Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Depends on whether they do a motion of no confidence first and it passes.

Bercow. What do you reckon he'll do? Go for an extension to prevent no deal. Or go all out to revoke article 50 or perhaps a second referendum. Timescales are not going to be great with the summer break and party conferences so I reckon he'll only get one shot. Extension is guaranteed to be passed. Not so the other 2 so we could still end up with no deal brexit come 31 October.

I'm not entirely sure that a motion of no confidence would need to be passed first. If the new Tory leader decides to dig their heels in and go for the legal default "leave with a no-deal" on Oct 31 then Bercow has said that Parliament must be allowed to debate and vote on this position.

So first-up, I would expect him to initiate a vote on a no-deal brexit. If the result of that vote, is parliament rejecting a no-deal and the Tory Leader still decides to push on for a no-deal then the motion of no confidence would probably be raised. But I think that motion would need to come from the main opposition (labour party) and not the speaker?

Then if that motion is passed, we are into a GE situation. Then and only then would we need to approach the EU for an extension of the Oct 31 deadline.

TBH I haven't got a clue how this will turn out - anything could happen

 

[Barnfred 55]

Your first para sounds a bit ludicrous to be honest mate. How is purely Leave vs Remain the only democratic option? What about the Leave voters who would prefer remain to no deal, who voted Leave on the back of listening to tits like Dan Hannan saying no one is talking about leaving the single market? If they got dragged out of the EU with no deal how can that be democratic. Why is it only remain vioters who say there are different versions of brexit. There simply are different versions, that's a fact regardless of what you voted.

So you believe it's democratic that somebody who wants to leave the EU on a deal should be faced with a question, remain or leave on no deal. Or somebody who wants to leave with no deal should be faced with a question remain or leave on a deal that they don't want. You believe it's acceptable for somebody who wants to leave the EU, be forced to chose something they don't want or not vote at all. Yeah. That's so democratic isn't it..

If we reverse that, how would you feel if you were faced with an option that didn't include your preference, such as leave on this deal or leave with no deal. Because that's exactly the same as the options leave voters would be looking at if you got your way.

People who have changed their mind and want to remain can vote for remain. Fair enough. People who still want to leave should not be forced into having to pick remain as a second preference. You would not accept it so you have absolutely no right to expect us to.

And the term "Ludicrous" is in the eye of the beholder here.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

So you believe it's democratic that somebody who wants to leave the EU on a deal should be faced with a question, remain or leave on no deal. Or somebody who wants to leave with no deal should be faced with a question remain or leave on a deal that they don't want. You believe it's acceptable for somebody who wants to leave the EU, be forced to chose something they don't want or not vote at all. Yeah. That's so democratic isn't it..

If we reverse that, how would you feel if you were faced with an option that didn't include your preference, such as leave on this deal or leave with no deal. Because that's exactly the same as the options leave voters would be looking at if you got your way.

People who have changed their mind and want to remain can vote for remain. Fair enough. People who still want to leave should not be forced into having to pick remain as a second preference. You would not accept it so you have absolutely no right to expect us to.

And the term "Ludicrous" is in the eye of the beholder here.

imo a no-deal scenario is never going to happen, parliament will not allow it to go through - if the incoming tory leader pushes for it then he will face a vote of no confidence and he will lose that forcing a GE.

Then it only takes Jezza and his gang to promise a 2nd ref as part of their manifesto and hey-ho, labour get in albeit in some form of coalition government. Then its 2nd ref time

option1 A leave deal written-up by labour
option 2 Revoke article 50 and cancel brexit

If option1 is then selected by the Public - they take that deal back to the EU. This way the public will know exactly what leaving the EU means.

 

[Barnfred 55]

imo a no-deal scenario is never going to happen, parliament will not allow it to go through - if the incoming tory leader pushes for it then he will face a vote of no confidence and he will lose that forcing a GE.

Then it only takes Jezza and his gang to promise a 2nd ref as part of their manifesto and hey-ho, labour get in albeit in some form of coalition government. Then its 2nd ref time

option1 A leave deal written-up by labour
option 2 Revoke article 50 and cancel brexit

If option1 is then selected by the Public - they take that deal back to the EU. This way the public will know exactly what leaving the EU means.

That may well happen. It's certainly one of a number of possible scenarios of how this may play out.

I would still argue that the second referendum is undemocratic in that it would alienate probably more than 40% of the voting population who would either spoil their voting paper or not bother turning up to vote at all. Meaning we revoke article 50, which was the plan all along.

Best of luck dealing with the aftermath.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

That may well happen. It's certainly one of a number of possible scenarios of how this may play out.

I would still argue that the second referendum is undemocratic in that it would alienate probably more than 40% of the voting population who would either spoil their voting paper or not bother turning up to vote at all. Meaning we revoke article 50, which was the plan all along.

Best of luck dealing with the aftermath.

I'm sure the police would relish a spot of overtime and the opportunity for some close combat

 

[dead_soft]

Why ? We do not wish to be part of the EU, nor do we wish to be part of the USA but we will still trade and have excellent relations with them......

Because we are part of the EU at the moment, and leaving with no deal is reckless and risks people's livelihood and therefore lives. This 'but we don't wanna be part of it' toys out of the pram childishness is unhelpful.

 

[Barnfred 55]

I'm not entirely sure that a motion of no confidence would need to be passed first. If the new Tory leader decides to dig their heels in and go for the legal default "leave with a no-deal" on Oct 31 then Bercow has said that Parliament must be allowed to debate and vote on this position.

