Current Affairs EU In or Out

In or Out

  • In

    Votes: 688 67.9%
  • Out

    Votes: 325 32.1%

  • Total voters
    1,013
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Sometimes you have to do what you feel is right. The point I made about the GDP was to show that even if we were to lose all trade to Europe (which is impossible as even in a no deal scenario we still trade but under WTO) it’s still only 8%. What will happen is that in a worst case condition we trade with the EU under WTO and also increase our RoW trade at a faster rate than we can do today. There will be no financial disaster. Our economy will grow at a much faster rate than even it has. We can open up the U.K. market for cheaper imports than we get from the EU and improve the lives of those at the bottom of society. The EU doesn’t understand free markets, it’s all about protectionism and control, just look at the CAP. It’s only growth will come from adding more countries into this political union. I don’t gamble, I am a rational thinker and don’t follow slogans or fads, and I’m not hung up on some ideology, I’m in this purely for the benefit of the U.K., my children and granddaughter.......

You're simplifying our default the to the WTO. There are several articles from economists on how it could be completely disastrous for us, and early signs are that NZ, USA and Argentina are going to make it difficult for us with regard to agriculture and food after we reached a preliminary quotas agreement with Brussels.

And a point you raised earlier about the expansion of the EU against British wishes. The UK was the chief advocate for EU expansion. We had a veto that could've stopped the 2004 and 2007 expansions (the ones Brexiters seem to abhor the most). Our government didn't use the veto. Furthermore, the UK immediately opened their job markets to the new eastern countries while others placed temporary restrictions on working rights of the citizens of these states in their countries.
 
Not sure I get your logic Pete. Companies in the UK aren't turning down trade with non-EU customers for the good of their health, so the government can only improve their lot by removing some of the barriers they have when trading overseas (whether tariff or non-tariff). I'm sure you are only too well aware that trade deals historically take a long time to arrange, and there has been precious little indication from other nations that we would get a trade deal easily, whether to replace what we have with the EU, or even to replicate what the EU has with the likes of Canada and Japan. These are all required to get to ground zero (ie replace what we're walking away from). That's a huge leap of faith, especially given that such negotiations would be led by the likes of Johnson, a man whose core skill seems to be annoying people and insulting them.

Regarding your comments about imports. Well, I'm dumbfounded to be honest as you've spent much of the preceding 1,400 pages saying how the crashing pound has been great for exports, yet now we're being told about a bright new future for importing?

Lastly, I don't suppose you'll find many who defend the CAP, and yes there are elements of the EU that are sops to national interests. No question at all. For CAP you can read Airbus as well. Politicians do that though don't they? I mean one of the reasons given for leaving was so that we can prop up failing industries. It's hard to reconcile this with an apparently anti-free market EU. It also overlooks key EU policies around things such as science and innovation. Unless you're speccy, this probably passed you by, but the official EU policy is open science, open innovation, open to the world. It underpins things like Horizon2020. It underpins a whole raft of digital policies. It has its roots in the free movement of people and ideas that are so important to the advancement of science.

Again, it's quite speccy so don't expect you to know, but most countries are trying to support startups to grow, and a big part of that is being able to trade internationally. Suffice to say, having contacts and support to tap into in whatever market you want to grow into helps, and the EU have projects to help do just that. I think there are around 30 British startups in it at the moment. Sure, you've got the likes of the UK India Business Council, which tries to do a similar thing with India, but it's poor and massively under-funded in comparison.

My comment about importing is regarding pricing. There are many parts of the world where commodities and food are much cheaper than the EU, our access to them is somewhat limited however by tariffs into the EU.....
 
It's estimated that 250,000 Americans die every year because their doctor makes a mistake. Tell me Pete, you fall sick tomorrow, would you not go to the doctor because they're wrong quite so often? Or would you go to the doctor because the alternative (going to a quack for instance) is even worse?

A doctor spends between 11-15 years training plus many years of practice to spot known ailments and diseases. Economists have a degree, analyse spreadsheets containing info that may or may not be valid against an assumption that may or may not materialise....

I would visit a doctor but not an economist.....
 
You're simplifying our default the to the WTO. There are several articles from economists on how it could be completely disastrous for us, and early signs are that NZ, USA and Argentina are going to make it difficult for us with regard to agriculture and food after we reached a preliminary quotas agreement with Brussels.

And a point you raised earlier about the expansion of the EU against British wishes. The UK was the chief advocate for EU expansion. We had a veto that could've stopped the 2004 and 2007 expansions (the ones Brexiters seem to abhor the most). Our government didn't use the veto. Furthermore, the UK immediately opened their job markets to the new eastern countries while others placed temporary restrictions on working rights of the citizens of these states in their countries.

Our government consisted of Tony Bliar and Gordon Brown......enough said really......
 
