Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[grandjoeblue]

Have they really predicted more than 4000 daily deaths? That’s patently absurd if so. Even in the absolute depths of the pandemic last January when almost no one was vaccinated, the US surpassed 4k deaths less than ten times. To act like the UK is capable of reaching that number at this stage is madness.

On their report predictions the worst case scenario is 6000 deaths a day. Over 3x higher than we ever had with zero vaccinations. Over 88% of 60+ age groups in UK are triple vaccinated.

I think a more likely prediction is below 500 a day. Worst case maybe 800-1000.

 

[BlueToff]

Update to the cases (confirmed cases only, not total infections) in countries with known Omicron/about to enter Omicron. I've done it over the last 4 weeks to get a better idea of when each spike starts.

So, Denmark almost certainly started on the 5th, that's pretty clear. Around about the same time as Norway started theirs, but Norway's seems to have peaked and flattened off already (I don't know what restrictions they have brought in).

France is in Delta but is getting Omicron too. UK rise look sto start around the 10th/11th. And look at South Africa, they have definitely peaked in cases, for now. In all these countries, infections from Omicron will be much more widespread than reported cases.

View attachment 148973


Now, hospitalisations in the same countries, bar South Africa as can't get that data on this site. Hospitalisations clearly staying completely flat in Denmark and Norway. France's Delta hospitalisations may well have peaked which is good, though they have Omicron coming of course. The UK hospitalisations yet to spike, but as proved by the above graph, we are looking at being about 9-10 days into the Omicron spike in the UK so you would expect to see a real rise in hospitalisations, if it were to happen, from the 24-31

View attachment 148975

have to add into this, not yet got hospital data for Denmark/Norway past the 12th. So, expect an update on that in the coming days. However, after a week there was no rise so we will see where it's at after two weeks.

 

[BlueToff]

Have they really predicted more than 4000 daily deaths? That’s patently absurd if so. Even in the absolute depths of the pandemic last January when almost no one was vaccinated, the US surpassed 4k deaths less than ten times. To act like the UK is capable of reaching that number at this stage is madness.

It's absolutely ludicrous to even fathom the UK or any country would get to that.

It's like they're basing their modelling off the exponential growth never stopping, totally ignoring that COVID hits a wall of immunity like any other illness.

It really is mad. But then you have SAGE experts saying governments only care about worst-case scenarios.

I'm sure the maths works out that if there were to be 5,000 deaths per day there'd need to be 27,000,000 confirmed cases in the space of two weeks or something. The UK has had 11.5m confirmed cases (obviously much more infections) throughout the whole pandemic...

 

[Blueclouds]

No jabs at all.

Thank you, seen rumours that the new unvanncined are jabs without boosters.

 

[ToffeeTim]

Thank you, seen rumours that the new unvanncined are jabs without boosters.

The London vaccination rates are very low. Someone posted an article about it in here the other day and it really shocked me, I think it might have been @Bruce Wayne ?

 

[ToffeeTim]

It's healthy for the modelling to be challenged in a working democracy. I personally don't think their models are realistic at all or have been worked out on a probability basis. I think there numbers are pie in the sky and pretty unhelpful really. The fact that not all plausible scenarios have been modelled makes it all pretty pointless. How can we have good decision making by policy makers where not all options have been analysed with an assessment of their probability.

We don't have to just always agree with what Sage says, people are entitled to think they are wrong and question the info. Governments equally are very entitled to disagree or ignore the figures too because advisors advise and governments decide. They are the elected people so are accountable to society and the electorate ultimately. .

 

[navidson]

The London vaccination rates are very low. Someone posted an article about it in here the other day and it really shocked me, I think it might have been @Bruce Wayne ?

68% compared to 83% in the NW (At least 1 dose)

Covid vaccine: How many people are vaccinated in the UK?

A look at progress made in vaccinating the country, as more than 52 million people have received at least one dose and 38 million have had a booster or third dose.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[ToffeeTim]

68% compared to 83% in the NW (At least 1 dose)

Covid vaccine: How many people are vaccinated in the UK?

A look at progress made in vaccinating the country, as more than 52 million people have received at least one dose and 38 million have had a booster or third dose.

www.bbc.co.uk

Only 62% double jabbed - that really shocked me when i read it last week. I don't know how what can be done to help improve that number but it needs to be increased. Even a 5% increase on that figure is bound to make a tangible difference in such a big city.

