Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[grandjoeblue]

... and less than the UK in August, September and October, and 60,000 less than us overall. This is despite their population being more than ours.

Current measures are based on current statistics? Not 4 months or a year ago?

 

[Tipp blue]

Quick update … still testing negative on LFT after 6 or 7 days being poorly now ?? I’ve booked myself a PCR test now anyway

It's not covid you have, sounds more like you've caught something off one of the sheep you've been bothering at night in the Welsh Hills.

 

[tsubaki]

Tedious from you, same nonsense about test and trace all the time. The UK Testing capacity is better than almost all of the EU. The UK PCR max capacity is stated to be 900,000 and well over 500,000 per day are done regularly.

The simple fact is turning around PCR tests for the general public within 24 hours just isn't a huge priority? People are meant to isolate after taking a PCR test until they get their results anyway.

My suggestion was that they should prioritise NHS which is obviously an easy win that would help immediately.

This makes absolutely zero sense. For a start, nowhere did I mention test and trace - you've just put that in there because that is all you think I go on about.

Secondly, if our testing capacity is that good, why does this specific problem exist? Thirdly, how on earth can you argue "the simple fact is turning round PCR tests for the general public within 24 hours just isn't a huge priority" and then say people are meant to isolate after taking one? Surely cutting the amount of time people are required to isolate is the biggest priority now?

Finally the suggestion you've come up with sort of flies in the face of everything you've said above.

 

[Kurt.]

It's not covid you have, sounds more like you've caught something off one of the sheep you've been bothering at night in the Welsh Hills.

I’ve caught worse off yer ma ??

 

[LinekersLegs]

Omicron COVID-19 variant evades immunity better than Delta, Danish study finds

COPENHAGEN: The Omicron COVID-19 variant is better at circumventing vaccinated peoples' immunity than the Delta variant, according to a Danish study published last week, helping explain why Omicron is spreading more rapidly. Since the discovery of the heavily mutated Omicron variant in...

www.channelnewsasia.com

investigating nearly 12,000 Danish households in mid-December, the scientists found that Omicron was 2.7 to 3.7 times more infectious than the Delta variant among vaccinated Danes. The study, conducted by researchers at University of Copenhagen, Statistics Denmark and Statens Serum Institut (SSI), suggests the virus is mainly spreading more rapidly because it is better at evading immunity obtained from vaccines. "Our findings confirm that the rapid spread of the Omicron (variant) primarily can be ascribed to the immune evasiveness rather than an inherent increase in the basic transmissibility," the researchers said. The study has yet to be peer-reviewed.

Seventy-eight per cent of Danes have been fully vaccinated, while nearly 48 per cent of those have received a third booster shot. More than eight out of 10 Danes have received Pfizer-BioNTech's vaccine. The study also found that booster-vaccinated people are less likely to transmit the virus, regardless of the variant, than the unvaccinated.

While more transmissible, the Omicron variant does seem to induce less serious disease, SSI's technical director, Tyra Grove Krause, told local media on Monday. "While Omicron will still be able to put pressure on our healthcare system, everything indicates that it is milder than the Delta variant," she said, adding the risk of being hospitalised with Omicron was half of that with Delta.That echoes the results of some other studies into Omicron.

Out of a total of 93 people admitted to hospital due to COVID-19 from Omicron in late December, less than five were receiving intensive care, Danish data showed.

 

[tsubaki]

Current measures are based on current statistics? Not 4 months or a year ago?

Are they? It seems more based on what the Government backbenchers will support.

 

[Tipp blue]

I’ve caught worse off yer ma ??

No doubts, right dirty yoke her you'd catch a dose walking past her in the street.

 

[grandjoeblue]

This makes absolutely zero sense. For a start, nowhere did I mention test and trace - you've just put that in there because that is all you think I go on about.