Don’t be silly. Not one forecaster or Financial body called it correctly. Not the IMF, nor the OECD, nor our own chancellor nor the HMRC. No one saw the 2008 banking crisis and no one saw our exit from the ERM. Why believe them now......
Here's the text of that FT article mate, I thought it was very apt :)


https://www.ft.com/content/524ae104-b250-11e7-a398-73d59db9e399?mhq5j=e6

As the bleakness of Britain’s Brexit dilemma becomes more apparent, so the search for scapegoats has begun. The Brexiters’ favourite target remains the EU itself. But the Leave campaign is now also rounding on the enemy within: the British people and institutions they accuse of undermining Brexit.Last week, it was the turn of the chancellor of the exchequer, Philip Hammond, labelled a “saboteur” by the Daily Mail. Lord Lawson, an 85-year-old former chancellor, called for Mr Hammond’s dismissal — for refusing to spend large amounts of money preparing for a no-deal Brexit. (The same Lord Lawson claims that Brexit will save Britain billions of pounds.) Julia Hartley-Brewer, a broadcaster and columnist, upped the ante by suggesting Mr Hammond should be tried for treason.

The list of British institutions where the Leavers sniff treason is long and growing. They include the BBC, the civil service, the City of London, leading universities and top lawyers as well as The Economist and the Financial Times. Yet the Brexiters’ search for “saboteurs” is dangerous to their own cause. It gives off a whiff of desperation and defeat, undermining the comforting fantasy that Britain is a united country, confidently pursuing Brexit. The saboteur hunt places the Leavers in the paradoxical situation of being arch-patriots who appear to distrust, and even detest, many of Britain’s most respected institutions. As a result, they risk turning into precisely what they accuse Remainers of being: “People who hate their own country.” The most disturbing example of a Brexit-driven witch-hunt remains the Daily Mail’s front page accusing Britain’s top judges of being “enemies of the people”, for ruling that parliament had to approve Britain’s decision to leave the EU. But now that the negotiations have begun, the search for domestic enemies is increasingly focused on government and the media.

Many Leavers believe that the problem is not just “negative” ministers such as the chancellor — but the officials who brief them. Bernard Jenkin, a senior backbench Conservative, recently published an article headlined — “It’s a sad truth; on Brexit we can’t trust the Treasury”. John Redwood, a like-minded colleague, has demanded that the Treasury should provide “more realistic, optimistic forecasts”. As for the Foreign Office, it has long been regarded by Brexiters as a nest of Remainers. RecommendedBoris Johnson styles himself as ‘godfather of Brexit’Brexit talks are at a standstill, warn diplomatsHow the City finally raised its voice over BrexitBut declaring a full-scale jihad against the civil service is a losing proposition. For it is civil servants who will have to perform the hard (and possibly hopeless) task of trying to negotiate a decent Brexit deal. The Leavers know that an impartial civil service is one of the British traditions that they claim to cherish. That tradition is genuine. Senior civil servants will do their utmost to implement policies that many of them profoundly disagree with. Unable to launch a full-scale attack on the civil service, the Leavers have instead made increasingly querulous complaints about the media. Jacob Rees-Mogg, darling of the Hard Brexiters, complained recently that the BBC has a “deep-seated anti-Brexit bias”.

Andrea Leadsom, a cabinet minister, has called for broadcasters to be more “patriotic” in their reporting. The obvious next play in the populist handbook would be to frame the whole issue as “the people versus the elite”. Quentin Letts, a journalist, has just published a book along these lines, called Patronising Bastards: How the Elites Betrayed Britain. But many of the most prominent Leavers, such as Michael Gove, Boris Johnson and Mr Rees-Mogg, are clearly members of the British elite and deeply proud of the fact. Even though much of the British establishment now actively despises the Gove-Johnson-Rees Mogg trio, these men are not eager to tear up their club membership cards.Much of the establishment despises the Gove-Johnson-Rees Mogg trio (Michael Gove and Boris Johnson pictured), these men are not eager to tear up their club membership cardsA full-scale Brexiter embrace of a culture war against the establishment would mean abandoning their fond hope that Britain will ultimately unite behind Brexit — and so frustrate the “knavish tricks” of the Europeans. Many Leavers long for Britain to rediscover the unity and national purpose that saw the country through the second world war.