 

[JLW]

But what about their human rights!!! Only joking.

Take away their jobs, make it illegal for them to enter indoor premises (except supermarkets at limited hours). The majority have done our bit and due to these individuals we're still in the same position.

I still think we would be going into lockdown anyway as the main focus is cases now rather than deaths/hospitalisations.

This is bollox!

You think were still in this mess because of unvaccinated people?
We have been averaging about 30,000 new cases daily from the beginning of July to now, that is around 5 million people. The UK has 6 million people unvaccinated.

 

[navidson]

Talk about creating a north/south divide

I'm not sure there are many things that a Northerner will hate more than an unvaccinated Southerner

 

[ToffeeTim]

This is bollox!

You think were still in this mess because of unvaccinated people?
We have been averaging about 30,000 new cases daily from the beginning of July to now, that is around 5 million people. The UK has 6 million people unvaccinated.

I don't agree with forced vaccinations at all, or any policies to exclude them from jobs etc, but I still would encourage anyone to get it. It is a fact that hospitals are dealing with a lot of unvaccinated covid patients, and that could be helped a lot by higher vaccine uptake. I can see why hospital staff feel so annoyed about this.

Case numbers aren't the issue, and shouldn't be the main focus. The vaccine will not stop all spread of the virus, although it does help. The vaccine's primary role is that it stops serious illness, so the main protection it provides is for yourself. It is proven that the vaccine is keeping people out of hoispital and helping them have less serious illness. So the vaccines are working and I think the evidence is clear.

People in this country are mainly pro vaccine, and anti lockdown. Can the government and media please represent this view properly and stop pushing lockdowns.

 

[JLW]

I don't agree with forced vaccinations at all, or any policies to exclude them from jobs etc, but I still would encourage anyone to get it. It is a fact that hospitals are dealing with a lot of unvaccinated covid patients, and that could be helped a lot by higher vaccine uptake. I can see why hospital staff feel so annoyed about this.

Case numbers aren't the issue, and shouldn't be the main focus. The vaccine will not stop all spread of the virus, although it does help. The vaccine's primary role is that it stops serious illness, so the main protection it provides is for yourself. It is proven that the vaccine is keeping people out of hoispital and helping them have less serious illness. So the vaccines are working and I think the evidence is clear.

People in this country are mainly pro vaccine, and anti lockdown. Can the government and media please represent this view properly and stop pushing lockdowns.

I agree, But these are the numbers that the government and media are using to scare the living daylights out of people hence why we are on the brink of another lockdown.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

It's healthy for the modelling to be challenged in a working democracy. I personally don't think their models are realistic at all or have been worked out on a probability basis. I think there numbers are pie in the sky and pretty unhelpful really. The fact that not all plausible scenarios have been modelled makes it all pretty pointless. How can we have good decision making by policy makers where not all options have been analysed with an assessment of their probability.

We don't have to just always agree with what Sage says, people are entitled to think they are wrong and question the info. Governments equally are very entitled to disagree or ignore the figures too because advisors advise and governments decide. They are the elected people so are accountable to society and the electorate ultimately. .

It's fine to challenge the models, but they should only be challenged from a position whereby you can reasonably challenge them. That disqualifies you and I entirely.

 

[grandjoeblue]

It's fine to challenge the models, but they should only be challenged from a position whereby you can reasonably challenge them. That disqualifies you and I entirely.

You don't have to be a statistician to know that 6000 deaths a day won't happen.

 

[ToffeeTim]

It's fine to challenge the models, but they should only be challenged from a position whereby you can reasonably challenge them. That disqualifies you and I entirely.

That logic disqualifies 99% of the population from having an opinion on 99% of issues. I don't think argument holds up at all. Where people have shown models and there is evidence in other countries that is very different, then it's right to have discussions. We also are entitled to think the worst case scenarios are pie in the sky, because the numbers which would be required to get to that point would be astronomical. You don't need to be an expert to think that is not going to happen in a highly vaccinated society.

When we know that not all options have been modelled then people are right to question the reason why. As long as people debate calmly and sensibly then that's good. People can disagree on issues and still get on, it's shouldn't be a problem.