Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Jebus_lives]

Ha. I answered my own post rather than yours.

Here is my post

I would advise using things like fullfacts, government archive, independent organisations.

Generally, if something only gives you one side of the debate, particularly if it's the one you want it to tell you, I'd seek out further reading.

 

[Barnfred 55]

As I mentioned, the Commons library is designed to be an impartial source of information for parliament to use when forming policy. They're usually exceptional in my experience of them and can be relied upon. As you've deduced, the divorce payment pays up until 2020, but the EU budget post 2020 is already being firmed up, hence why it's fairly easy to deduce how much could have been available for those towns had we stayed in, and how much the government have committed to them.

It's already been said before that the extra money doesn't even cover the cuts to local government grants, let alone match the funding those regions would have got from the EU (and it would have been very easy to commit to that in the same announcement, but they didn't). The government have expressed an interest in contributing to various EU agencies, which will likely be for Horizon 2020 (or it's successor) rather than regional funds. After all, there is an EU fund specifically designed to help countries and regions adapt to changes in population, but the UK have historically refused to access it, whilst not providing any funds of their own. It's a stretch to suggest that the Tories suddenly care about these things as there's so little actual evidence to say they do.

I've looked at the 21-27 EU structural funding plan and can only see a budget for the E27. I can't find anything to say that the UK would get E13b if we were still included. Can you post a link? Incidentally, the total structural funding plan over the 7 years is E373b, and assuming we would still be contributing 15% of the total budget that would amount to around E55b, of which we'd get E13b back according to that tweet you posted.

I wasn't suggesting the tories have grown a consciencelol. I was actually suggesting that they may use something like membership of the structural funding scheme as an incentive, or bung if you prefer, to help us negotiate a good trade deal. But I agree the prospect is unlikely, just as well given those figures above. A lot of people weren't over enamoured with European funding anyway as it came with a lot of conditions, not least strict competition rules, so a new scheme with kess conditions would be more appropriate.

Which leads me to my last point. You totally ignored my comment that the Govt has said it will bring in a new scheme to replace the EU scheme from 2021. The Stronger Towns Fund is completely independent of this and is not designed as a replacement for the EU funding. So do you agree that the tweet you posted was misleading in this regard?

 

[Jebus_lives]

Trying to find reliable impartial info on Brexit via the web is very difficult. Almost everything seems to carry a bias one way or the other. But I think I have gotten to the bottom of it.

The EU plans financial commitments in 7 year cycles. The current one finishes at the end of 2020. So the 7 year period that Bruce's tweet referred to must have been 2014-2020. If we leave with a deal any planned investment in this country will continue until then. Given that there is so little time left in the current financial cycle I'm quite honestly staggered why our rumoured divorce bill is as high as £39b. But that's another matter.

It's possible that the UK may request and pay to be part of the EU structural funding schemes as part of it's negotiations to get a good trade deal. If not, the Govt has committed to replacing the EU funding from 2021 with a new UK fund of which no details has yet been announced. But the £1.5b bung is completely separate, so comparisons made in Bruce's posted tweet are both misleading and inaccurate.

CPMR analysis: UK to lose €13bn regional funding post Brexit

New analysis from the Conference of Peripheral Maritime Regions (CPMR) estimates that the United Kingdom would be entitled to approximately 13 billion euros of regional development funding for the 2021-2027 period should it stay in the European Union. The CPMR has published

cpmr.org

That shows the working. Based on European Development Fund and European Social Fund allocations.

 

[Armel]

The bickering Brits starting to get to you mate?lol

Seriously though, I can understand why Europeans will be getting fed up with Brexit just as much as we are in the UK.

Have I understood your last sentence correctly. Do you really feel that the UK staying in the EU is now not sustainable from a EU perspective?. If so, is that a general feeling over there or just your personal view. Are you aware of any ill feelings towards Brits living and working on the continent?

As regards your opening comments, the UK has never been as committed to the EU as the majority of member states on the continent. For a long time there has been a general feeling amongst many Brits that we are getting short changed and there has been pressure on governments to get concessions. I've only ever looked at it from our perspective but yeah, I can see why continental Europeans would take exception to it. I suppose it comes down to how much the EU value our membership and maybe we're just not as important to you as we thought we were.

Well in all fairness a bit mate; it’s annoying for both Brits and non-Brits.

Sorry for the late reply. Was in London for a couple of days and on top of that, I’d forgotten my laptop. So many people, so many impressions. I somehow ended up at the West-Ham Newcastle game. It’s bizarre I’m totally knackered even though I only normally need a minimum of sleep. Friendly people though.

