Current Affairs EU In or Out

[peteblue]

You're quoting the Daily Express here, isn't that one of the more extreme right-wing tabloids in the U.K - one of the mouthpieces for UKIP. They will only tell you want you want to believe. You're better off reading local German newspapers if you're interested in the German pov.

Also AfD is (very) right wing. To the extent that people left the party in 2015 for Islamophobia and other horrible ordeals. They hold no real power. You have fun people in there like Von Storch that want to stop refugees at the border and if they refuse to listen they support the use of guns (including on women and children). Other decent parties refuse to deal with them for obvious reasons. They are not the allies you want.

I'm not suggesting they are. But I happen to believe that the numbers being quoted point to a favourable outcome. Similarly the overall EU numbers do the same, and while newer members do not do much business with the UK, it's the countries that will be affected in the EU who need to speak up......which was my point....

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Hans-Olaf Henkel said it should be Germany leading the efforts in Brussels to ensure Britain leave the EU without a punishment, which has been suggested should happen by leading figures across the bloc.

According to the Office for National Statistics, Germany currently benefits from a £25bn trade deficit – meaning the Germany sells more to UK than it buys – but that could all change if Britain is unable to sign an agreement to allow it to trade inside the EU’s single market.

Mr Henkel, the vice-chairman of the European Parliament’s third biggest group, the European Conservatives and Reformists, urged his fellow Germans to support Britain for the sake of their country’s businesses.

When asked whether Germany should be worried about Brussels bullying the UK, he responded: “Of course, that figure says it all.

“Germany should be the country saying, ‘For Christ’s sake, give them the best trade deal possible’.

Ostensibly yes, but Germany sells much more to the other 26 EU nations than it does to the UK on its own, so whilst I'm sure they very much want a good deal with the UK, I very much doubt they want one at the expense of the other 26 nations. France alone buys more things from Germany than the UK does, with the Dutch not far behind. Add in 6 EU countries from the top 10 Germany exporters and it comes to over 4.5 times what they export to the UK, and that's without taking account of the other 19 EU countries.

Another thing to remember is that the EU currently take something akin to 50% of our exports. The Commonwealth, despite having twice as many members and long, historic ties with the UK, takes 9%, with that figure going down in recent years.

 

[peteblue]

Ostensibly yes, but Germany sells much more to the other 26 EU nations than it does to the UK on its own, so whilst I'm sure they very much want a good deal with the UK, I very much doubt they want one at the expense of the other 26 nations. France alone buys more things from Germany than the UK does, with the Dutch not far behind. Add in 6 EU countries from the top 10 Germany exporters and it comes to over 4.5 times what they export to the UK, and that's without taking account of the other 19 EU countries.

Another thing to remember is that the EU currently take something akin to 50% of our exports. The Commonwealth, despite having twice as many members and long, historic ties with the UK, takes 9%, with that figure going down in recent years.

Germany's top two trading surpluses are with the USA and the U.K....

Edit...in fact it is the UK then the USA.....

 

[Bruce Wayne]

I'm not suggesting they are. But I happen to believe that the numbers being quoted point to a favourable outcome. Similarly the overall EU numbers do the same, and while newer members do not do much business with the UK, it's the countries that will be affected in the EU who need to speak up......which was my point....

The thing is Pete, different countries want different things from a relationship with the UK. That was put quite starkly when May trotted out to India hoping to strike a trade deal, when what India wanted most of all was for our government to stop being dicks about immigration numbers. Trade was secondary to the movement of people. I suspect that is very similar for places like Poland.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Germany's top two trading surpluses are with the USA and the U.K....

Germany has trade surpluses with a lot of countries. Indeed, their trade surplus is a bone of contention for many in the G8.

 

[peteblue]

A

Germany has trade surpluses with a lot of countries. Indeed, their trade surplus is a bone of contention for many in the G8.

Have a look at this.....

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFig...anyTradingPartners.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

Now tell me that Germany doesn't want to have a great trading relationship with the UK......

 

[peteblue]

The thing is Pete, different countries want different things from a relationship with the UK. That was put quite starkly when May trotted out to India hoping to strike a trade deal, when what India wanted most of all was for our government to stop being dicks about immigration numbers. Trade was secondary to the movement of people. I suspect that is very similar for places like Poland.

India is not interested in the movement of people like the EU. India just wants its graduates and business people to have easy access to help develop business, they are not looking to have 500million Indians move to the UK. Germany has a massive surplus in trade with the U.K., bigger than many countries added together, and it's an easy market. The guy who said that Germany will want a good Brexit deal is spot on.....

 

[Armel]

I'm not suggesting they are. But I happen to believe that the numbers being quoted point to a favourable outcome. Similarly the overall EU numbers do the same, and while newer members at not do much business with the UK, it's the countries that will be affected in the EU who need to speak up......which was my point....

I don't see a favourable outcome mate. It all doesn't matter. Especially since everybody has to agree, and a few countries don't sell to the UK and some countries see themselves as a future competitor for the UK... On top of that the clock is ticking and nothing seems to be happening, this in turn leads to the creation of all sorts of Brexit-preperation groups and so on in a lot of countries (including Belgium; hard Brexit isn't good for a couple of sectors but in percentage it appears to be quite manageable) everybody is already preparing for the inevitable anyway. For what it's worth, a few weeks back I met my old European law professor - Marc Maresceau (advisor for the European commission from time to time, quite well connected and liked in EU circles etc)- he also couldn't see a favourable outcome at that point from what he had heard. Credit to him though for predicting the Brexit back in 2012. It's an incredibly complex affair; mountains and mountains of rules.

