Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Zezti]

 

[Barnfred 55]

I really have. But every time I ask the simple question "tell me why we'll be better off outside the EU", all I get in response is a variation on "taking back control."

So I'll try it with you - why, using provable, concrete facts, will we better off outside the EU? Both economically and politically? Given that every forecast says that we'll take a massive economic hit by leaving and we'll certainly have reduced political clout on the world stage due to not being a leading voice in Europe.

If your response is "I just reckon we will be", which I'm fairly sure it will be, then that's what I 'understood' about the Leave view in the first place. By all means surprise me - I'm extremely interested in the flip side on this and any other issue.

OK. Before I start I want to just point out that I am not a supporter of a no deal Brexit. I think that would be sufficiently economically and logistically harmful to counter any benefits we may get from Brexit. When I voted to leave it was on the basis that we were able to negotiate a decent trade deal in which case the economical and political downside would be nowhere near as bad as no deal. Also, I've read somewhere that something silly like as few as about 20% of these financial forecasts, even from experts, turn out to be accurate. I also read somewhere that weather forecasts are more commonly accurate. We also have the issue that the UK has never really truly engaged or embraced this whole European thing. We didn't join the Euro, frequently attempt to vote down change and are always looking to be excluded from this rule or that law. We really are a pain in the arse to them, and there is a growing belief in Europe that we can have a better working and closer relationship if we were actually out of the EU. Basically, I don't believe that under the right conditions, life out of the EU would automatically be worse than staying in.

Having said that, the issue here is you, not the people who voted to leave. And I'm not saying you as a person mate, I'm speaking collectively of the majority of remain supporters I have come across. You see Brexit as black and white, right or wrong, logic, a set of figures. But a lot of what drives people is emotions, That may be fear, pride, envy, love, even hate. That's why Brexit divides so many communities, political parties, workplaces and even families.

You seem to need to question leave supporters as to why they voted the way they did, and then attempt to prove them wrong using facts and figures. Well if you were brought up in a sales environment you would understand that emotions drive your decision making process, and that you don't always make the decisions that make most logic. It's just the way it is. You ask somebody why they voted to leave and, apart from the out and out racists like Robinson, you'll probably get a different answer depending on what their emotional driver is.

So when I say you don't try to understand us, I suppose what I'm really saying is that you don't appear to respect the fact that we have views that differ to yours and that we have them for a reason, our own reason. That will differ to yours, but it doesn't make them wrong. Just different. But the one thing I have learnt in here is that you don't respect those views or understand what drives them. They just differ to your views so must be wrong. But quoting this forecast or that survey will never change a persons emotions.

I have never questioned why anybody voted to remain. You will have your reasons which will be important to you, and I fully respect that. What I don't understand is why you can't have the same attitude towards us.

I don't know how old you are Tubey or whether you were born locally. But hundreds of thousands of Everton fans were born and brought up at a time when Liverpool were the far superior local football team. Logic would say you would support them, but they didn't. And they'll all have their own reason why choosing Everton. You may consider that a weird analogy, but it's the principle of emotions driving our decision making I'm trying to emphasise.

 

[Tubey]

OK. Before I start I want to just point out that I am not a supporter of a no deal Brexit. I think that would be sufficiently economically and logistically harmful to counter any benefits we may get from Brexit. When I voted to leave it was on the basis that we were able to negotiate a decent trade deal in which case the economical and political downside would be nowhere near as bad as no deal. Also, I've read somewhere that something silly like as few as about 20% of these financial forecasts, even from experts, turn out to be accurate. I also read somewhere that weather forecasts are more commonly accurate. We also have the issue that the UK has never really truly engaged or embraced this whole European thing. We didn't join the Euro, frequently attempt to vote down change and are always looking to be excluded from this rule or that law. We really are a pain in the arse to them, and there is a growing belief in Europe that we can have a better working and closer relationship if we were actually out of the EU. Basically, I don't believe that under the right conditions, life out of the EU would automatically be worse than staying in.

Having said that, the issue here is you, not the people who voted to leave. And I'm not saying you as a person mate, I'm speaking collectively of the majority of remain supporters I have come across. You see Brexit as black and white, right or wrong, logic, a set of figures. But a lot of what drives people is emotions, That may be fear, pride, envy, love, even hate. That's why Brexit divides so many communities, political parties, workplaces and even families.

