Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[roydo]

I get what your saying but it doesn’t really make sense because we’re talking about Covid for which we have boosted our immune system against this particular virus 3 X more than they have.

The UK is about a million times more inter connected than SA is. As in, an outbreak in London will deffo make it to Birmingham, for example. An outbreak in Cape Town is unlikely to travel to Port Elizabeth. Well, in way less numbers anyrate. I havnt been there for about 25 years mind.

 

[BlueToff]

No way the have had only 100k cases

the other 900k cases were swiftly disposed of

 

[BlueToff]

The UK is about a million times more inter connected than SA is. As in, an outbreak in London will deffo make it to Birmingham, for example. An outbreak in Cape Town is unlikely to travel to Port Elizabeth. Well, in way less numbers anyrate. I havnt been there for about 25 years mind.

tbf mate Omicron has spread massively across the whole of SA. Our world in data says 98% of the cases in the entirety of SA are Omicron.

It's just that transmissible and was going around before it was detected. But it's really, really prevalent in the community. A 32% positivity rate (32% of all tests coming back positive I think that means)

The main differences between SA and UK really in this regard seem to be age but also the type of immunity.

SA is atm mainly natural immunity supplemented by vaccines. UK is leaning more towards the vaccines but obviously an awful lot of natural immunity too.

 

[BlueToff]

Doesn't make a difference on infectiousness and spreading but...I'm concerned that if huge numbers have it mildly, that hospitalisations and deaths are going to look really really bad, despite it being a positive test on admission and not admission for the virus. We really need that broken down clearly so proper data is used, or we'll never open up again

100%

It's been achieved in South Africa so I don't understand why it couldn't be here

 

[navidson]

Don’t like that London mechanical ventilation line

Guessing it's probably due to the ludicrously low vaccine take up rate in our capital

 

[efcfanwirral]

Don’t like that London mechanical ventilation line

The second tweet of the context is important though. The worst part of the year for it is always going to be now and into January surely? So it climbing towards September levels is always going to happen

 

[JLW]

 

[tsubaki]

Have you ever had to deal with the cause of death/register of death circus?

Only with my grandad (who passed long before this); that was from a hospital acquired infection after he’d been admitted for an operation to remove part of a lung.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I'm only a Facebook-trained medic, but in my expert opinion, it's due to shoving stuff up your nose and doing a test?

See below Bruce

You take a test, its not schrodingers virus

So how many millions of tests would people have to take every single day for every headache , every runny nose, every sore throat?

Imagine how many tests would be needed during spring and summer in hayfever season, those are some of the symptoms.

Every single cold throughout the year would require a test.

Every stress headache would require a test.

Every sore throat a test.

I can keep going on and on with this.

Billions of tests every single year that would equate to for every time a symptom showed itself.

Is that realistic?

 

[Martin Alvito]

The UK is about a million times more inter connected than SA is. As in, an outbreak in London will deffo make it to Birmingham, for example. An outbreak in Cape Town is unlikely to travel to Port Elizabeth. Well, in way less numbers anyrate. I havnt been there for about 25 years mind.

An outbreak in London will spread to every corner of the globe that lets your citizens in, or lets its citizens out and then back in, unless their population is tiny and few want to visit.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Indeed, and that’s why insisting on a with / from division is so wrong. Lots of people could be admitted with and then die from; even more admitted without and die from.

The only worthwhile figures are admitted tested positive and admitted on vents because it tells you what the impact is likely to be on that hospital.

I can remember both my nan and great nan dying. They both had pneumonia before they died. Neither died of pneumonia, in fact my nan technically was dying from June onwards of that year for 6 months, something that couldn't be prevented but she didn't tell anyone about it until an ambulance had to be called.

The fact pneumonia existed didn't change the outcome. It was on the death certificate but that isn't what she died from. It would be too easy to suggest that it was the difference in the end when whether or not it was there, it probably only would have prolonged it for a few days at most.

Point I'm making is , the existence of something that may have 'killed her' didn't either, if that makes sense? If you collated all the died with pneumonia patients in the country , you would include that but ultimately it made no difference.

So with and of in a 90% vaccinated society is a valid point whether you agree or not. 12 months ago, 18 months ago when vaccines weren't really a thing then there was no way to determine the two. Now you can, because if someone in their 90s died testing positive for covid for example, doesn't mean that's the reason. Same as a healthy unvaccinated 30 year old is a good chance that it was covid.

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

I get what your saying but it doesn’t really make sense because we’re talking about Covid for which we have boosted our immune system against this particular virus 3 X more than they have.

Maths never serves nuances of the individual very well.

My vaccine course is going to more effective than my mother's purely because my immune system is probably working better because I'm 30 years younger and I hope in good health. Factor all the people with many life long illnesses that comprise people immune systems the vaccine is not equal in all people.
Similar demographic in South Africa of elderly and those life long illnesses generally have poorer outcomes and were no longer around to face COVID, hence their average age being younger.

I half joke when I've said this virus is the great leveller but it really is.

 

[tsubaki]

See below Bruce

So how many millions of tests would people have to take every single day for every headache , every runny nose, every sore throat?

Imagine how many tests would be needed during spring and summer in hayfever season, those are some of the symptoms.

Every single cold throughout the year would require a test.

Every stress headache would require a test.

Every sore throat a test.

I can keep going on and on with this.

Billions of tests every single year that would equate to for every time a symptom showed itself.

Is that realistic?

Put it another way - if we did test people for this whenever they develop an unexpected symptom of this (so not hay fever sufferers with hay fever) we’d pick this (and similar things) up days / weeks earlier than we do now.

That’s more time for science to do it’s thing, for any containment measures to be taken, for hospitals and public health systems to get ready. There isn’t any real argument in the midst of a pandemic to not have an early warning system.

 

[tsubaki]

I can remember both my nan and great nan dying. They both had pneumonia before they died. Neither died of pneumonia, in fact my nan technically was dying from June onwards of that year for 6 months, something that couldn't be prevented but she didn't tell anyone about it until an ambulance had to be called.

The fact pneumonia existed didn't change the outcome. It was on the death certificate but that isn't what she died from. It would be too easy to suggest that it was the difference in the end when whether or not it was there, it probably only would have prolonged it for a few days at most.

Point I'm making is , the existence of something that may have 'killed her' didn't either, if that makes sense? If you collated all the died with pneumonia patients in the country , you would include that but ultimately it made no difference.

So with and of in a 90% vaccinated society is a valid point whether you agree or not. 12 months ago, 18 months ago when vaccines weren't really a thing then there was no way to determine the two. Now you can, because if someone in their 90s died testing positive for covid for example, doesn't mean that's the reason. Same as a healthy unvaccinated 30 year old is a good chance that it was covid.

… and that’s why I didn’t put “died from” in those two useful statistics I mentioned.

 

[peteblue]

Come on Pete, what we all want to know is are we winning the Testing World Cup?

I’m not sure if I prefer the old serious Bruce or the new take the piss Bruce. Anyway this French virus Omacron will probably be the same as it’s President, winds people up, causes chaos, but ultimately ends up a damp squib……