Current Affairs EU In or Out

[abelard]

Did Austerity Cause Brexit?
https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/econo.../cage/manage/publications/381-2018_fetzer.pdf

Abstract
Did austerity cause Brexit? This paper shows that the rise of popular sup-
port for the UK Independence Party (UKIP), as the single most important
correlate of the subsequent Leave vote in the 2016 European Union (EU) refer-
endum, along with broader measures of political dissatisfaction, are strongly
and causally associated with an individual’s or an area’s exposure to aus-
terity since 2010. In addition to exploiting data from the population of all
electoral contests in the UK since 2000, I leverage detailed individual level
panel data allowing me to exploit within-individual variation in exposure to
specific rules-based welfare reforms as well as broader measures of political
preferences. The results suggest that the EU referendum could have resulted
in a Remain victory had it not been for a range of austerity-induced welfare
reforms. These reforms activated existing economic grievances. Further, aux-
iliary results suggest that the underlying economic grievances have broader
origins than what the current literature on Brexit suggests. Up until 2010,
the UK’s welfare state evened out growing income differences across the skill
divide through transfer payments. This pattern markedly stops from 2010
onwards as austerity started to bite.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

So you are really a multi tax, supragovernment, globalist...with liberal tendencies. You must miss the British Empire.....

I'm not sure the British empire imposing itself upon half the world was quite the same as what we have in the EU. But yes, very much a globalist rather than a nationalist. Humans have far more that binds them together than distinguishes them, and defining someone by virtue of the rock they were born on is really very silly.

 

[edge]

I thought I was the low tax, small government libertarian, not you? I'm so confused.

sound like Trump there Bruce

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Did Austerity Cause Brexit?
https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/econo.../cage/manage/publications/381-2018_fetzer.pdf

Abstract
Did austerity cause Brexit? This paper shows that the rise of popular sup-
port for the UK Independence Party (UKIP), as the single most important
correlate of the subsequent Leave vote in the 2016 European Union (EU) refer-
endum, along with broader measures of political dissatisfaction, are strongly
and causally associated with an individual’s or an area’s exposure to aus-
terity since 2010. In addition to exploiting data from the population of all
electoral contests in the UK since 2000, I leverage detailed individual level
panel data allowing me to exploit within-individual variation in exposure to
specific rules-based welfare reforms as well as broader measures of political
preferences. The results suggest that the EU referendum could have resulted
in a Remain victory had it not been for a range of austerity-induced welfare
reforms. These reforms activated existing economic grievances. Further, aux-
iliary results suggest that the underlying economic grievances have broader
origins than what the current literature on Brexit suggests. Up until 2010,
the UK’s welfare state evened out growing income differences across the skill
divide through transfer payments. This pattern markedly stops from 2010
onwards as austerity started to bite.

That's the key thing isn't it? For generations, the cracks in large numbers of communities have been papered rather than addressed head on by virtue of welfare payments. If welfare hasn't helped these communities get back on their own two feet, why would even more welfare do any better?

 

[Bruce Wayne]

sound like Trump there Bruce

Without wishing to sound like Joe as well, OUT

 

[abelard]

That's the key thing isn't it? For generations, the cracks in large numbers of communities have been papered rather than addressed head on by virtue of welfare payments. If welfare hasn't helped these communities get back on their own two feet, why would even more welfare do any better?

Impressed how you were able to read the full 100+ study so quickly!

Just keep seeing what you believe... working wonders so far, no?

 

[edge]

Did Austerity Cause Brexit?
https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/econo.../cage/manage/publications/381-2018_fetzer.pdf

Abstract
Did austerity cause Brexit? This paper shows that the rise of popular sup-
port for the UK Independence Party (UKIP), as the single most important
correlate of the subsequent Leave vote in the 2016 European Union (EU) refer-
endum, along with broader measures of political dissatisfaction, are strongly
and causally associated with an individual’s or an area’s exposure to aus-
terity since 2010. In addition to exploiting data from the population of all
electoral contests in the UK since 2000, I leverage detailed individual level
panel data allowing me to exploit within-individual variation in exposure to
specific rules-based welfare reforms as well as broader measures of political
preferences. The results suggest that the EU referendum could have resulted
in a Remain victory had it not been for a range of austerity-induced welfare
reforms. These reforms activated existing economic grievances. Further, aux-
iliary results suggest that the underlying economic grievances have broader
origins than what the current literature on Brexit suggests. Up until 2010,
the UK’s welfare state evened out growing income differences across the skill
divide through transfer payments. This pattern markedly stops from 2010
onwards as austerity started to bite.

think it was part of it, Blair/Brown open door policy ( that wasn't the EU fault) , Cameron getting nothing and misjudging the mood in the county, the EU not giving anything worth while for him to appease the voters with .
On top of that I think the leave camp tapped better into the feeling among some that those in power had no real regard for them so it was a chance to hit back those they though responsible for that.
lots more reason as well for different people.

