It is what they call a "Petition of Concern" and it is designed to ensure one of the traditions in NI cannot be made to agree with a new law if they feel it works against them.

Even if the majority of members back it.

It us a worthy enough idea in principal, based on the notion that change must command the support of ths majority on both sides...."parallel consent" as it is dubbed.

However, the DUP continually abuse it.

Using this "Petition of Concern" they have blocked majority votes for Same Sex Marriage, Irish Language rights and Abortion Reform.

This is one of the biggest stumbling blocks to Storming being restored....the other parties want it gone, the DUP want it retained

Go figure

So allowing them to have such power over renewing the Regulatory Alignment thingy in 2024 would be tantamount to setting a fox to guard your chicken coop.

 

[Dymak]

That kinda sums this mess up. You dont know. But, I assume, you voted leave anyrate.

Democracy? Not so sure myself.

I didn't vote at all. Never have tbh. I'm going to assume that many of those that are saying it definitely won't work also don't know either. With the EU being fine with them having the power to bring an end to regulatory alignment in relation to customs, but objecting to the same power being given to the government of Northern Ireland.

 

[Carl O'Ancelotti]

It really didn't disappear 20 years ago. There has always been a border ever since the state of Northern Ireland was created. When you cross the border now you are entering a different country. The laws change. The government changes. The currency changes. Your mobile phone connection changes. It's simply not true to say the border has ever disappeared.

I live right beside it and I can assure you it has.

 

[Dymak]

It is what they call a "Petition of Concern" and it is designed to ensure one of the traditions in NI cannot be made to agree with a new law if they feel it works against them.

Even if the majority of members back it.

It us a worthy enough idea in principal, based on the notion that change must command the support of ths majority on both sides...."parallel consent" as it is dubbed.

However, the DUP continually abuse it.

Using this "Petition of Concern" they have blocked majority votes for Same Sex Marriage, Irish Language rights and Abortion Reform.

This is one of the biggest stumbling blocks to Storming being restored....the other parties want it gone, the DUP want it retained

Go figure

So allowing them to have such power over renewing the Regulatory Alignment thingy in 2024 would be tantamount to setting a fox to guard your chicken coop.

Fair enough mate. But am I correct in stating that the DUP have only been successful in maintaining existing law with regards to abortion, and that the DUP don't have the power to set their own laws on abortion?

 

[Dymak]

I live right beside it and I can assure you it has.

The state of Northern Ireland doesn't exist? There are only one set of laws on the island of Ireland? Only one currency? One government?

I've spent plenty of time in Armagh, and I know for certain that the border absolutely exists.

 

[roydo]

I didn't vote at all. Never have tbh. I'm going to assume that many of those that are saying it definitely won't work also don't know either. With the EU being fine with them having the power to bring an end to regulatory alignment in relation to customs, but objecting to the same power being given to the government of Northern Ireland.

So why are you bothered?

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

I don't know enough about the Northern Irish political system to know for sure. But I guess it would depend on how such a vote was framed. If the default position is regulatory alignment, then I don't see how that could be vetoed, as it would be the default position. A vote to change it would have to be passed. In which case, the Northern Irish government will have made it's own decision through democratic means.

I do however admit, to not knowing exactly how the Northern Irish government works.

That’s the entire point. NI would be making a unilateral decision that compromised a UN treaty and endangered the fragile peace.

I can’t see the EU leaving Ireland so exposed to Unionist will.

 

[Khalekan]

It disappeared 20 years ago.

Accepting regulatory alignment on agricultural goods only is not "a massive climbdown" from the DUP; it is merely scratching the surface of solving the SM issue.

Neither is Johnson's claim that he has made significant concessions. In fact he has done exactly the opposite by reneging on the promise made in 2017 not to have any customs checks in Ireland.

Liars the lot of them.

You know Mark, half of me is thinking that this idea should not be dismissed out of hand.

The Good Friday Agreement loosened British control in Ulster (6 of 9)

Regulatory Alignment between North and South, independent of England loosens it further.

Bank it now and let demographics and the Scots finish the job

What say you, @Armaghtoffee @Charlie Sweet @Emlynsqueakyvoice at al.