Neither side of the channel is in any way prepared for a ‘no deal’ Brexit. The paper agreed yesterday put an unlimited time frame on our ability to implement their chosen compromise, so it’ll take years for the necessary software and infrastructure to provide a workable alternative.
A ‘no deal’ exit would cripple us, but wouldn’t suit them either, both sides have been using the possibility as leverage, but the threats are hollow imho.
I don’t think for one minute that Mays compromise position has been put together without at least partial agreement on the outline of it already having been informally agreed by the EU. This is a game of charades as her biggest problem so far has been internally and not in Brussels. She’s battered the cabinet into submission, now she’s got to do the same with the more obstinate back benchers in the House, which will prove to be a more difficult challenge imo.
Europe have already begun preparations for a no deal brexit, in fact I’ve mentioned it a couple of months back when I attended about my 4th meeting in Brexit in London. Both Netherlands and France have poured millions into customs officials, some airports have already made amendments for the disembarkment of passengers.
I had a teleconference 2 weeks ago and it was highlighted that Europe have already informed the U.K. that if no deal is agreed that they will be treated as a third country and all imports will be subjected to relevant tariffs. The U.K. on the other hand is only now making preparations (which I am involved with as part of this working group) on dealing woth EU trade following a no deal brexit; they know we do not have the facilities to treat EU has third country (a terminology they not sure if they can even use in relation to the EU) and as such made recommendations to ministers that we accept all EU trade tariff free. This is what we seen yesterday.
The issue with the above is not they have been informally warned by the WTO that day 1 they will be subject to relevant fines for unfair trade deals by showing favouritism to the EU. This is why the EU are likely to reject any proposals like this, they know they hold all the cards
The government have well and truly cocked this up. 6 weeks prior to the Brexit vote we raised the question with our central government agencies regarding continuity plans for a leave vote; Cameron told all ministers that no contingency plans should be put in place because we will not be leaving.
18 months later and we are now, in some areas of government, making plans on how to deal with Brexit and they’re only partially through designing a new system to replace a European one which is critical for animal and human health.
It’s an absolute shambles. I’m not sure if May has or has not got a partial agreement in place, but from where I sit she hasn’t