 

[abelard]

On top of that I think the leave camp tapped better into the feeling among some that those in power had no real regard for them so it was a chance to hit back those they though responsible for that.

yes, this doesn't apply to everyone. plenty of Brexiters are more or less comfortable, financially and socially, and infinitely capable of indulging their own whims and prejudices. no amount of reasoning or reality will dissuade them (as this thread amply demonstrates).

but the referendum hinged on how a different set of voters, who didn't already have such clear views about the EU, responded when prompted. whatever else, they were/are certainly correct in determining that those in power have no real regard for them (as this thread again amply demonstrates).

this is mostly the sort of person you're characterising, for whom the allure of "taking back control", against a backdrop of the state-engineered evisceration of their communities and standards-of-living based on sham economics, most resonated.

this is also the sort of person who is more likely beginning to have second thoughts (unlike the Brexit bretheren represented so tirelessly and consistently on here).

 

[Old Blue 2]

Here's another Blairite rich former EU career person whos track record of hiding mortgage loans and his car scrappage scheme to push the sale of diesel cars - his outburst yesterday -again I point out it is self preservation for him for the UK to stay in the EU.......
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/bre...-Brexiteers-nationalists-hate-foreigners.html

A familiar ring, eh?

'Lack of patriotism, and exposing the country to danger.'
Sometimes, the soundbites don't change, only the individual...

 

[Anders_Limpar]

There have been attempts on this thread, but when most of the grievances could be tackled by the uk government already, those grievances changed. When every problem is the fault of the EU, even when it's not, it doesn't leave much scope to find common ground.

But if there is a second referendum - something is going to have to give.

Maybe if people felt that had another chance they would be open to revising their view (I'm not talking about the usual suspects on this thread) but more moderate voters - who were unsure in the last ref.

Having said that the real key would probably just to get the under 25's to vote in the same numbers as the over 70's.

 

[neil999]

A familiar ring, eh?

'Lack of patriotism, and exposing the country to danger.'
Sometimes, the soundbites don't change, only the individual...

errmm these are the tactics used to get people to vote leave

 

[abelard]

That's the key thing isn't it? For generations, the cracks in large numbers of communities have been papered rather than addressed head on by virtue of welfare payments. If welfare hasn't helped these communities get back on their own two feet, why would even more welfare do any better?

as if austerity is nothing more than witholding charity.

imagine beholding the collapsing health, education, transport, immigration, and justice systems - and concluding that funding them properly again is nothing more than "welfare" for people who "breed" excessively, and not something that affects the entire country, or that has brought about the worst economic performance of any developed country bar Greece.

you're sounding awfully like a Dickens villain of late. did a homeless person sneak a bite out of your Pret, or something?

 

[abelard]

A familiar ring, eh?


'Lack of patriotism, and exposing the country to danger.'
Sometimes, the soundbites don't change, only the individual...

you mean like this, right?

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Impressed how you were able to read the full 100+ study so quickly!

Just keep seeing what you believe... working wonders so far, no?

Touche, I did just go off of the abstract. It is true from my experience though, as I see a huge amount of time, effort and money put into generating economic activity, from creating new knowledge to commercialising that knowledge. The vast majority of that activity is concentrated in cities, often with a university at the heart. Very seldom is it concentrated on areas that have been 'left behind' for whatever reason, even if the projects are themselves ostensibly targeting disadvantaged groups, they tend to be disadvantaged groups in major cities. This has also been the finding of a substantial bit of research by the government office for science into adult education, ie that those who stand to benefit most from it, do it the least.

All I'm saying is that many of these areas have been in the doldrums for a very long time, and successive governments have failed to revitalise them, so there's a risk of conflating correlation and causation by saying austerity caused Brexit, when pre-austerity those places were doing no better than they are now (hence my papering over the cracks remark).

 

[Anders_Limpar]

yes, this doesn't apply to everyone. plenty of Brexiters are more or less comfortable, financially and socially, and infinitely capable of indulging their own whims and prejudices. no amount of reasoning or reality will dissuade them (as this thread amply demonstrates).

but the referendum hinged on how a different set of voters, who didn't already have such clear views about the EU, responded when prompted. whatever else, they were/are certainly correct in determining that those in power have no real regard for them (as this thread again amply demonstrates).

this is mostly the sort of person you're characterising, for whom the allure of "taking back control", against a backdrop of the state-engineered evisceration of their communities and standards-of-living based on sham economics, most resonated.

this is also the sort of person who is more likely beginning to have second thoughts (unlike the Brexit bretheren represented so tirelessly and consistently on here).

This is the key to winning any election though isn't it? Winning over the middle ground of people who could vote either way.

This was particularly hard for a remain campaign organised and led by Cameron and Osbourne, as they couldn't say to those people who's communities have been decimated by years of underfunding, that it wasn't the EU that has screwed them over, but their own government...