Not for those countries that currently enjoy free trade with the EU namely Norway and Switzerland
Current Affairs EU In or Out
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Not for those countries that currently enjoy free trade with the EU namely Norway and Switzerland
MikeEFC1878x
Player Valuation: £1.5m
Economy in short term will take a hit but we are good enough to rebuild and come back stronger, the is more to just Economy vs Immigration to the argument, at least now we do not have to bail out Greece/ possibly Portugal and sign up for TTIP .
Old Blue 2
Player Valuation: £40m
Oh come on! What can the Leave campaign do now? It is now in the hands of the Government to carry out the mandate given by the referendum. Do you not understand that? THERE IS NOTHING FOR THE LEAVE CAMPAIGN TO DO! It is down to the politicians and civil servants now to carry it through to conclusion.
There is no charge for this exclusive piece of information, folks...
bobbydigital
Player Valuation: £1.5m
They hold the negotiating power don't they. Freedom of movement is one of their key principles. Look at Norway
MikeEFC1878x
Player Valuation: £1.5m
I wanted to remain but in all honesty I am excited for future now we are going to leave, we can do so much more.
PhilEFC
Player Valuation: £35m
But Gove, Johnson etc are part of the current government. I'd like to think they discussed it when they were talking about their campaign.
Old Blue 2
Player Valuation: £40m
Esk:
"...Forecasts that the economy is going to take a huge hit because of thethe uncertainty created by a Government that had no contingency plan?
That's not fear mongering it's an economic certainty..."
A forecast, by its mere nature, is NEVER a certainty. You must know that, surely...
It's called pissing in the wind...
"...Forecasts that the economy is going to take a huge hit because of thethe uncertainty created by a Government that had no contingency plan?
That's not fear mongering it's an economic certainty..."
A forecast, by its mere nature, is NEVER a certainty. You must know that, surely...
It's called pissing in the wind...
The Esk
Player Valuation: £70m
How about the £60-70 bn worth of value to the British economy in 2015 from the EU at the cost of a net £8.5 bn contribution?
How do we make up that amount?
Old Blue 2
Player Valuation: £40m
So they are part of the overall responsibilty to get things moving. They do not need to go to the media and start talking about all kinds of things relating to the separation. Those matters are for the Government to enter into, and may even be classed up to some point as 'Commercial in confidence', for want of a better term...
Plus, these things tend to take quite a while, and we can't begin until we're formally out of the EU. As an example though, we have (via the EU) trade agreements with 52 other countries, and the EU are currently in negotiations with a further 72. So when we leave, that's 124 new trade agreements that need to be agreed, plus a new one with the EU itself.
Now, trade agreements usually take a long time. As an example, the one recently agreed between the EU and Canada took roughly seven years from start to finish. So even if we take that as a conservative estimate (the deal with the EU is likely to be much more complex and therefore time consuming), that's seven years of abiding by the ok but hardly great WTO boiler plate rules. This is especially so as the EU themselves have said that most of their effort will go into unwinding the links we already have rather than creating new ones. To use Obama's term, we won't exactly be at the front of the queue when it comes to the time of the mandarins who do these kind of things (TTIP will be front of the queue you'd imagine - another treaty we're out of).
So, does this matter? Well the average WTO boiler plate tariff on UK exports to the EU would be set at 3.2%, which would work out at roughly £6bn, which is of course only an average as some industries will suffer much higher tariffs than others (fish for instance would have an 11% tariff whacked onto exports). Roughly 51% of our trade is with EU countries, and just 15% of our total trade is with countries not covered by EU trade agreements. So, in other words, for somewhere upwards of 7 years we're going to be stuck with shoddy trade agreements with roughly 85% of our trading partners.
Apart from that though, everything's great. #projectohshit
The Esk
Player Valuation: £70m
It's called having knowledge of what's happening in most boardrooms up and down the country as they prepare for a recession. They stop investing, Government's reduce spending - the economy gets smaller.
It happens every time there is an economic shock "a black Swan event", and we are right at the beginning of one of the biggest ever in the UK.
So it's not just a forecast it's based on precedent.
roydo
in memoriam - 1965-2024
Gonna have to sell Stones.
This must be the famous maturity and wisdom of older voters we've heard so much about.
MikeEFC1878x
Player Valuation: £1.5m
You sure it was 8.5 Bil? My understanding it was NET 35 MIL a day, 10 Bil a year and 350 Mil a week was false.
Good question, I do not know the answer in all honesty, I was for remain now I am more on fence I feel we can improve our economy and we are already 5th largest in world, I can not see EU not allowing us to enter back into single market Merkel would be out of power so fast if we could not buy Low tariff German cars etc.
Point is we can trade with europe and the world.
I am sure we can have access to single market but outside we can negotiate trade deals with world for example the was a Free Trade Agreement between Iceland and China
The is positives we can look forward two and after time we can re build stronger.
bobbydigital
Player Valuation: £1.5m
Economy in the short term will take a significant hit. I hope 20 years down the track it may be better, but this will be despite the leave vote rather than because of it.
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