Yes I think it’s unstainable; mostly because of the situation in the U.K – was problematic before isn’t improving. Well I’d say it’s probably a minority position (although I think quite a few are thinking the same but are afraid to articulate the sentiment- and some polls indicate the same sentiment) but it’s gaining more traction the more this goes on. I see today quite a few have articulated the sentiment that a hard Brexit is preferable to the uncertainty. Or you can be more open about it like De Grauwe (currently a professor at the London school of economics- In Belgium professors are encouraged to retire when they reach a certain age, he wanted to continue working) and just say: “They have to leave quickly, and fend for themselves”. Adding that a hard Brexit might be the least damaging option (especially for the current toxic political climate in the U.K). In his defence, again, like some others he also said something similar before the referendum (when he was already working in the U.K. for 4 years): for the E.U as a whole brexit is probably the best. Simply because there is a lot of hostility in the U.K. towards the E.U : the media and a large part of the political establishment hate the European Union – this would not suddenly have disappeared after a successful referendum. On the contrary (and this I also want to avoid now), the Brits would have just doubled up on their usual strategies to undermine every form of integration/further cooperation. Some go further and say that the Brits, during their entire membership, tried to steer the rest of Europe with a colonial arrogance. Ironically also an argument for some remainers: we should stay so we can block things.

And you can find similar in newspapers (this one from a professor from the University of Nijmegen, Dutch newspaper).

E.g: ”Onder al het Britse gechicaneer rond de brexit denk ik steeds vaker: barst dan maar!: Er zijn momenten waarop ik bijna op een harde brexit hoop. De stupiditeit, onkunde, arrogantie en kleingeestigheid die de toon zetten in de Britse politiek lijken niet beter te verdienen.

Translation: “Amongst all the British pettifogging surrounding Brexit the more I think: go to hell! There are moments when I’m practically hoping for a hard Brexit. The stupidity, ignorance, arrogance and small-mindedness that sets the tone in British politics doesn’t deserve any better”.

No especially ill feelings towards Brits living and working on the continent that I’m aware off; the most you might find are people that get annoyed when they have been living here for a long time and still don’t speak the language- but I think that’s universal.

Most Brits I know though are young anti-Brexit and quite angry with it all tbf. I thought I mentioned it earlier in here. The most recent one I met, specifically moved here because he’s angry with Brexit, working for the local Jetair branch. Has a clause in his contract though that if Brexit has any negative effect on said company/his functioning that they can fire him without many difficulties. Quite brave of him.

I think most people make a distinction between the person and the nation/government (regardless of the nationality).

The problem is most people only ever looked at the financial side of the membership (not all I know); how much they pay in etc. The Brits were not getting short-changed. I pay in more than an average Brit (both countries net-contributors): 109 €/year for a Belgian, 90 €/year for a Brit. I don’t care, because of other advantages (and yes I realize I’ll probably will have to pay more because of Brexit – still don’t care). While we’re at it. Some of the more staunch remainers seriously annoy me when they spam social media with ideas like: “My personal contribution a year is x; in case of Brexit I’m willing to pay double when we leave the E.U. in order to retain my E.U. citizenship on annual basis (and accompanying freedom of movement etc…)”. If this isn’t prime-cherry-picking what is; the advantages for a small sum. Fully aware a continental European can’t opt in for something similar.

The problem is Ireland though, there needs to be a solution that works for them. I feel the current agreement is good for that (not entirely happy with it, but it’s a compromise so…).

Again though; being part of the E.U doesn’t change if somebody/a nation is your friend or not. I said it before I don’t really care a lot about nationality. It doesn’t mean you’ll get an easy deal though like some people thought. That’s a pipe-dream, said so from the start. It will have a tangible effect on the lives of normal people and in my opinion not for the better, certainly not for the vulnerable segments.

 

[Jebus_lives]

Well in all fairness a bit mate; it’s annoying for both Brits and non-Brits.

Sorry for the late reply. Was in London for a couple of days and on top of that, I’d forgotten my laptop. So many people, so many impressions. I somehow ended up at the West-Ham Newcastle game. It’s bizarre I’m totally knackered even though I only normally need a minimum of sleep. Friendly people though.

