Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Bruce Wayne]

Been giving some thought to this today, whilst delivering a van full of parcels from all over the globe. I get a delivery of 1/2 dozen sacks at about 8.00am, trucked overnight from a London hub, then sorted by a largely foreign workforce at the Bristol depot.

So if we have a hard brexit, will every single trade agreement need to be in place the next day to allow the seamless import of said goods into Heathrow? Or into Amazon UK hubs?

And if not, what will happen?

Not sure anyone really knows mate. To give you an example though, people had two years to prepare for GDPR and it still managed to trip up a good few organisations. Multiple that over many more regulations with much less lead time and I can't say I'm that optimistic that the transition will be a smooth one.

 

[Ruairi77]

FLHD you seem to read posts without really understanding them. The trade deficit will force the EU elite to negotiate a realistic, mutually beneficial trade deal with the UK. Do you really think the EU member states are going to walk away from 80bn worth of trade just so the EU elite can bask in the glory of the EU project?

The EU have to play hard ball in order to stop the break up of the union.
It'll come down to a game of chicken and May will blink first. The UK will leave the EU but remain part of the customs union and allow free movement of EU citizens.
The only way to stop this happening is for the hard Brexiters to somehow take over the Conservative party without splitting it up. That's not going to happen, any new referendum would vote to remain and any GE would elect a pro soft Brexit government.
Now, more than ever, the EU holds the cards and May's job is to minimize the embarrassment of the process and try to sell the deal as being better than what it replaces, an unenviable task.

 

[roydo]

Not sure anyone really knows mate. To give you an example though, people had two years to prepare for GDPR and it still managed to trip up a good few organisations. Multiple that over many more regulations with much less lead time and I can't say I'm that optimistic that the transition will be a smooth one.

Not that reassuring mate.

Still, we get to make our own rules, so sound. Boris and Rees Mogg will sort us out, no doubt at all.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

You still don't get it do you FLHD. It won't be Merkel on the phone it will be the Chief Execs of BMW, Audi etc., and the Trade Unions of the laid off workers. Also, nothing was ever going to happen the day after the vote. Trade hasn''t even been discussed yet. Keep up.

The chief exec of BMW has already been on the blower saying that they’ll pull the plug on Mini...

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...tes-if-customs-delays-clog-supply-post-brexit

 

[Bruce Wayne]

As an aside, LSE have done a thing on entrepreneurialism across Europe lately, and the UK does well, and largely better than continental Europe. A large part of this is that we have excellent universities that are able to attract students from around the world, good legal and financial frameworks to support innovation, and access to the single market to help selling overseas. Whilst the legal and financial framework will surely persist, there must be doubts about both the access to talent and the ease of trading with Europe. The UK came, I think, 5th in the latest INSEAD Global Innovation Index, and has had a similarly lofty position for the last few years. Kinda important to maintain that, and it must surely be a legitimate concern that the universities and startup lobbying groups have all expressed significant concerns about the impact of Brexit on their ability to sustain this performance. They are the embodiment of the buccaneers who we'll be relying on to 'trade with the world'.

 

[roydo]

The chief exec of BMW has already been on the blower saying that they’ll pull the plug on Mini...

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...tes-if-customs-delays-clog-supply-post-brexit

Unfortunately, the fake Boris quote pretty much undermines the whole article.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

The EU have to play hard ball in order to stop the break up of the union.
It'll come down to a game of chicken and May will blink first. The UK will leave the EU but remain part of the customs union and allow free movement of EU citizens.
The only way to stop this happening is for the hard Brexiters to somehow take over the Conservative party without splitting it up. That's not going to happen, any new referendum would vote to remain and any GE would elect a pro soft Brexit government.
Now, more than ever, the EU holds the cards and May's job is to minimize the embarrassment of the process and try to sell the deal as being better than what it replaces, an unenviable task.

To be fair I don't think the EU are even playing hardball. They had their stall set out from before the campaign even began, and they've simply stuck to their guns. Sadly the government wasted a lot of time under the false belief that 'they need us more than we need them' and that they would kowtow to the mighty Albion.

Not that reassuring mate.

Still, we get to make our own rules, so sound. Boris and Rees Mogg will sort us out, no doubt at all.

Like I say, it probably wouldn't result in Mad Max, and they'd adapt eventually, but apart from fishing I'm not sure there has been much said, even in a propaganda sense, to suggest AN Industry will be better off as a result of leaving. I mean we're not going to become an agrarian society, so you'd think the Brexit department would have gone through the industries highlighted in the industrial strategy and said how they'll benefit from leaving, but I don't think there has been a peep. If Davis really has only spent four days actually negotiating, I'm not sure quite what he's been doing with his time.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

I think that is the most peurile post I have ever read on this site.

Stick around Joey will be on after he’s had his tea.

Oh and I’d hate to come across as puerile but it’s puerile mate.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

Unfortunately, the fake Boris quote pretty much undermines the whole article.

Yeah, I mean it’s unthinkable that our Foreign Secretary who's part of the ‘Party of Business’ would say anything as disgusting and dismissive as that.....

Oh.

 

[roydo]

Yeah, I mean it’s unthinkable that our Foreign Secretary who's part of the ‘Party of Business’ would say anything as disgusting and dismissive as that.....

Oh.

Wait. It is a real quote???

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Wait. It is a real quote???

I know someone who was at that meeting and can confirm it's authentic. Sadly he was more troubled by the fact that it was leaked than that Johnson said it in the first place.

 

[roydo]

I know someone who was at that meeting and can confirm it's authentic. Sadly he was more troubled by the fact that it was leaked than that Johnson said it in the first place.

Blimey. @Foot Long Hot Dog , soz mate.

 

[Joey66]

Do you understand product investment cycles ? Investment doesn’t go up and up every year, sometimes you invest and then reap the rewards later, which provides the funding for new product investments. What were the figures for 2010,11,12,13,14,15 from whoever you got your numbers.?......

@peteblue dont forget this poster has a crystal,ball as he can see Ito the future when he takes the crap out of his eyeslol

 

[Joey66]

Yes thanks do you? Do you understand the simple concept of an entire sectors investment levels being a good indicator of the level of confidence in this context?

I posted the numbers for 2015, if you want any more find them yourself.

FLHD no 2 googeler to @Bruce Wayne

 

[Joey66]

In seriousness, I can't help but enjoy this.

Was told countless times that the Labour Party were unelectable, and that we'd never see power for as long as we still to our principles.

How the tide has changed.

Except May will not be got rid of - it will just carry on for her term as Brexit will happen in any shape or form?