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Donald Trump for President Thread
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Norwegian Cow
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Fair play to Hitler too. He was also unstoppable
urrmmm... I think you'll find he wasn't.....
These violent protesters are a stain on society. Don't get their own way so go around mindlessly wrecking and burning anything that they come across.
Now this is the so called more educated side that lost but if clinton won would this sort of behaviour have occured from the apparent uneducated side ?
Now this is the so called more educated side that lost but if clinton won would this sort of behaviour have occured from the apparent uneducated side ?
neil999
Player Valuation: £80m
They are only doing what trump advocated after he thought Romney had won popular vote..
To emphasise my point, the UK Chief Scientific Advisor released a paper yesterday on AI.
"More widely, it is likely that technological change could mean that job-specific skills may perish more quickly and people may change jobs more frequently. This emphasises the need for re-skilling over the course of a career"
Which is pretty much identical to a similar paper from the Science & Technology Select Committee last month. The notion that rustbelt jobs are going to return by building a wall or controlling immigration is dishonest in the extreme.
"More widely, it is likely that technological change could mean that job-specific skills may perish more quickly and people may change jobs more frequently. This emphasises the need for re-skilling over the course of a career"
Which is pretty much identical to a similar paper from the Science & Technology Select Committee last month. The notion that rustbelt jobs are going to return by building a wall or controlling immigration is dishonest in the extreme.
I can appreciate the scale and ambition of a year long episode of "Black Mirror" but can someone make it stop now, please. Enough, Charlie.
I can see many folks with the best of intentions attempting to sort something that is still inconceivable within the framework of the intellectual map you have on board to measure the events of the last 48 hours. There are a couple of us who do not sing out of the same hymnal that love the people here and want to share viewpoints that help make things make more sense. This is posted in that effort. We could drill down and battle over various points of the below, but frankly, some of us are tired of getting beat up over it. When we walk away is when you should prepare for what's coming next, as it won't be from us.
With that said, I recommend you read the following. With respect, from my sensei:
It's important to see the failed 2016 Clinton presidential campaign in terms of intelligence failure because the same could happen to anyone. It could for example happen to the US armed forces when least expected. Therefore it's important to examine how such failures occur in order to avoid finishing up like Hillary in the recently concluded election: the sure winner one day who 12 hours later was the abject loser.
The question of how such an overwhelming political force could lose so badly when every one of its indicators predicted success was raised by Jim Newell of Slate. "I think of the lawmakers, the consultants, the operatives, and—yes—the center-left media, and how everything said over the past few years leading up to this night was bulls**t." The BS assured them they were on the verge of annihilating the Deplorables. A few dizzying hours later the predicted disaster had happened -- but to them.
The Democrats will now control next to nothing above the municipal level. Donald Trump will be president. We are going to be unpacking this night for the rest of our lives, and lives beyond that. We can’t comprehend even 1 percent of what’s just happened. But one aspect of it, minor in the overall sweep, that I’m pretty sure we can comprehend well enough right now: The Democratic Party establishment has beclowned itself and is finished.
One reason for the failure identified by Newell was that Hillary's analysts became invested in their own predictions. "Theoretically smart people in the Democratic Party ... worked giddily to clear the field for her. Every power-hungry young Democrat fresh out of law school, every rising lawmaker, every old friend of the Clintons wanted a piece of the action. This was their ride up the power chain." They predicted they would do well. Of course they would predict that.
Other "gains" ultimately proved poisoned pawns. The corruption of the mainstream media did nothing more than open the doors to disaster. By turning the MSM into an adjunct of the progressive cause they stilled the last voices that would tell them the truth. By election day there was no one left to warn them and bam! they walked right into it.
There is one other factor implied in the Newell piece which he neglects to develop. The campaign models became the data themselves. The indicators became the inputs and whole apparatus self-referentially detached itself from reality. The progressive "demographic model" (which models identity politics) constrained what the Hillary campaign could conceive. The reason progressive politics is about race is their models are about race. With only such a limited vocabulary there were some ideas the model could simply not express. They were unsayable. Newell doesn't even know how to begin to formulate the problem in this limited language.
It may still be true that in the long term, Republicans can’t win with their demographics, but we found out Tuesday that the long term is still pretty far away. Democrats have to win more white voters. They have to do so in a way that doesn’t erode the anti-racist or anti-sexist planks of the modern party, which are non-negotiable. If only there were a model for this. There was no model for prosperous non-hyphenated America because their model prepended everything with the hyphen that was assigned.
The identity politics model was essentially a promise machine which calculated how many votes could be obtained by appealing to a given population segment. Plug in the variables: cisgendered, black, college educated etc and out comes a "message" with its estimated yield in votes. Hillary was the end point of this political sausage making machine. According to their demographic model Hillary had enough messages to conquer the world.