This “finest hour” fantasy was stirred this summer by the release of the film, Dunkirk, which prompted Allison Pearson, a star writer for the Daily Telegraph, to write a column entitled — “For Brexit to work we need Dunkirk spirit, not Naysaying Nellies”.But the comparison between Brexit and the second world war is too obviously ridiculous to create the national unity that the Leavers long for. Just as Remainers have been disappointed by the stubborn refusal of Leave voters to change their minds; so the Brexiters have had to accept that roughly half the country still thinks Brexit is a mistake. Indeed last week, we discovered that this group probably includes Theresa May — with the prime minister refusing to say that she would now vote Leave, if there were another referendum.It is possible that — as the negotiations get rougher and even break down — a nationalistic instinct will kick in, and more Remainers will rally around the Union Jack. But, after a humbling and economically destructive Brexit, there will be plenty of anger to go around — and the divisions within British society will also grow. The hunt for the “guilty men” has only just begun.
 
Unfortunately mate it's blindingly obvious how weak our position is. Juncker and co don't need to read message boards, listen to conversations or whatever you think they are doing to figure that out.

They don't need a deal as much as we do. They won't want to make leaving easy. They hold all the cards.

I know you are going to disagree, try and spin it, blame everyone else etc but look, that is the reality and no amount of mindlessly saying this is smart makes it smart.

Ok, they hold all the cards and we must pay what they want. Please make your household cheque out to Mr Juncker to the sum of £4000 and send it to Brussels.......
 
Here's the text of that FT article mate, I thought it was very apt :)


https://www.ft.com/content/524ae104-b250-11e7-a398-73d59db9e399?mhq5j=e6

As the bleakness of Britain’s Brexit dilemma becomes more apparent, so the search for scapegoats has begun. The Brexiters’ favourite target remains the EU itself. But the Leave campaign is now also rounding on the enemy within: the British people and institutions they accuse of undermining Brexit.Last week, it was the turn of the chancellor of the exchequer, Philip Hammond, labelled a “saboteur” by the Daily Mail. Lord Lawson, an 85-year-old former chancellor, called for Mr Hammond’s dismissal — for refusing to spend large amounts of money preparing for a no-deal Brexit. (The same Lord Lawson claims that Brexit will save Britain billions of pounds.) Julia Hartley-Brewer, a broadcaster and columnist, upped the ante by suggesting Mr Hammond should be tried for treason.

The list of British institutions where the Leavers sniff treason is long and growing. They include the BBC, the civil service, the City of London, leading universities and top lawyers as well as The Economist and the Financial Times. Yet the Brexiters’ search for “saboteurs” is dangerous to their own cause. It gives off a whiff of desperation and defeat, undermining the comforting fantasy that Britain is a united country, confidently pursuing Brexit. The saboteur hunt places the Leavers in the paradoxical situation of being arch-patriots who appear to distrust, and even detest, many of Britain’s most respected institutions. As a result, they risk turning into precisely what they accuse Remainers of being: “People who hate their own country.” The most disturbing example of a Brexit-driven witch-hunt remains the Daily Mail’s front page accusing Britain’s top judges of being “enemies of the people”, for ruling that parliament had to approve Britain’s decision to leave the EU. But now that the negotiations have begun, the search for domestic enemies is increasingly focused on government and the media.

Many Leavers believe that the problem is not just “negative” ministers such as the chancellor — but the officials who brief them. Bernard Jenkin, a senior backbench Conservative, recently published an article headlined — “It’s a sad truth; on Brexit we can’t trust the Treasury”. John Redwood, a like-minded colleague, has demanded that the Treasury should provide “more realistic, optimistic forecasts”. As for the Foreign Office, it has long been regarded by Brexiters as a nest of Remainers. RecommendedBoris Johnson styles himself as ‘godfather of Brexit’Brexit talks are at a standstill, warn diplomatsHow the City finally raised its voice over BrexitBut declaring a full-scale jihad against the civil service is a losing proposition. For it is civil servants who will have to perform the hard (and possibly hopeless) task of trying to negotiate a decent Brexit deal. The Leavers know that an impartial civil service is one of the British traditions that they claim to cherish. That tradition is genuine. Senior civil servants will do their utmost to implement policies that many of them profoundly disagree with. Unable to launch a full-scale attack on the civil service, the Leavers have instead made increasingly querulous complaints about the media. Jacob Rees-Mogg, darling of the Hard Brexiters, complained recently that the BBC has a “deep-seated anti-Brexit bias”.

Andrea Leadsom, a cabinet minister, has called for broadcasters to be more “patriotic” in their reporting. The obvious next play in the populist handbook would be to frame the whole issue as “the people versus the elite”. Quentin Letts, a journalist, has just published a book along these lines, called Patronising Bastards: How the Elites Betrayed Britain. But many of the most prominent Leavers, such as Michael Gove, Boris Johnson and Mr Rees-Mogg, are clearly members of the British elite and deeply proud of the fact. Even though much of the British establishment now actively despises the Gove-Johnson-Rees Mogg trio, these men are not eager to tear up their club membership cards.Much of the establishment despises the Gove-Johnson-Rees Mogg trio (Michael Gove and Boris Johnson pictured), these men are not eager to tear up their club membership cardsA full-scale Brexiter embrace of a culture war against the establishment would mean abandoning their fond hope that Britain will ultimately unite behind Brexit — and so frustrate the “knavish tricks” of the Europeans. Many Leavers long for Britain to rediscover the unity and national purpose that saw the country through the second world war.

