Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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ramacca said:
Interesting raw data information from the UK Security Health Agency surveillance report.

COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports (weeks 39 to 50)​

https://www.gov.uk › ... › Immunisation

Table 9. COVID-19 cases presenting to emergency care (within 28 days of a positive specimen) resulting in an overnight inpatient admission by vaccination status between week 46 and week 49 2021.

The majority of hospital admissions with Covid were vaccinated.

Table 10 (a). COVID-19 deaths (a) within 28 days and (b) within 60 days of positive specimen or with COVID-19 reported on death certificate, by vaccination status between week 46 and week 49 2021 Please note that corresponding rates by vaccination status can be found in Table 11.

The majority of deaths from Covid were those that had been vaccinated.

Table 10 (b). Death within 60 days of positive COVID-19 test by date of death between week 46 and week 49 2021.

The majority of deaths were those that had been vaccinated.

This doesn't mean vaccines don't work or about the efficacy of vaccines but it raw data.
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Wow. Mate, I think you have an understanding of statistics and percentages that transcends our greatest minds. You need to take this finding all the way to the top. Don't let them shut you down, we're counting on you
 
gianthogweed said:
If you look at the statistics from when omicron was 1st announced 27th of November
there was 7,774 people in hospital 921 on ventilators most likely that number is from the previous delta variant

Move forward to December 21st 7,801 admissions 859 on ventilators
There is a massive spike in infections but the numbers in hospital over that time span have not spiked in admissions
which really should be welcomed and not induce mass panic

And now we have sage modelling of hospitalisations could peak between 3,000 and 10,000 a day and deaths at between 600 and 6,000 a day
where have they come up with them insane predictions
Click to expand...
The only way to have come up with that is that they assumed that Omicron was as sever as Delta and just ran with it.
 
Seanjd said:
As far as I can tell, all of the modelling and reports produced by Ferguson’s team is available to download and read on the Imperial College website.

It’s the press that grabs the worst case scenario from a model and plasters it on front pages.
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Fair enough - I mean I’ve seen interviews with direct quotes from him (and others) however.
 
ramacca said:
Interesting raw data information from the UK Security Health Agency surveillance report.

COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports (weeks 39 to 50)​

https://www.gov.uk › ... › Immunisation

Table 9. COVID-19 cases presenting to emergency care (within 28 days of a positive specimen) resulting in an overnight inpatient admission by vaccination status between week 46 and week 49 2021.

The majority of hospital admissions with Covid were vaccinated.

Table 10 (a). COVID-19 deaths (a) within 28 days and (b) within 60 days of positive specimen or with COVID-19 reported on death certificate, by vaccination status between week 46 and week 49 2021 Please note that corresponding rates by vaccination status can be found in Table 11.

The majority of deaths from Covid were those that had been vaccinated.

Table 10 (b). Death within 60 days of positive COVID-19 test by date of death between week 46 and week 49 2021.

The majority of deaths were those that had been vaccinated.

This doesn't mean vaccines don't work or about the efficacy of vaccines but it raw data.
Click to expand...

As I'm sure you know, this is why no one pays attention to absolute numbers, it is per capita rates that matter. Below, the left is simply raw numbers, which shows more vaccinated people than unvaccinated being hospitalized. But when you take into account the population that has been vaccinated versus not with respect to hospitalizations (or deaths), the right shows the per capita hospitalization rate, which is much lower for vaccinated than unvaccinated. This is why table 10 (that you refer to) has the footnote saying:

In the context of very high vaccine coverage in the population, even with a highly effective vaccine, it is expected that a large proportion of cases, hospitalisations and deaths would occur in vaccinated individuals, simply because a larger proportion of the population are vaccinated than unvaccinated and no vaccine is 100% effective. This is especially true because vaccination has been prioritised in individuals who are more susceptible or more at risk of severe disease. Individuals in risk groups may also be more at risk of hospitalisation or death due to non-COVID-19 causes, and thus may be hospitalised or die with COVID-19 rather than because of COVID-191640120386959.webp
 
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