You seem to need to question leave supporters as to why they voted the way they did, and then attempt to prove them wrong using facts and figures. Well if you were brought up in a sales environment you would understand that emotions drive your decision making process, and that you don't always make the decisions that make most logic. It's just the way it is. You ask somebody why they voted to leave and, apart from the out and out racists like Robinson, you'll probably get a different answer depending on what their emotional driver is.

So when I say you don't try to understand us, I suppose what I'm really saying is that you don't appear to respect the fact that we have views that differ to yours and that we have them for a reason, our own reason. That will differ to yours, but it doesn't make them wrong. Just different. But the one thing I have learnt in here is that you don't respect those views or understand what drives them. They just differ to your views so must be wrong. But quoting this forecast or that survey will never change a persons emotions.

I have never questioned why anybody voted to remain. You will have your reasons which will be important to you, and I fully respect that. What I don't understand is why you can't have the same attitude towards us.

I don't know how old you are Tubey or whether you were born locally. But hundreds of thousands of Everton fans were born and brought up at a time when Liverpool were the far superior local football team. Logic would say you would support them, but they didn't. And they'll all have their own reason why choosing Everton. You may consider that a weird analogy, but it's the principle of emotions driving our decision making I'm trying to emphasise.

So you are saying exactly what I knew you would say - you have no logic behind your decision to leave, but you expect people to 'respect' that you made a decision that wasn't based on logic.

The problem with that is that it isn't the same as barebacking a stranger instead of using a condom - that's personal risk, you take the consequences on alone. Logically, you should wear a condom, but you choose not to. Fine. You do you. But with Brexit, it isn't a personal risk - we're talking about the 'health' of a nation and generations that follow us.

I run my own business, educated risk is a fact of life when doing so, but I never just throw logic out the window and go on gut instinct alone as that's a surefire way to crash and burn.

The problem isn't me not 'understanding' you - the problem is you not understanding consequence beyond your own life. Brexit won't affect me much mate, I'll be OK regardless - but there's countless others who it will affect. It'd be easy for me to have a 'not arsed' attitude to the whole thing, but there's such a thing as a social conscience. Your personal ego and 'emotional driver' should take a back seat.

If you can't give me one single reason why we'd be economically and politically better off leaving the EU, then isn't there a part of you that thinks "you know, maybe just because I personally dislike <insert thing here>, perhaps there's a bigger picture here?"

 

[Bruce Wayne]

So when I say you don't try to understand us, I suppose what I'm really saying is that you don't appear to respect the fact that we have views that differ to yours and that we have them for a reason, our own reason. That will differ to yours, but it doesn't make them wrong. Just different. But the one thing I have learnt in here is that you don't respect those views or understand what drives them. They just differ to your views so must be wrong. But quoting this forecast or that survey will never change a persons emotions.

Emotion drive much of the anti-vax movement, and whilst few are advocating that vaccinations should be mandatory, even fewer are advocating that government policy should be driven by emotion as opposed to science. It's been mentioned on here numerous times, but the only people that seem to be portraying forecasts as infallible are leave voters, who create a strawman of the 'they were wrong before...' kind. The issue isn't with whether forecasts are perfect or not, because they're not. The issue is whether forecasts are better than not bothering at all, which is almost certainly the case, yet we're in a world where policy is being driven by the 'not bothering at all' mindset, which I (and I suspect many others) find utterly bewildering.

There's a big push in governments around the world to deliver evidence-based policy making, and the likes of the Commons Library attempt to provide impartial evidence to help support that policy making, and yet we're in a scenario at the moment where not only is the best evidence we have pointing in the opposite direction to where we're going, but officials who know it's the wrong direction are engaged in cognitive dissonance to deliver something or be seen as anti-democratic.

As it is, the vast majority of forecasts these days utilize scenarios to try and inject some of the inherent uncertainty that exists in any complex system or decision. You could perhaps feel more confident if there were at least some of these scenarios pointing to a possible upside to Brexit, but none exist, so you've got a situation whereby the best methods currently available to plan for the future are having to be ignored on the basis of emotions.

