Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[BlueToff]

this, unfortunately

Doesn't change the amount of infections (if we say 'confirmed cases' is x % of total infections) and it's those total infections which would, in theory, lead to hospitalisation. Which is why hospitalisation numbers are what they need to go off for severity of it, and their focus has to be on getting the frontline staff out of isolation and to work (if they are meant to be working obviously, not advocating dragging people off their holidays)

EDIT: Anyway, how are you feeling, did you get a positive back?

 

[ToffeeTim]

this, unfortunately

There have been over 1m tests per day, I really don't think people aren't testing.

 

[tsubaki]

Doesn't change the amount of infections (if we say 'confirmed cases' is x % of total infections) and it's those total infections which would, in theory, lead to hospitalisation. Which is why hospitalisation numbers are what they need to go off for severity of it, and their focus has to be on getting the frontline staff out of isolation and to work (if they are meant to be working obviously, not advocating dragging people off their holidays)

EDIT: Anyway, how are you feeling, did you get a positive back?

tested positive, had one bad day but have been getting better since

 

[BlueToff]

tested positive, had one bad day but have been getting better since

sorry to hear that mate but glad you're on the mend, crap time for it to happen

 

[tsubaki]

There have been over 1m tests per day, I really don't think people aren't testing.

Why not? surely by now everyone should have recognized that when there are incentives not to do a test (or not to accurately report its results in the case of an LFT) that some people will try to do that.

It certainly makes more sense as an explanation for this dip than anything else we have currently.

 

[ToffeeTim]

Why not? surely by now everyone should have recognized that when there are incentives not to do a test (or not to accurately report its results in the case of an LFT) that some people will try to do that.

It certainly makes more sense as an explanation for this dip than anything else we have currently.

Not sure it's a dip though. The numbers carried out are higher than last month

 

[Neiler]

Lateral flow tests clearly work. Loads of people are testing positive on them at the moment. There's no reason why they shouldn't be included in the stats.

UK positive rates are currently around 6%.

They defo have a role mate, took them myself the last couple of days after coming home from the UK, there is a greater variance for error and false positves/negatives etc. There just is.

See thats the prob with lateral flow tests, no way the UK positivity rate is just 6%, with the spike the Uk is experiencing and number of historical cases in Ireland its 21% on PCR - we dont count antigen tests, which points to some of the warning shots around the presentation of some data, number of tests and natioanl track and trace system comparisons, maybe if we did count antigen tests the positivity % would drop hugely. It either points to a difficulty with targeting testing or stat collection, or a huge degree of error with the at home kits. Dont get me wrong they are a useful and reassuring bit of kit. I just dont think they are much use in evaluatong tracking and testing methods, no of tests or positivity %, as most of the rest world dont count them in their official testing figures, we're just told to bin them.

Just my opinion mind.

 

[NorthernBlue]

The U.K. has done nearly 10.5Million tests in the last 7 days…..

A little anecdotal but I know a few people with cold type symptoms who are not going anywhere near a test. One is a nurse.

 

[TN Toffee]

Not sure it's a dip though. The numbers carried out are higher than last month

It’s not a dip, but the case numbers the past few days certainly represent a departure from the line that looked like it was headed into the stratosphere a week ago.

 

[tsubaki]

Not sure it's a dip though. The numbers carried out are higher than last month

dip in terms of positive cases, not tests

 

[navidson]

dip in terms of positive cases, not tests

Maybe it's not as transmissible as the media have sold it to us

 

[grandjoeblue]

They defo have a role mate, took them myself the last couple of days after coming home from the UK, there is a greater variance for error and false positves etc. There just is.

See thats the prob with lateral flow tests, no way the UK positivity rate is just 6%, with the spike the Uk is experiencing and number of historical cases in Ireland its 21% on PCR - we dont count antigen tests, maybe if we did that would drop hugely. It either points to a difficulty with targeting testing or stat collection, or a huge degree of error with the at home kits. Dont get me wrong they are a useful and reassuring bit of kit. I just dont dont think they are much use evaluating testing methods, as most of the rest world dont count them in their official testing figures, we're just told to bin them.

Just my opinion mind.

PCR positive rate in England over the past 7 days is 13.1%. edit: most recent 7 days.

UKHSA data dashboard

Showing public health data across England

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

 

[tsubaki]

Maybe it's not as transmissible as the media have sold it to us

... and yet it was transmissible before, and will (presumably) be more transmissible after Christmas

 

[navidson]

... and yet it was transmissible before, and will (presumably) be more transmissible after Christmas

The South Africa case numbers have plummeted haven't they?

 

[tsubaki]

They defo have a role mate, took them myself the last couple of days after coming home from the UK, there is a greater variance for error and false positves etc. There just is.

See thats the prob with lateral flow tests, no way the UK positivity rate is just 6%, with the spike the Uk is experiencing and number of historical cases in Ireland its 21% on PCR - we dont count antigen tests, maybe if we did that would drop hugely. It either points to a difficulty with targeting testing or stat collection, or a huge degree of error with the at home kits. Dont get me wrong they are a useful and reassuring bit of kit. I just dont dont think they are much use evaluating testing methods, as most of the rest world dont count them in their official testing figures, we're just told to bin them.

Just my opinion mind.

Our testing is not targetted, that is a big part of why we repeatedly fail at this.