Yes I think it’s unstainable; mostly because of the situation in the U.K – was problematic before isn’t improving. Well I’d say it’s probably a minority position (although I think quite a few are thinking the same but are afraid to articulate the sentiment- and some polls indicate the same sentiment) but it’s gaining more traction the more this goes on. I see today quite a few have articulated the sentiment that a hard Brexit is preferable to the uncertainty. Or you can be more open about it like De Grauwe (currently a professor at the London school of economics- In Belgium professors are encouraged to retire when they reach a certain age, he wanted to continue working) and just say: “They have to leave quickly, and fend for themselves”. Adding that a hard Brexit might be the least damaging option (especially for the current toxic political climate in the U.K). In his defence, again, like some others he also said something similar before the referendum (when he was already working in the U.K. for 4 years): for the E.U as a whole brexit is probably the best. Simply because there is a lot of hostility in the U.K. towards the E.U : the media and a large part of the political establishment hate the European Union – this would not suddenly have disappeared after a successful referendum. On the contrary (and this I also want to avoid now), the Brits would have just doubled up on their usual strategies to undermine every form of integration/further cooperation. Some go further and say that the Brits, during their entire membership, tried to steer the rest of Europe with a colonial arrogance. Ironically also an argument for some remainers: we should stay so we can block things.

And you can find similar in newspapers (this one from a professor from the University of Nijmegen, Dutch newspaper).

E.g: ”Onder al het Britse gechicaneer rond de brexit denk ik steeds vaker: barst dan maar!: Er zijn momenten waarop ik bijna op een harde brexit hoop. De stupiditeit, onkunde, arrogantie en kleingeestigheid die de toon zetten in de Britse politiek lijken niet beter te verdienen.

Translation: “Amongst all the British pettifogging surrounding Brexit the more I think: go to hell! There are moments when I’m practically hoping for a hard Brexit. The stupidity, ignorance, arrogance and small-mindedness that sets the tone in British politics doesn’t deserve any better”.

No especially ill feelings towards Brits living and working on the continent that I’m aware off; the most you might find are people that get annoyed when they have been living here for a long time and still don’t speak the language- but I think that’s universal.

Most Brits I know though are young anti-Brexit and quite angry with it all tbf. I thought I mentioned it earlier in here. The most recent one I met, specifically moved here because he’s angry with Brexit, working for the local Jetair branch. Has a clause in his contract though that if Brexit has any negative effect on said company/his functioning that they can fire him without many difficulties. Quite brave of him.

I think most people make a distinction between the person and the nation/government (regardless of the nationality).

The problem is most people only ever looked at the financial side of the membership (not all I know); how much they pay in etc. The Brits were not getting short-changed. I pay in more than an average Brit (both countries net-contributors): 109 €/year for a Belgian, 90 €/year for a Brit. I don’t care, because of other advantages (and yes I realize I’ll probably will have to pay more because of Brexit – still don’t care). While we’re at it. Some of the more staunch remainers seriously annoy me when they spam social media with ideas like: “My personal contribution a year is x; in case of Brexit I’m willing to pay double when we leave the E.U. in order to retain my E.U. citizenship on annual basis (and accompanying freedom of movement etc…)”. If this isn’t prime-cherry-picking what is; the advantages for a small sum. Fully aware a continental European can’t opt in for something similar.

The problem is Ireland though, there needs to be a solution that works for them. I feel the current agreement is good for that (not entirely happy with it, but it’s a compromise so…).

Again though; being part of the E.U doesn’t change if somebody/a nation is your friend or not. I said it before I don’t really care a lot about nationality. It doesn’t mean you’ll get an easy deal though like some people thought. That’s a pipe-dream, said so from the start. It will have a tangible effect on the lives of normal people and in my opinion not for the better, certainly not for the vulnerable segments.

What's the context of the De Gauwe comment. Is he talking as though it's in the UK's best interests (financially, socially, public cohesion) or from the perspective of the EU?

That clause will be an interesting one given the UK position on contract frustration set by the European Medicines Agency* but also, there is not a legal definition for 'Brexit' (in fact Brexit means Brexit is particularly meaningless when trying to understand it in regard to interference in the functioning of a contractual agreement - as it may be a number of factors that are the cause). You would have to address specific risks and draft those individually into the contract rather than a catch all 'Brexit Clause'. Granted, I know nothing about the contract, or the wording, it just seemed interesting in the wider context.