Secondly, if our testing capacity is that good, why does this specific problem exist? Thirdly, how on earth can you argue "the simple fact is turning round PCR tests for the general public within 24 hours just isn't a huge priority" and then say people are meant to isolate after taking one? Surely cutting the amount of time people are required to isolate is the biggest priority now?

Finally the suggestion you've come up with sort of flies in the face of everything you've said above.

Is prioritising 10-20,000 tests the same as processing 500,000 within 24 hours? If so, yes you're correct.

Are they? It seems more based on what the Government backbenchers will support.

The current hospitalisations and deaths are nowhere near as high as any statistician predicted. If London's now past its peak it certainly bodes well for the rest of England.

 

[tsubaki]

The current hospitalisations and deaths are nowhere near as high as any statistician predicted. If London's now past its peak it certainly bodes well for the rest of England.

Oh great, something else you've made up.

 

[grandjoeblue]

Oh great, something else you've made up.

Nope. The lowest prediction on the models was an estimated 600 deaths a day and we're now hovering around 100? I think it might move towards 200-300 but 600 is a stretch and that's the lowest estimate.

 

[LinekersLegs]

The current hospitalisations and deaths are nowhere near as high as any statistician predicted. If London's now past its peak it certainly bodes well for the rest of England.

Sorry but that is incorrect, at least for the hospitalizations part, they are higher than the LSHTM central model (both ore and post Omicron) and have been for several months


Next few days will give us important info on London as New Year filters through and schools go back.

 

[tsubaki]

Nope. The lowest prediction on the models was an estimated 600 deaths a day and we're now hovering around 100? I think it might move towards 200-300 but 600 is a stretch and that's the lowest estimate.

Yes, it is something you've made up.

The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine put out an initial report on Omicron early in December that said:

Under the most optimistic scenario (low immune escape of Omicron and high effectiveness of boosters), a wave of infection is projected which could lead to a peak of over 2,000 daily hospital admissions, with 175,000 (95% CI: 139,000–198,000) hospitalisations and 24,700 (19,500–28,700) deaths between 1st December 2021 and 30th April 2022, if no additional control measures are implemented over and above the current ‘Plan B’ policy in England.

The last daily figure for hospitalizations on the UK COVID dashboard was 1915 (from 27th December), so not far from the peak they suggested. 175000 hospitalizations in five months is around 1170 per day; the latest available 7 day average is 1400-odd (and we've been around 750-950 since the middle of July). 24700 deaths in five months is around 165 a day, the current 7-day average is 142.

Now I don't know about you, but that doesn't sound like what you have claimed the "lowest prediction on the models" was.

 

[grandjoeblue]

Yes, it is something you've made up.

The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine put out an initial report on Omicron early in December that said:



The last daily figure for hospitalizations on the UK COVID dashboard was 1915 (from 27th December), so not far from the peak they suggested. 175000 hospitalizations in five months is around 1170 per day; the latest available 7 day average is 1400-odd (and we've been around 750-950 since the middle of July). 24700 deaths in five months is around 165 a day, the current 7-day average is 142.

Now I don't know about you, but that doesn't sound like what you have claimed the "lowest prediction on the models" was.

Obviously I mean SAGE not London school of tropical medicine...

SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19, 15 December 2021

www.gov.uk

 

[grandjoeblue]

Sorry but that is incorrect, at least for the hospitalizations part, they are higher than the LSHTM central model (both ore and post Omicron) and have been for several months


Next few days will give us important info on London as New Year filters through and schools go back.

I should have put SAGE. Apologies.

 

[tsubaki]

Obviously I mean SAGE not London school of tropical medicine...

SPI-M-O: Consensus statement on COVID-19, 15 December 2021

www.gov.uk

yes, that is what "any statistician" generally means

also from that SAGE piece:

These groups suggest it is almost certain that there will be a very substantial peak of infections (much larger than occurred during January 2021). There are highly likely to be between 1,000 and 2,000 hospital admissions per day in England by the end of the year.

This is right, isn't it?