Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Billy Dean]

It's still a tremendous downward trend, must give the medical staff a lift

Yeah, the health body announced today they won't know for sure till Weds but they're confident the curve is flattening.

 

[Brennan]

The maths on this thing is absolutely terrifying.

With "regular" flu, each infected person infects roughly 1.28 additional people. So after 10 "rounds" of infection, 1 person is "responsible" for ~1600 cases of flu. Of those 1600 cases, there's likely to be 1-2 deaths.

With coronavirus, each infected person infects ~3 additional people. The total number (after 10 rounds of transmission) is ~786,000

Or to put it another way... 15,700 people dead.


STAY THE **** AT HOME

It’s 59000 rather than 786000

 

[navidson]

I know it is mate. But like I've said, unless you were alive in, what, 1919(?) nobody has gone through a pandemic like this?

Wasn't it mad cow (late 60s?) which was the last one and even that wasn't this bad.

Asian Flu

Hong Kong flu - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Weird how many of these pandemics originate in the far east - Must just be an unfortunate coincidence I guess

 

[tsubaki]

Could there be an issue with safely staffing all the lines? Not including those who we see on the trains and platforms there is no doubt a huge amount of unseen logistical or mechanical work that needs doing everday to keep things running. Doesn't take a massive spike in absence to really affect those things.

that would be an excuse if they'd closed it all (as they have the Waterloo and City), but I'd have thought the amount of staff required to keep it at 15 tph is probably going to be the same as keeping it running at normal

 

[tsubaki]

Asian Flu

Hong Kong flu - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Weird how many of these pandemics originate in the far east - Must just be an unfortunate coincidence I guess

Its the trade centre of the entire world, and has been for (almost) all of recorded history.

 

[Catfish Blues]

It’s 59000 rather than 786000

It is on the last round, but the equivalent flu number is 12 rather than 1600.

 

[ClausThomsen]

that would be an excuse if they'd closed it all (as they have the Waterloo and City), but I'd have thought the amount of staff required to keep it at 15 tph is probably going to be the same as keeping it running at normal

I don't know. I'd guess any reduction in service such as shutting Waterloo line and the Circle line is going to free up staffing resources for other lines.

 

[xena]

Driven past a few Mcdonalds last few hours and the cars are queued down the road must be giving food away or people need a last fix

 

[Catfish Blues]

See above...

Delighted if I'm wrong, but with an R value of 3 I don't see how a simple 3 to the power of 10 (or 1.29 to the power of 10 for flu) isn't missing all the previous infections and only counting the final "generation"

Yea, you beat my edit !

Having said that, no way would the flu number be 1600. In some ways, it's academic, I havn't done the maths for the area under the curve, but the relative effect of the infectiousness of one to the other is the important thing. 59,000 / 12 is a bloody big number.

3 as a multiplier might be a bit high by the way, but, even if it's 2.5, it's one hell of an infectious [four letter word], hence the need to drastically reduce social contact to get that multiplier to 1 or less.

 

[Brennan]

See above...

Delighted if I'm wrong, but with an R value of 3 I don't see how a simple 3 to the power of 10 (or 1.29 to the power of 10 for flu) isn't missing all the previous infections and only counting the final "generation"

If you’re talking about total number of cases rather than the size of the tenth round it would be more than 59000 but a lot less than 786000. With the example you gave you end up double counting.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

The maths on this thing is absolutely terrifying.

With "regular" flu, each infected person infects roughly 1.28 additional people. So after 10 "rounds" of infection, 1 person is "responsible" for ~1600 cases of flu. Of those 1600 cases, there's likely to be 1-2 deaths.

With coronavirus, each infected person infects ~3 additional people. The total number (after 10 rounds of transmission) is ~786,000

Or to put it another way... 15,700 people dead.


STAY THE **** AT HOME

It’s 59000 rather than 786000

It is on the last round, but the equivalent flu number is 12 rather than 1600.

Yea, you beat my edit !

Having said that, no way would the flu number be 1600. In some ways, it's academic, I havn't done the maths for the area under the curve, but the relative effect of the infectiousness of one to the other is the important thing. 59,000 / 12 is a bloody big number.

3 as a multiplier might be a bit high by the way, but, even if it's 2.5, it's one hell of an infectious [four letter word], hence the need to drastically reduce social contact to get that multiplier to 1 or less.

Actually to be fair, I did make an error in how I did the original formula, but the 59k number is wrong too.

Actual final numbers are:

Flu: ~50 (1.28 to the power 10 PLUS the totals for each of the 10 "generations")
Coronavirus: 88,500 (3 to the power 10 plus the totals for each of the 10 generations)

88,500 cases is equivalent to 1,770 deaths.

Still plenty stark enough, I think...

 

[Methuselah]

Just got back from my drive. Not much traffic about apart from a couple of 'white van man' who wanted to take the opportunity to drive at 90 mph and were a bit peed off that I only wanted to do 50 mph! Did about 10 miles through the leafy lanes of Berkshire, very pleasant and got the engine warmed up.

 

[spectateur]

Asian Flu

Hong Kong flu - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Weird how many of these pandemics originate in the far east - Must just be an unfortunate coincidence I guess

1. Origin due to
Dangerous eating habits.
Bad hygiene.
2. Spread due to worldwide air travel by millions of people.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

If you’re talking about total number of cases rather than the size of the tenth round it would be more than 59000 but a lot less than 786000. With the example you gave you end up double counting.

Yeah, I looked again at the maths... see post above

Actually to be fair, I did make an error in how I did the original formula, but the 59k number is wrong too.

Actual final numbers are:

Flu: ~50 (1.28 to the power 10 PLUS the totals for each of the 10 "generations")
Coronavirus: 88,500 (3 to the power 10 plus the totals for each of the 10 generations)

88,500 cases is equivalent to 1,770 deaths.

Still plenty stark enough, I think...

 

[LinekersLegs]