This “finest hour” fantasy was stirred this summer by the release of the film, Dunkirk, which prompted Allison Pearson, a star writer for the Daily Telegraph, to write a column entitled — “For Brexit to work we need Dunkirk spirit, not Naysaying Nellies”.But the comparison between Brexit and the second world war is too obviously ridiculous to create the national unity that the Leavers long for. Just as Remainers have been disappointed by the stubborn refusal of Leave voters to change their minds; so the Brexiters have had to accept that roughly half the country still thinks Brexit is a mistake. Indeed last week, we discovered that this group probably includes Theresa May — with the prime minister refusing to say that she would now vote Leave, if there were another referendum.It is possible that — as the negotiations get rougher and even break down — a nationalistic instinct will kick in, and more Remainers will rally around the Union Jack. But, after a humbling and economically destructive Brexit, there will be plenty of anger to go around — and the divisions within British society will also grow. The hunt for the “guilty men” has only just begun.

It’s a nice article with a hint or mere whiff of truth. It all depends on people’s views of the National Interest.......
 
A doctor spends between 11-15 years training plus many years of practice to spot known ailments and diseases. Economists have a degree, analyse spreadsheets containing info that may or may not be valid against an assumption that may or may not materialise....

I would visit a doctor but not an economist.....

That wasn't the point I was making Pete. You've spoken extensively about negotiating during this thread so I'll assume you know about BATNA. I'll also assume, as you were a senior executive and all, that you believe in the value of forecasting future performances.

So, I'll ask you, seeing as you don't seem to trust those who spend their life trying to forecast economic performance, who (or where) would you go to for insight?
 
I see Juncker is having dinner with the awkward squad (Visegrad) to whip them into line.......I hope he invites Austria as well now.....

You like Babis Pete? Ex-communist who used party connections to make billions, fraudulently claimed EU subsidies and has bought the two leading newspapers to further his agenda. You like Babis?
 
That wasn't the point I was making Pete. You've spoken extensively about negotiating during this thread so I'll assume you know about BATNA. I'll also assume, as you were a senior executive and all, that you believe in the value of forecasting future performances.

So, I'll ask you, seeing as you don't seem to trust those who spend their life trying to forecast economic performance, who (or where) would you go to for insight?
...and the referee checks the table....and yes that's definitely a full ball snooker.......
 
That wasn't the point I was making Pete. You've spoken extensively about negotiating during this thread so I'll assume you know about BATNA. I'll also assume, as you were a senior executive and all, that you believe in the value of forecasting future performances.

So, I'll ask you, seeing as you don't seem to trust those who spend their life trying to forecast economic performance, who (or where) would you go to for insight?

Bruce, of course we want a sensible negotiated agreement, that is right for both sides, but I’ll take the best alternative if it’s not going to happen. Anyone who has undertaken business forecasting or the 5 year plan knows that the first year is effectively next years budget, years 2-5 rarely survive the first year and so we get another 5 year plan. If we could forecast accurately their would be a single 5 year plan and it wouldn’t change for the next 5 years. Now ask any business if this has ever happened........

In terms of developing forecasts what you are looking for is trends and you look to have many differing forecasts to see if you can detect common trends. No one person knows, all have a guess based on what they know, what they think they know and what they believe. Even if you looked at the track of an existing Hurricane, the forecaster will only give an envelope of a possible course, based upon many many individual and separate predictions. Anyone who predicts the financial future and gets it right all the time is the richest person on the planet........the woman running the IMF and the guy running the OECD and these independent commentators are not.......
 
Incidentally Pete, I thought it might be interesting to look at some of those who correctly forecast the financial crash, and see what they think of Brexit.

Ann Petifor: "I voted to Remain. I do not believe that Brexit is a wise decision. I fear its consequences in energizing the Far Right both in Britain but also across both Europe and the US. I fear the break-up of the UK, and the political dominance of a small tribe of conservative ‘Little Englanders’. They will diminish this country’s great social, economic, and political achievements."

Nouriel Roubini in dangerously 'project fear' mode: "It could be – I’m not saying it is going to be – the beginning of the disintegration of the European Union or the Eurozone. At some point in the future, the Scots might decide to go for another referendum and it may be the break-up of the United Kingdom.Then the Catalans in Spain might say ‘me too’ and that might lead to the break-up of Spain."



Or maybe India's Raghuram Rajan: "If UK exits, that will create some market volatility. UK may suffer a significant fall in growth as its central bank has been saying."
 
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