Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Dymak]

A perfectly reasonable proposal that is very similar to what was first proposed by the EU, and a clear indication that our government is trying to avoid a no deal scenario. Those opposing it just want to stop Brexit, and would probably prefer the disruption of a no deal, just so they can whinge in self-pity and engage in as much melodrama as possible.​

 

[roydo]

A perfectly reasonable proposal that is very similar to what was first proposed by the EU, and a clear indication that our government is trying to avoid a no deal scenario. Those opposing it just want to stop Brexit, and would probably prefer the disruption of a no deal, just so they can whinge in self-pity and engage in as much melodrama as possible.

Not entirely sure if any of that is remotely a correct analysis of what Johnson has put forward. Unless you are taking the mick.

 

[orly]

Not sure Johnson has neither.

He has the votes now I think. Tory party + 21 he booted + DUP + a few Labour stragglers.

The deal? Be very surprised.

 

[roydo]

He has the votes now I think. Tory party + 21 he booted + DUP + a few Labour stragglers.

The deal? Be very surprised.

Commentators much closer to all this than me cite Johnson as having a minority of 43 as it stands.

As for the deal, not gonna lie, it seems ok to me. Pragmatic at least. Devil in the detail I guess.

 

[davek]

He has the votes now I think. Tory party + 21 he booted + DUP + a few Labour stragglers.

The deal? Be very surprised.

Not sure how you're counting in the Tory rebels, tbh. It's not the May deal. Besides, a few of them are with other parties now or just resigning (in which case they wont mind voting down the divvy's plans as a last show of defiance). Labour MPs wont go near that.

 

[Dymak]

Not entirely sure if any of that is remotely a correct analysis of what Johnson has put forward. Unless you are taking the mick.

I'm not taking the mick at all. I think it's a perfectly reasonable proposal that involves a massive climbdown from the DUP which involves regulatory alignment in Northern Ireland until the government of Northern Ireland decides otherwise.

Those opposing it simply want to stop Brexit in its entirety, and will be jumping up and down about the creation of a border in Ireland, as if one hasn't been in existence ever since the state of Northern Ireland was created.

 

[neil999]

Not sure how you're counting in the Tory rebels, tbh. It's not the May deal. Besides, a few of them are with other parties now or just resigning (in which case they wont mind voting down the divvy's plans as a last show of defiance). Labour MPs wont go near that.

Bar hoey of course...

 

[davek]

Bar hoey of course...

Of course. And I wonder how many of the ERG will support this.

I see Farage has condemned it.

 

[roydo]

I'm not taking the mick at all. I think it's a perfectly reasonable proposal that involves a massive climbdown from the DUP which involves regulatory alignment in Northern Ireland until the government of Northern Ireland decides otherwise.

Those opposing it simply want to stop Brexit in its entirety, and will be jumping up and down about the creation of a border in Ireland, as if one hasn't been in existence ever since the state of Northern Ireland was created.

very similar to what was first proposed by the EU

Not sure they have ever proposed anything.

clear indication that our government is trying to avoid a no deal scenario.

Thats exactly what they are going for. Wake up.

probably prefer the disruption of a no deal, just so they can whinge

Seriously? Just want this done, without a No Deal calamity.

 

[davmaher]

Commentators much closer to all this than me cite Johnson as having a minority of 43 as it stands.

As for the deal, not gonna lie, it seems ok to me. Pragmatic at least. Devil in the detail I guess.

I can't see the ERG agreeing to it. Every time there has been some sort of offer or progress in sight they go through the same process - start off looking as though they are in favour, then start to back-track. If there is any sign of the EU going for this they will immediately find something else they are not happy with. Steve Baker has just said there are serious concerns over defence and security provisions - whatever that means - so looks to me that they are getting their ducks lined up again. They all want No Deal and nothing else will be acceptable. Everything else is smoke and mirrors.

 

[davek]

I can't see the ERG agreeing to it. Every time there has been some sort of offer or progress in sight they go through the same process - start off looking as though they are in favour, then start to back-track. If there is any sign of the EU going for this they will immediately find something else they are not happy with. Steve Baker has just said there are serious concerns over defence and security provisions - whatever that means - so looks to me that they are getting their ducks lined up again. They all want No Deal and nothing else will be acceptable. Everything else is smoke and mirrors.

Cant see that either. It's all about the blame game now.

All sides know this is beyond a deal and it's all presentation now.

A counter proposal from the EU to get movement on the backstop proposals followed by a rebuff and we're nearly done.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

The DUP agreeing to it, despite it going against their previous ‘red lines’ smacks of ‘be seen to be backing it, so you’re on the right side when the EU boot it as we know they will’.

 

[Dymak]

Seriously? Just want this done, without a No Deal calamity.

It is my understanding that the first 'Back Stop' related to regulatory alignment in Northern Ireland only. It was agreed at Chequers? It then changed when the DUP threw their toys out of the pram. The DUP are now agreeing to regulatory alignment until the Northern Irish government says otherwise. It's very similar to the first back stop agreed to by the EU, other than the government of Northern Ireland get the power to keep it or end it, rather than the EU.

To say this proposal is a tactic to bring about no deal is ridiculous. The EU could easily thwart such a tactic just through agreeing to it, the UK government can thwart such a tactic through not voting for a no deal. If Johnson can somehow bypass parliament into a no deal, which I really don't think he can, then there would be no need to make this reasonable proposal.

I maintain that those opposing this perfectly reasonable proposal either just want to stop Brexit or have another agenda regarding power within the UK parliament.

 

[roydo]

have another agenda regarding power within the UK parliament.

Wouldnt disagree there, to a point.

But if you dont believe that Johnson has zero ambition for anything other than to deliver a No Deal to his backers, well one of us is wrong. I hope to god its me.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

It is my understanding that the first 'Back Stop' related to regulatory alignment in Northern Ireland only. It was agreed at Chequers? It then changed when the DUP threw their toys out of the pram. The DUP are now agreeing to regulatory alignment until the Northern Irish government says otherwise. It's very similar to the first back stop agreed to by the EU, other than the government of Northern Ireland get the power to keep it or end it, rather than the EU.

To say this proposal is a tactic to bring about no deal is ridiculous. The EU could easily thwart such a tactic just through agreeing to it, the UK government can thwart such a tactic through not voting for a no deal. If Johnson can somehow bypass parliament into a no deal, which I really don't think he can, then there would be no need to make this reasonable proposal.

I maintain that those opposing this perfectly reasonable proposal either just want to stop Brexit or have another agenda regarding power within the UK parliament.

What happens if the DUP lead a vote to end the agreement after the first 4 years, where does that leave the Republic and the GFA? As in that scenario it’d mean a return to a hard border.

For that reason alone it’s a dead duck imo.