 

[Barnfred 55]

So you are saying exactly what I knew you would say - you have no logic behind your decision to leave, but you expect people to 'respect' that you made a decision that wasn't based on logic.

The problem with that is that it isn't the same as barebacking a stranger instead of using a condom - that's personal risk, you take the consequences on alone. Logically, you should wear a condom, but you choose not to. Fine. You do you. But with Brexit, it isn't a personal risk - we're talking about the 'health' of a nation and generations that follow us.

I run my own business, educated risk is a fact of life when doing so, but I never just throw logic out the window and go on gut instinct alone as that's a surefire way to crash and burn.

The problem isn't me not 'understanding' you - the problem is you not understanding consequence beyond your own life. Brexit won't affect me much mate, I'll be OK regardless - but there's countless others who it will affect. It'd be easy for me to have a 'not arsed' attitude to the whole thing, but there's such a thing as a social conscience. Your personal ego and 'emotional driver' should take a back seat.

If you can't give me one single reason why we'd be economically and politically better off leaving the EU, then isn't there a part of you that thinks "you know, maybe just because I personally dislike <insert thing here>, perhaps there's a bigger picture here?"

And you are saying exactly what I expected you to say too.

You asked me to help you understand. I did that and you've just done exactly what I originally accused remain supporters of. If you want to try and change the view of people who voted to leave you have to understand what has driven them, and then tackle it that way. Quoting facts and figures won't change anything.

You're also now claiming the moral high ground, which I find is common place with most remain supporters in here and also in general. As I said to start off with, and have said all along, I am against a no deal Brexit. Both the EU and UK have promised they will work towards a future free trade deal which will not have anywhere near the detrimental effect on the UK that a no deal would have. Plus, in many respects, the UK and EU are non compatible, and there is lots of evidence in our historic relationship to back this up. So there is a growing argument, both within the EU and UK, that a close relationship with the UK outside of the EU would suit both parties. I'm sure our friend @Armel could given a European perspective on this. So no, I don't think I am being selfish

You say you run your own business. Do you mind if I ask whether you think that business would be stronger if Britain were in the EU or out of the EU.?

 

[Tubey]

And you are saying exactly what I expected you to say too.

You asked me to help you understand. I did that and you've just done exactly what I originally accused remain supporters of. If you want to try and change the view of people who voted to leave you have to understand what has driven them, and then tackle it that way. Quoting facts and figures won't change anything.

You're also now claiming the moral high ground, which I find is common place with most remain supporters in here and also in general. As I said to start off with, and have said all along, I am against a no deal Brexit. Both the EU and UK have promised they will work towards a future free trade deal which will not have anywhere near the detrimental effect on the UK that a no deal would have. Plus, in many respects, the UK and EU are non compatible, and there is lots of evidence in our historic relationship to back this up. So there is a growing argument, both within the EU and UK, that a close relationship with the UK outside of the EU would suit both parties. I'm sure our friend @Armel could given a European perspective on this. So no, I don't think I am being selfish

You say you run your own business. Do you mind if I ask whether you think that business would be stronger if Britain were in the EU or out of the EU.?

What do you want then? If you have no interest in facts, what is going to change you view? Lies? Farage-esque nonsense just spouted to add to your confirmation bias? What are we supposed to do - "oh, we understand you badly want blue passports, so if we stay in I can promise you we'll get a treaty change with the EU to allow us to have blue passports. Because it's VERY important."

No, if there's nothing serious that's an issue with membership of the EU, then there's nothing to tackle. The problem is yours; the onus isn't on me to validate a ridiculous position. You criticise people for not 'understanding', then show absolutely zero desire to have any understanding of your own.

I'm perfectly ready to understand counter-arguments based on evidence, but to basically type "I have no interest in facts..." Like seriously? You've seriously typed that and don't think you're being soft?

As for my business, it depends on consumer spending and liquidity for leisure. If we hit a bad downturn, it could impact my business somewhat, but I'm generally insulated from it. There's no benefit from us leaving for me, except if I wanted to do what Farage and Rees-Mogg want to do and join the race to the bottom in terms of standards and profit from it in another industry.