Unfortunately messages were not reality. "Between the idea and the reality, between the motion and the act falls the Shadow," as TS Eliot once put it. There were plenty of shadows. Whatever its utility the Promise Machine might have been for campaigning it did nothing to deliver. People who did not think of themselves in racial terms 24x7 started noticing things going downhill. These parts of them lived outside the model.
They lived in an America -- the everyday America -- that the model had written off. But the progressive machine could not notice. All it did was constrain common sense policy to the point where governance became impossible, foreign policy itself became untenable without running afoul of some promise created by the model.
The more the Promise Machine cranked out the worse governance became. It was as if the Hillary campaign were gaming their moves against themselves rather than contra the actual foe, which is Reality. As such they were ace in their synthetic world but s**t outside of it. They were 'historic' in their own universe but losers outside of it.
The seeds for an intelligence failure of monumental proportions were sown. Right on schedule they gulled themselves over a cliff.
The the way to avoid such failures is simple -- but hard. The lesson is this. Don't try to take over the intellectual world. Don't try to create an echo chamber or Promise Machine. Don't try to homogenize the Narrative. These lessons are important to grasp if America is not to lose to some apparently weak foe. Romans knew how powerful a toxin self-deception could be, as did some Hollywood screenwriters; at least the ones who scripted the 1970 movie Patton, which ends with the title character thinking these thoughts:
“For over a thousand years Roman conquerors returning from the wars enjoyed the honor of triumph, a tumultuous parade. In the procession came trumpeters, musicians and strange animals from conquered territories, together with carts laden with treasure and captured armaments. The conquerors rode in a triumphal chariot, the dazed prisoners walking in chains before him. Sometimes his children robed in white stood with him in the chariot or rode the trace horses. A slave stood behind the conqueror holding a golden crown and whispering in his ear a warning: that all glory is fleeting.”
Don't listen just to the musicians. Heed also the slave. Do not silence the critics. All glory is fleeting.
With that said, I recommend you read the following. With respect, from my sensei:
It's important to see the failed 2016 Clinton presidential campaign in terms of intelligence failure because the same could happen to anyone. It could for example happen to the US armed forces when least expected. Therefore it's important to examine how such failures occur in order to avoid finishing up like Hillary in the recently concluded election: the sure winner one day who 12 hours later was the abject loser.
The question of how such an overwhelming political force could lose so badly when every one of its indicators predicted success was raised by Jim Newell of Slate. "I think of the lawmakers, the consultants, the operatives, and—yes—the center-left media, and how everything said over the past few years leading up to this night was bulls**t." The BS assured them they were on the verge of annihilating the Deplorables. A few dizzying hours later the predicted disaster had happened -- but to them.
The Democrats will now control next to nothing above the municipal level. Donald Trump will be president. We are going to be unpacking this night for the rest of our lives, and lives beyond that. We can’t comprehend even 1 percent of what’s just happened. But one aspect of it, minor in the overall sweep, that I’m pretty sure we can comprehend well enough right now: The Democratic Party establishment has beclowned itself and is finished.
One reason for the failure identified by Newell was that Hillary's analysts became invested in their own predictions. "Theoretically smart people in the Democratic Party ... worked giddily to clear the field for her. Every power-hungry young Democrat fresh out of law school, every rising lawmaker, every old friend of the Clintons wanted a piece of the action. This was their ride up the power chain." They predicted they would do well. Of course they would predict that.
Other "gains" ultimately proved poisoned pawns. The corruption of the mainstream media did nothing more than open the doors to disaster. By turning the MSM into an adjunct of the progressive cause they stilled the last voices that would tell them the truth. By election day there was no one left to warn them and bam! they walked right into it.
There is one other factor implied in the Newell piece which he neglects to develop. The campaign models became the data themselves. The indicators became the inputs and whole apparatus self-referentially detached itself from reality. The progressive "demographic model" (which models identity politics) constrained what the Hillary campaign could conceive. The reason progressive politics is about race is their models are about race. With only such a limited vocabulary there were some ideas the model could simply not express. They were unsayable. Newell doesn't even know how to begin to formulate the problem in this limited language.
It may still be true that in the long term, Republicans can’t win with their demographics, but we found out Tuesday that the long term is still pretty far away. Democrats have to win more white voters. They have to do so in a way that doesn’t erode the anti-racist or anti-sexist planks of the modern party, which are non-negotiable. If only there were a model for this. There was no model for prosperous non-hyphenated America because their model prepended everything with the hyphen that was assigned.
The identity politics model was essentially a promise machine which calculated how many votes could be obtained by appealing to a given population segment. Plug in the variables: cisgendered, black, college educated etc and out comes a "message" with its estimated yield in votes. Hillary was the end point of this political sausage making machine. According to their demographic model Hillary had enough messages to conquer the world.