There are already is a lobby group that is in favour of a bit more leniency towards the UK, but they won't make a difference. Holland, Denmark and Ireland. Already held an informal summit. You could even extend it to Finland and Sweden. There is also Belgium off course one of the countries that will be most affected by Brexit (for obvious reasons) because of the very intense trade relations, but this isn't happening. The north, Flanders, would help but it can't since the Walloons don't do trade with the UK so they prefer a hard stance. So the compromise is wait-and-see. Doesn't matter anyway.

It is what it is.

 

[peteblue]

I don't see a favourable outcome mate. It all doesn't matter. Especially since everybody has to agree, and a few countries don't sell to the UK and some countries see themselves as a future competitor for the UK... On top of that the clock is ticking and nothing seems to be happening, this in turn leads to the creation of all sorts of Brexit-preperation groups and so on in a lot of countries (including Belgium; hard Brexit isn't good for a couple of sectors but in percentage it appears to be quite manageable) everybody is already preparing for the inevitable anyway. For what it's worth, a few weeks back I met my old European law professor - Marc Maresceau (advisor for the European commission from time to time, quite well connected and liked in EU circles etc)- he also couldn't see a favourable outcome at that point from what he had heard. Credit to him though for predicting the Brexit back in 2012. It's an incredibly complex affair; mountains and mountains of rules.

There are already is a lobby group that is in favour of a bit more leniency towards the UK, but they won't make a difference. Holland, Denmark and Ireland. Already held an informal summit. You could even extend it to Finland and Sweden. There is also Belgium off course one of the countries that will be most affected by Brexit (for obvious reasons) because of the very intense trade relations, but this isn't happening. The north, Flanders, would help but it can't since the Walloons don't do trade with the UK so they prefer a hard stance. So the compromise is wait-and-see. Doesn't matter anyway.

It is what it is.

Indeed. Well what will be will be. I'm pretty confident of our future, even though Germany gets to rule the rest of Europe after all..........I hope the rest of you enjoy being taken advantage of.......

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Indeed. Well what will be will be. I'm pretty confident of our future, even though Germany gets to rule the rest of Europe after all..........I hope the rest of you enjoy being taken advantage of.......

If you think Germany rules Europe, presumably you believe America rules the world? They exert at least a proportionate influence, culturally, economically, militarily.

 

[peteblue]

If you think Germany rules Europe, presumably you believe America rules the world? They exert at least a proportionate influence, culturally, economically, militarily.

Germany now holds direct political sway over 26 other EU countries via their contribution to the budget and their ever increasing grip upon the EU Commission and European Central Bank. That's just the way it is. While America may not rule the world, they are without doubt the worlds biggest influencer, its biggest economy and its only superpower. The EU has been flexing its muscles and is trying to compete with the USA, but it has to speak with 27 voices (you'll note I have already removed the UK from the numbers), and then agree it with Germany who will then invite France in for political agreement and photographs.......

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

India is not interested in the movement of people like the EU. India just wants its graduates and business people to have easy access to help develop business, they are not looking to have 500million Indians move to the UK. Germany has a massive surplus in trade with the U.K., bigger than many countries added together, and it's an easy market. The guy who said that Germany will want a good Brexit deal is spot on.....

“mobility issues are of importance to us; we cannot separate free movement of people from the free flow of goods, services and investments"

What the Indians told Boris when he went over there last year, sound familiar Pete?

The fact that you mention 500 million Indians sort of sums up your entire inaccurate thought process when it comes to our current freedom of movement and economic migration with the EU. It's Daily Mail'esque

 

[peteblue]

“mobility issues are of importance to us; we cannot separate free movement of people from the free flow of goods, services and investments"

What the Indians told Boris when he went over there last year, sound familiar Pete?

The fact that you mention 500 million Indians sort of sums up your entire inaccurate thought process when it comes to our current freedom of movement and economic migration with the EU. It's Daily Mail'esque

Which countries do India trade with that allow free movement of people ?. Which countries do you believe will sign any kind of a trade deal that gives unrestricted freedom of movement ?......

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

Which countries do India trade with that allow free movement of people ?. Which countries do you believe will sign any kind of a trade deal that gives unrestricted freedom of movement ?......

Nepal? dunno give up.

Why does freedom of movement worry you Tories so much? As long as there's no requirement for the state to fund the upkeep of individuals who arrive here, then they would be economic migrants and here to work - either already arranged or with enough to support them until they get sorted.

What's wrong with that idea as a global ideal Pete?

 

[peteblue]

Nepal? dunno give up.

Why does freedom of movement worry you Tories so much? As long as there's no requirement for the state to fund the upkeep of individuals who arrive here, then they would be economic migrants and here to work - either already arranged or with enough to support them until they get sorted.

What's wrong with that idea as a global ideal Pete?

Nothing in principle. Some small practicality issues like provision of housing, schooling, health, law and order perhaps.....