*Although UK law so not necessarily relevant in EU.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

May 'did not understand EU when she triggered Brexit'

Former UK ambassador Ivan Rogers says PM’s negotiating strategy was doomed to fail

www.theguardian.com

 

[Barnfred 55]

CPMR analysis: UK to lose €13bn regional funding post Brexit

New analysis from the Conference of Peripheral Maritime Regions (CPMR) estimates that the United Kingdom would be entitled to approximately 13 billion euros of regional development funding for the 2021-2027 period should it stay in the European Union. The CPMR has published

cpmr.org

That shows the working. Based on European Development Fund and European Social Fund allocations.

Cheers mate, that's brilliant. There's a lot of good (not to say very interesting) information in that. Let's hope that the Gvt use it as a basis to work their own new replacement fund on. You can't always trust Parliament to do the right thing; I've often found they do what's best for themselves (i.e. bring in the most votes), but in this case I think it would be political suicide not to do what they promised.

I never questioned the amount of E13b being accurate by the way. Purely based on the E10b we got last time it seemed a very reasonable figure. I only questioned the validity of the tweet originators sources (as I question most things I read these days).

 

[Barnfred 55]

Well in all fairness a bit mate; it’s annoying for both Brits and non-Brits.

Sorry for the late reply. Was in London for a couple of days and on top of that, I’d forgotten my laptop. So many people, so many impressions. I somehow ended up at the West-Ham Newcastle game. It’s bizarre I’m totally knackered even though I only normally need a minimum of sleep. Friendly people though.

Yes I think it’s unstainable; mostly because of the situation in the U.K – was problematic before isn’t improving. Well I’d say it’s probably a minority position (although I think quite a few are thinking the same but are afraid to articulate the sentiment- and some polls indicate the same sentiment) but it’s gaining more traction the more this goes on. I see today quite a few have articulated the sentiment that a hard Brexit is preferable to the uncertainty. Or you can be more open about it like De Grauwe (currently a professor at the London school of economics- In Belgium professors are encouraged to retire when they reach a certain age, he wanted to continue working) and just say: “They have to leave quickly, and fend for themselves”. Adding that a hard Brexit might be the least damaging option (especially for the current toxic political climate in the U.K). In his defence, again, like some others he also said something similar before the referendum (when he was already working in the U.K. for 4 years): for the E.U as a whole brexit is probably the best. Simply because there is a lot of hostility in the U.K. towards the E.U : the media and a large part of the political establishment hate the European Union – this would not suddenly have disappeared after a successful referendum. On the contrary (and this I also want to avoid now), the Brits would have just doubled up on their usual strategies to undermine every form of integration/further cooperation. Some go further and say that the Brits, during their entire membership, tried to steer the rest of Europe with a colonial arrogance. Ironically also an argument for some remainers: we should stay so we can block things.

And you can find similar in newspapers (this one from a professor from the University of Nijmegen, Dutch newspaper).

E.g: ”Onder al het Britse gechicaneer rond de brexit denk ik steeds vaker: barst dan maar!: Er zijn momenten waarop ik bijna op een harde brexit hoop. De stupiditeit, onkunde, arrogantie en kleingeestigheid die de toon zetten in de Britse politiek lijken niet beter te verdienen.

Translation: “Amongst all the British pettifogging surrounding Brexit the more I think: go to hell! There are moments when I’m practically hoping for a hard Brexit. The stupidity, ignorance, arrogance and small-mindedness that sets the tone in British politics doesn’t deserve any better”.

No especially ill feelings towards Brits living and working on the continent that I’m aware off; the most you might find are people that get annoyed when they have been living here for a long time and still don’t speak the language- but I think that’s universal.

Most Brits I know though are young anti-Brexit and quite angry with it all tbf. I thought I mentioned it earlier in here. The most recent one I met, specifically moved here because he’s angry with Brexit, working for the local Jetair branch. Has a clause in his contract though that if Brexit has any negative effect on said company/his functioning that they can fire him without many difficulties. Quite brave of him.

I think most people make a distinction between the person and the nation/government (regardless of the nationality).

The problem is most people only ever looked at the financial side of the membership (not all I know); how much they pay in etc. The Brits were not getting short-changed. I pay in more than an average Brit (both countries net-contributors): 109 €/year for a Belgian, 90 €/year for a Brit. I don’t care, because of other advantages (and yes I realize I’ll probably will have to pay more because of Brexit – still don’t care). While we’re at it. Some of the more staunch remainers seriously annoy me when they spam social media with ideas like: “My personal contribution a year is x; in case of Brexit I’m willing to pay double when we leave the E.U. in order to retain my E.U. citizenship on annual basis (and accompanying freedom of movement etc…)”. If this isn’t prime-cherry-picking what is; the advantages for a small sum. Fully aware a continental European can’t opt in for something similar.

