Current Affairs EU In or Out

In or Out

  • In

    Votes: 688 67.9%

  • Out

    Votes: 325 32.1%
  • Total voters
    1,013
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peteblue said:
Bruce, of course we want a sensible negotiated agreement, that is right for both sides, but I’ll take the best alternative if it’s not going to happen. Anyone who has undertaken business forecasting or the 5 year plan knows that the first year is effectively next years budget, years 2-5 rarely survive the first year and so we get another 5 year plan. If we could forecast accurately their would be a single 5 year plan and it wouldn’t change for the next 5 years. Now ask any business if this has ever happened........

In terms of developing forecasts what you are looking for is trends and you look to have many differing forecasts to see if you can detect common trends. No one person knows, all have a guess based on what they know, what they think they know and what they believe. Even if you looked at the track of an existing Hurricane, the forecaster will only give an envelope of a possible course, based upon many many individual and separate predictions. Anyone who predicts the financial future and gets it right all the time is the richest person on the planet........the woman running the IMF and the guy running the OECD and these independent commentators are not.......
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So am I right in thinking from the above that you ignored input from those who almost certainly have access to more information than you do, and came up with your own conclusions?
 
Bruce Wayne said:
Incidentally Pete, I thought it might be interesting to look at some of those who correctly forecast the financial crash, and see what they think of Brexit.

Ann Petifor: "I voted to Remain. I do not believe that Brexit is a wise decision. I fear its consequences in energizing the Far Right both in Britain but also across both Europe and the US. I fear the break-up of the UK, and the political dominance of a small tribe of conservative ‘Little Englanders’. They will diminish this country’s great social, economic, and political achievements."

Nouriel Roubini in dangerously 'project fear' mode: "It could be – I’m not saying it is going to be – the beginning of the disintegration of the European Union or the Eurozone. At some point in the future, the Scots might decide to go for another referendum and it may be the break-up of the United Kingdom.Then the Catalans in Spain might say ‘me too’ and that might lead to the break-up of Spain."



Or maybe India's Raghuram Rajan: "If UK exits, that will create some market volatility. UK may suffer a significant fall in growth as its central bank has been saying."
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Dear god Bruce, ‘little englander’ comments, the Scots will break away, the EU will fall and one of these all seeing economists keeps 95% of his money in cash and only 5% in investments, yep he really knows which way the wind is blowing........
 
Bruce Wayne said:
So am I right in thinking from the above that you ignored input from those who almost certainly have access to more information than you do, and came up with your own conclusions?
Click to expand...

No. Based on previous success, information is indeed gathered from certain sources, but each carries a caveat. However the decisions are always finalised and agreed upon by a board of directors.......
 
peteblue said:
Dear god Bruce, ‘little englander’ comments, the Scots will break away, the EU will fall and one of these all seeing economists keeps 95% of his money in cash and only 5% in investments, yep he really knows which way the wind is blowing........
Click to expand...

Now you sound like a right wing conspiracy theorist (like the American ones). All economists are liars even though that's there expertise, as are scientists who say global warming is real. Do you know how that sounds Pete?

Who do you trust then to give you your facts? Yourself?

I have found it amusing how conservatives no matter what country they call home are all blinkered when it comes to progress and changing time and well taking experts advice, especially if it means something has to change.

Isn't that Britain's whole thing with Brexit? Tradition and britishness and that the EU is changing you or trying to change you and take your identity? The rest is a guise for me.

It's the same with conservatives in the US about gun control, women's rights etc... They want the roaring 50's again where everyone loved god and stayed in line.

Like the Australians who believe they should not change their currency and remove any inclining of the queen etc.... I could go on with other countries too.
 
steveojcc said:
Now you sound like a right wing conspiracy theorist (like the American ones). All economists are liars even though that's there expertise, as are scientists who say global warming is real. Do you know how that sounds Pete?

Who do you trust then to give you your facts? Yourself?

I have found it amusing how conservatives no matter what country they call home are all blinkered when it comes to progress and changing time and well taking experts advice, especially if it means something has to change.

Isn't that Britain's whole thing with Brexit? Tradition and britishness and that the EU is changing you or trying to change you and take your identity? The rest is a guise for me.

It's the same with conservatives in the US about gun control, women's rights etc... They want the roaring 50's again where everyone loved god and stayed in line.

Like the Australians who believe they should not change their currency and remove any inclining of the queen etc.... I could go on with other countries too.
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Here you go, here’s some economists.....but they predict the exact opposite of the economists who predict doom....so who are you going with......

https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/
 
peteblue said:
Here you go, here’s some economists.....but they predict the exact opposite of the economists who predict doom....so who are you going with......

https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/
Click to expand...

Oh come on Pete there are those yes that don't know anything or very little like every profession but there are those who do. You must know this with your wealth of experience as you have pointed out right? You must have come across guys in positions and asking yourself how? and then other who you say wow this person knows the sh*t? Right?

Its about researching where information comes from the source and using logic you know this. In the thread though and others you seem to have blinkers to suit your agenda though even though you do come across like a sound guy with a wealth of information you know?
 
steveojcc said:
Oh come on Pete there are those yes that don't know anything or very little like every profession but there are those who do. You must know this with your wealth of experience as you have pointed out right? You must have come across guys in positions and asking yourself how? and then other who you say wow this person knows the sh*t? Right?

Its about researching where information comes from the source and using logic you know this. In the thread though and others you seem to have blinkers to suit your agenda though even though you do come across like a sound guy with a wealth of information you know?
Click to expand...

Of course, there are always ‘go to’ people, but I would base it on track record. HMRC the IMF and the OECD all got it wrong.

In terms of the blinkers thing, I do actually take note when faced with a really good comment.......
 
peteblue said:
Bruce, of course we want a sensible negotiated agreement, that is right for both sides, but I’ll take the best alternative if it’s not going to happen. Anyone who has undertaken business forecasting or the 5 year plan knows that the first year is effectively next years budget, years 2-5 rarely survive the first year and so we get another 5 year plan. If we could forecast accurately their would be a single 5 year plan and it wouldn’t change for the next 5 years. Now ask any business if this has ever happened........

In terms of developing forecasts what you are looking for is trends and you look to have many differing forecasts to see if you can detect common trends. No one person knows, all have a guess based on what they know, what they think they know and what they believe. Even if you looked at the track of an existing Hurricane, the forecaster will only give an envelope of a possible course, based upon many many individual and separate predictions. Anyone who predicts the financial future and gets it right all the time is the richest person on the planet........the woman running the IMF and the guy running the OECD and these independent commentators are not.......
Click to expand...
The OECD aren't a collection of senior managers sat in a boardroom plucking numbers out of their arses though.

They're using a number of complex and detailed forecasting models, which whilst not guaranteed to be completely correct, are more than a decent indicator of the direction of travel...............
 
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