 

[Ruairi77]

If you want to try and change the view of people who voted to leave you have to understand what has driven them, and then tackle it that way. Quoting facts and figures won't change anything.

That's refreshingly honest.
In my opinion, most leave voters I know were driven by nationalism and quoting all the facts and figures in the world won't change that.

 

[Barnfred 55]

That's refreshingly honest.
In my opinion, most leave voters I know were driven by nationalism and quoting all the facts and figures in the world won't change that.

If by nationalism, you mean pride in being British, I would say that accounts for quite a lot of peoples feelings mate. I didn't intentionally try and hide that.

What I'm saying is that people tend to make decisions based more on emotion than fact. I used to be in a sales role many years ago and a lot of research was done into what makes somebody "buy", and generally it came in at about 70/30 emotion/fact. So the sort of emotions that would come into play being Nationalist would be pride, fear and even hate in the more extreme cases.

I get the impression from your posts that there is an Irish connection to your circumstance. Is that right?

 

[Ruairi77]

If by nationalism, you mean pride in being British, I would say that accounts for quite a lot of peoples feelings mate. I didn't intentionally try and hide that.

What I'm saying is that people tend to make decisions based more on emotion than fact. I used to be in a sales role many years ago and a lot of research was done into what makes somebody "buy", and generally it came in at about 70/30 emotion/fact. So the sort of emotions that would come into play being Nationalist would be pride, fear and even hate in the more extreme cases.

I get the impression from your posts that there is an Irish connection to your circumstance. Is that right?

yup, I'm Irish, living in the States.
For what it's worth, I'm not criticizing people for being nationalist or patriotic. I can see how people feel British and not European. I just think a lot of leave voters tend to skirt around the issue, start dealing in economics or politics, when at the end of the day, they're British and want no part of the EU because they don't see a world in which you can be both.
I would far prefer if leave voters just came out and said 'I've considered all the aspects of EU membership and I feel that being a member of the EU dilutes my national identity so much that it's not worth it'. To me that kinda sums up a lot of leave voters positions.
As you say, it's a feeling and all the data and facts won't change that, when it comes to nationalism or patriotism (two sides of the same sword in my book) the more data and facts you throw at someone, the more entrenched they're likely to become.
I don't think nationalism or patriotism is as important to the younger generation, hence their eagerness to take advantage of the benefits of EU membership.

 

[Barnfred 55]

What do you want then? If you have no interest in facts, what is going to change you view? Lies? Farage-esque nonsense just spouted to add to your confirmation bias? What are we supposed to do - "oh, we understand you badly want blue passports, so if we stay in I can promise you we'll get a treaty change with the EU to allow us to have blue passports. Because it's VERY important."

No, if there's nothing serious that's an issue with membership of the EU, then there's nothing to tackle. The problem is yours; the onus isn't on me to validate a ridiculous position. You criticise people for not 'understanding', then show absolutely zero desire to have any understanding of your own.

I'm perfectly ready to understand counter-arguments based on evidence, but to basically type "I have no interest in facts..." Like seriously? You've seriously typed that and don't think you're being soft?

As for my business, it depends on consumer spending and liquidity for leisure. If we hit a bad downturn, it could impact my business somewhat, but I'm generally insulated from it. There's no benefit from us leaving for me, except if I wanted to do what Farage and Rees-Mogg want to do and join the race to the bottom in terms of standards and profit from it in another industry.

Well obviously the fact I don't want a no deal Brexit means that I, personally, do take an interest in facts and figures. The point I was making, and I'm pretty certain you are intelligent enough to know this, is that there is no point just quoting random facts and figures as a solution, if you don't know the actual cause of the problem. I'll guarantee you the cause will not be blue passports though.

And nowhere have I said that there is nothing serious as an issue being a member of the EU. Of course there will be for many of the leave voters.