The problem is Ireland though, there needs to be a solution that works for them. I feel the current agreement is good for that (not entirely happy with it, but it’s a compromise so…).

Again though; being part of the E.U doesn’t change if somebody/a nation is your friend or not. I said it before I don’t really care a lot about nationality. It doesn’t mean you’ll get an easy deal though like some people thought. That’s a pipe-dream, said so from the start. It will have a tangible effect on the lives of normal people and in my opinion not for the better, certainly not for the vulnerable segments.

That's an absolutely brilliant post mate. It really is good to get a different perspective on this from the European side, even if some of the reading isn't particularly convivial. It seems to me that you have a better grasp on our situation than we do ourselves

I'm out today but will give you a proper reply later.

 

[Jebus_lives]

Cheers mate, that's brilliant. There's a lot of good (not to say very interesting) information in that. Let's hope that the Gvt use it as a basis to work their own new replacement fund on. You can't always trust Parliament to do the right thing; I've often found they do what's best for themselves (i.e. bring in the most votes), but in this case I think it would be political suicide not to do what they promised.

I never questioned the amount of E13b being accurate by the way. Purely based on the E10b we got last time it seemed a very reasonable figure. I only questioned the validity of the tweet originators sources (as I question most things I read these days).

Fully understand that. Happy to help.
The last 3 headings of this article might be useful too:

Regional economic policy | Institute for Government

We assess the government’s approach to reducing regional inequalities, and how it can learn from previous (mostly unsuccessful) attempts.

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk

 

[Emlynsqueakyvoice]

May 'did not understand EU when she triggered Brexit'

Former UK ambassador Ivan Rogers says PM’s negotiating strategy was doomed to fail

www.theguardian.com

Pathetic isn't it? The sheer arrogance of these politicians is amazing. May is the biggest shambles of a Prime Minister that we could hope to have in these negotiations, having advocated for Remain in the referendum. She then said that she would not be calling an election, then called one. She then patronises us with 'Brexit means Brexit', her government is found in contempt of Parliament, she then loses the vote on her 'deal' by 230 votes. Today, for the millionth time, she is sending her Attorney General to try to get a time limit on the the backstop arrangement, although the EU has knocked this 'time limit' proposal back all the way through these negotiations.
I agree with the mandarin that 'no deal' will ultimately not happen, but I think that any deal we do get (which will be wildly celebrated by the Tories as a victory for Britain) will be on inferior terms for this country. This country has been let down badly by the politicians.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Pathetic isn't it? The sheer arrogance of these politicians is amazing. May is the biggest shambles of a Prime Minister that we could hope to have in these negotiations, having advocated for Remain in the referendum. She then said that she would not be calling an election, then called one. She then patronises us with 'Brexit means Brexit', her government is found in contempt of Parliament, she then loses the vote on her 'deal' by 230 votes. Today, for the millionth time, she is sending her Attorney General to try to get a time limit on the the backstop arrangement, although the EU has knocked this 'time limit' proposal back all the way through these negotiations.
I agree with the mandarin that 'no deal' will ultimately not happen, but I think that any deal we do get (which will be wildly celebrated by the Tories as a victory for Britain) will be on inferior terms for this country. This country has been let down badly by the politicians.

What amazes me is just how confident they appear, despite being completely and utterly clueless. David Davis was the epitome, but Fox, Johnson and May have all suffered from it as well. I'm not at all surprised that @Armel says many in Europe are sick to death of us, as that's exactly how I'd feel if I had to put up with morons like that for the last two years.

 

[abelard]

What amazes me is just how confident they appear, despite being completely and utterly clueless.

at the institutions they've all attended, and in the crowds they inhabit, this is a feature not a bug

 

[Bruce Wayne]

at the institutions they've all attended, and in the crowds they inhabit, this is a feature not a bug

It's a good job the state don't run everything then really otherwise the damage they could do would be immense.

 

[abelard]

It's a good job the state don't run everything then really otherwise the damage they could do would be immense.

whereas on the other hand, they've done so brilliantly with Carillion, or the banks

 

[Bruce Wayne]

whereas on the other hand, they've done so brilliantly with Carillion, or the banks

It's funny isn't it? Marco Silva will likely get sacked for buying duff players, yet when the government are the buyer, it's always the supplier that's at fault. The fact is though that when we buy something from Carillion, we can go somewhere else if we're not happy. People are massively unhappy with this government and can do the square root of bugger all about it. Freeeeeedom.