So first-up, I would expect him to initiate a vote on a no-deal brexit. If the result of that vote, is parliament rejecting a no-deal and the Tory Leader still decides to push on for a no-deal then the motion of no confidence would probably be raised. But I think that motion would need to come from the main opposition (labour party) and not the speaker?

Then if that motion is passed, we are into a GE situation. Then and only then would we need to approach the EU for an extension of the Oct 31 deadline.

TBH I haven't got a clue how this will turn out - anything could happen

Not sure how it works but reading up on it a few days ago, if the motion in no confidence is passed, they have 14 days to set up a new govt (presumably another new leader) that can pass another vote of confidence, otherwise parliament is dissolved. That is why I suggested that they may do this first so they can organise a GE before the Oct 31 deadline. Think any MP can do this but not sure Bercow in his position as speaker counts as being an ordinary MP. By all accounts he seems to make things up as he goes along anyway, but I'm sure he has enough mates in Parliament to do this or him if need be.

Interesting that you think the vote he'll bring will be on no brexit. I'd have thought he'd just by pass this and go straight onto the next stage.

There might also be a question mark over who has the power to request an extension in article 50 if they do a late motion of no confidence and parliament has been resolved. Too much of a grey area for me to take a chance. Also you have to remember that the EU will also be in disarray following the elections and choosing on new officials, who don't actually take office until Nov 1st.

 

[Barnfred 55]

I'm sure the police would relish a spot of overtime and the opportunity for some close combat

It'll be like Monty Python's Hells Grannies
lol

Seriously though, the country will be toxic mate. It will be more divided than ever and in turmoil.

Time will tell

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Not sure how it works but reading up on it a few days ago, if the motion in no confidence is passed, they have 14 days to set up a new govt (presumably another new leader) that can pass another vote of confidence, otherwise parliament is dissolved. That is why I suggested that they may do this first so they can organise a GE before the Oct 31 deadline. Think any MP can do this but not sure Bercow in his position as speaker counts as being an ordinary MP. By all accounts he seems to make things up as he goes along anyway, but I'm sure he has enough mates in Parliament to do this or him if need be.

Interesting that you think the vote he'll bring will be on no brexit. I'd have thought he'd just by pass this and go straight onto the next stage.

There might also be a question mark over who has the power to request an extension in article 50 if they do a late motion of no confidence and parliament has been resolved. Too much of a grey area for me to take a chance. Also you have to remember that the EU will also be in disarray following the elections and choosing on new officials, who don't actually take office until Nov 1st.

Proper cake and arse party

 

[Billy Dean]

Would be interested to hear what GOT’s no deal zealots would answer to this

 

[Jebus_lives]

It'll be like Monty Python's Hells Grannies
lol

Seriously though, the country will be toxic mate. It will be more divided than ever and in turmoil.

Time will tell

I do find it odd that those sections of the press opining that statutory bodies preparing for a no deal is Project Fear unnecessary knee jerking, while giving caution/threat to a lack of preparedness in dealing with civil disruption angry leave voters.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Brexit: UK car production plunges amid 'untold damage' of EU leave date chaos

April manufacturing fell 44.5% as factories shut down for an EU exit that never came

www.theguardian.com

I mentioned this to @peteblue a while back as to a clear cost of the bungling of Brexit. I'm sure being the experienced manufacturing leader he is, he can appreciate the fine margins most lean operations run along, and balls ups like this are not particularly helpful. As an indication though, every few minutes of downtime at the the Toyota TMMK plant costs about $10,000, so whilst the UK facilities aren't at that scale, it does give an indication of the numbers we're talking about.

 

[peteblue]

Brexit: UK car production plunges amid 'untold damage' of EU leave date chaos

April manufacturing fell 44.5% as factories shut down for an EU exit that never came

www.theguardian.com

I mentioned this to @peteblue a while back as to a clear cost of the bungling of Brexit. I'm sure being the experienced manufacturing leader he is, he can appreciate the fine margins most lean operations run along, and balls ups like this are not particularly helpful. As an indication though, every few minutes of downtime at the the Toyota TMMK plant costs about $10,000, so whilst the UK facilities aren't at that scale, it does give an indication of the numbers we're talking about.

If we’d left, the uncertainty would now be over. Businesses made preparations, as I said they would, the politicians then let them down and they will now have to do it all over again. The Remainer element within parliament are causing this, no one else....

 

[Bruce Wayne]

If we’d left, the uncertainty would now be over. Businesses made preparations, as I said they would, the politicians then let them down and they will now have to do it all over again. The Remainer element within parliament are causing this, no one else....

As I said to Barnfred yesterday, the withdrawal agreement was rejected by many more people than just the 'remainer element'. Indeed, had the Tories and DUP voted en masse then you would have had your Brexit already, but they didn't.

Lest we forget, the car industry scheduled their maintenance around the initial leave date precisely because they had no idea what leaving would do to their supply chains and this was an attempt to hedge the risk. So even ignoring the mess caused by delaying Brexit, their inherent uncertainty still remains, but they won't be able to schedule maintenance again in October to hedge that risk.

 

[Charlie Sweet]

If we’d left, the uncertainty would now be over. Businesses made preparations, as I said they would, the politicians then let them down and they will now have to do it all over again. The Remainer element within parliament are causing this, no one else....

That's really not true is it? The stalemate in parliament is caused solely by the false promise of Leavers that there is a "Good Brexit" to be had. There isn't. May's Withdrawal Agreement is the best it can ever be. Brexiteers don't want to face facts so cry foul. We're going to end up running round in circles for many's a time yet.