Unfortunately messages were not reality. "Between the idea and the reality, between the motion and the act falls the Shadow," as TS Eliot once put it. There were plenty of shadows. Whatever its utility the Promise Machine might have been for campaigning it did nothing to deliver. People who did not think of themselves in racial terms 24x7 started noticing things going downhill. These parts of them lived outside the model.
They lived in an America -- the everyday America -- that the model had written off. But the progressive machine could not notice. All it did was constrain common sense policy to the point where governance became impossible, foreign policy itself became untenable without running afoul of some promise created by the model.
The more the Promise Machine cranked out the worse governance became. It was as if the Hillary campaign were gaming their moves against themselves rather than contra the actual foe, which is Reality. As such they were ace in their synthetic world but s**t outside of it. They were 'historic' in their own universe but losers outside of it.
The seeds for an intelligence failure of monumental proportions were sown. Right on schedule they gulled themselves over a cliff.
The the way to avoid such failures is simple -- but hard. The lesson is this. Don't try to take over the intellectual world. Don't try to create an echo chamber or Promise Machine. Don't try to homogenize the Narrative. These lessons are important to grasp if America is not to lose to some apparently weak foe. Romans knew how powerful a toxin self-deception could be, as did some Hollywood screenwriters; at least the ones who scripted the 1970 movie Patton, which ends with the title character thinking these thoughts:
“For over a thousand years Roman conquerors returning from the wars enjoyed the honor of triumph, a tumultuous parade. In the procession came trumpeters, musicians and strange animals from conquered territories, together with carts laden with treasure and captured armaments. The conquerors rode in a triumphal chariot, the dazed prisoners walking in chains before him. Sometimes his children robed in white stood with him in the chariot or rode the trace horses. A slave stood behind the conqueror holding a golden crown and whispering in his ear a warning: that all glory is fleeting.”
Don't listen just to the musicians. Heed also the slave. Do not silence the critics. All glory is fleeting.
A bit more grist for the mill.
http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/presspb2016d6_en.pdf
That's a UN report on AI and jobs. TLDR version is that the developing world is set to see whole swathes of low-skilled jobs lost to automation, and the western world won't be impacted 'as' much because most of those jobs have already been exported to developing countries. So the notion that we can bring low-skilled jobs back to America or Britain if only we had the will to do so is rather dishonest imo. The key is to ensure people have the skills for now, and the skills for the future, and it's tantamount to criminal that neither the Brexit referendum or the presidential campaign focused on this.
http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/presspb2016d6_en.pdf
That's a UN report on AI and jobs. TLDR version is that the developing world is set to see whole swathes of low-skilled jobs lost to automation, and the western world won't be impacted 'as' much because most of those jobs have already been exported to developing countries. So the notion that we can bring low-skilled jobs back to America or Britain if only we had the will to do so is rather dishonest imo. The key is to ensure people have the skills for now, and the skills for the future, and it's tantamount to criminal that neither the Brexit referendum or the presidential campaign focused on this.
Norwegian Cow
Player Valuation: £40m
WAS SAGEN SIE?!
neil999
Player Valuation: £80m
i wonder if this period will be looked back at as some kind of technological revolution, will people have to get used to it or will there be something that fills the jobs vacuum?
Whistlin' Dixie
Player Valuation: £50m
That's right, Bruce. That's why all them steel workers are being retrained to work in call-centres or stacking shelves and the like.
For all the good Tim Peake was fixing stuff on the ISS, given current government policy I expect even he's not above being forced into flogging tickets for NCP if he was to find himself replaced by a robot in future.
deipnosophist
Player Valuation: £80m
The tenor of your recent postings in this thread betray your having something of a grievance on your chest Bruce.
Given some , admittedly very few , were openly taking about revolution if Trump lost we can assume there would have been problems . I'm not though sure if you'd have seen protests quite the same , the reality is it was an incredibly divisive election problem had to be expected . You can certainly allow even encourage protest but violence is different.
Personally, I think there will be jobs created that don't exist yet, but we know and are familiar with the jobs that might be lost to automation, so the threat seems more stark, and the opportunities more ethereal. What does appear clear though is that education is going to become more and more important, and not in the usual government sense that you go to school/university and then do the same job for 40 years, but more in the sense that you're going to need to learn throughout your life and be a lot more adaptable to the changing circumstances.
I don't know the circumstances so can't comment on that, but I will say that learning isn't some kind of passive activity over which you have no input, so if you don't want to work in a call centre, learn new skills that allow you to do something else.
See my post earlier in this thread as to my grievances, and I'm not sure what you mean by tenor. If anything, my posts this morning have been very tenor'less.
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