 

[Ruairi77]

yup, I'm Irish, living in the States.
For what it's worth, I'm not criticizing people for being nationalist or patriotic. I can see how people feel British and not European. I just think a lot of leave voters tend to skirt around the issue, start dealing in economics or politics, when at the end of the day, they're British and want no part of the EU because they don't see a world in which you can be both.
I would far prefer if leave voters just came out and said 'I've considered all the aspects of EU membership and I feel that being a member of the EU dilutes my national identity so much that it's not worth it'. To me that kinda sums up a lot of leave voters positions.
As you say, it's a feeling and all the data and facts won't change that, when it comes to nationalism or patriotism (two sides of the same sword in my book) the more data and facts you throw at someone, the more entrenched they're likely to become.
I don't think nationalism or patriotism is as important to the younger generation, hence their eagerness to take advantage of the benefits of EU membership.

The one point I would argue is that, while I can see why the average leave voter voted that way, I find it sad that most didn't consider what the younger generation wanted, the generation that have to live with the consequence of their decisions.
National identity is a powerful thing, up there with organized religion in my book.
But that's a whole different can of worms.

 

[Barnfred 55]

yup, I'm Irish, living in the States.
For what it's worth, I'm not criticizing people for being nationalist or patriotic. I can see how people feel British and not European. I just think a lot of leave voters tend to skirt around the issue, start dealing in economics or politics, when at the end of the day, they're British and want no part of the EU because they don't see a world in which you can be both.
I would far prefer if leave voters just came out and said 'I've considered all the aspects of EU membership and I feel that being a member of the EU dilutes my national identity so much that it's not worth it'. To me that kinda sums up a lot of leave voters positions.
As you say, it's a feeling and all the data and facts won't change that, when it comes to nationalism or patriotism (two sides of the same sword in my book) the more data and facts you throw at someone, the more entrenched they're likely to become.
I don't think nationalism or patriotism is as important to the younger generation, hence their eagerness to take advantage of the benefits of EU membership.

That's all fair comment mate. The thing you need to understand here is that it's absolutely fine to be patriotic if you are Irish, Scottish or Welsh, but if you relate to being British or even Englishness, it comes with a certain tinge, almost a stain. It's weird really, you can be both proud to be British but at the same time frightened or ashamed to admit it because of the way it will be perceived by many. It's the way things are here at the moment.

 

[Barnfred 55]

The one point I would argue is that, while I can see why the average leave voter voted that way, I find it sad that most didn't consider what the younger generation wanted, the generation that have to live with the consequence of their decisions.
National identity is a powerful thing, up there with organized religion in my book.
But that's a whole different can of worms.

I don't personally have any children. But I would say that the vast majority of the older people who voted to leave will have children, grand children and great grandchildren. Over the years these people will have made sacrifices, both financial and personal, to ensure they have the best up bringing possible. Do you really think they would knowingly put their futures at risk. Do you not think that they may have believed they were voting for a better future for them.

 

[roydo]

That's all fair comment mate. The thing you need to understand here is that it's absolutely fine to be patriotic if you are Irish, Scottish or Welsh, but if you relate to being British or even Englishness, it comes with a certain tinge, almost a stain. It's weird really, you can be both proud to be British but at the same time frightened or ashamed to admit it because of the way it will be perceived by many. It's the way things are here at the moment.

But what I cant my head round is why being in the EU somehow dilutes someones patriotism/pride/nationalism. Like, being in the UK doesnt make Welsh or Scots or Irish less patriotic, so why would being in the EU be any different?

 

[Ruairi77]

That's all fair comment mate. The thing you need to understand here is that it's absolutely fine to be patriotic if you are Irish, Scottish or Welsh, but if you relate to being British or even Englishness, it comes with a certain tinge, almost a stain. It's weird really, you can be both proud to be British but at the same time frightened or ashamed to admit it because of the way it will be perceived by many. It's the way things are here at the moment.

Yea, one of my best mates is from Watford, he's a big leave voter and we get in to it a bit. He's constantly making this point. He definitely doesnt feel like he can fully express his Englishness, and that's a shame. Unfortunately I think English identity is tied to it's colonial past and there fore is a tricky beast to tame.
Given your countries history, I'm not sure if moderate nationalism/patriotism is an option.
Recently, my buddy from Watford has gone all in with the likes of Tommy Robinson. It's actually sad to see.
I guess Brexit opened up a conversation on nationalism that England wasn't really ready to have.