Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Ghost Rider]

Cheers.

Got that LBC on at the moment and they’re talking about them figures now. I might have misheard but the guest they had on said if the figures were right, then we would have 20 or 40 million cases in a month ?

Since we found out about the Tories breaking the rules last year we have had

1. Further restrictions to deflect attention

2. Boris saying we will do 30 million vaccinations in less than a month

3. Health sec getting all the figures wrong

Jesus this is poor communication! If they can't genuinely get the information right when they so communicate to us what hope has anyone got?

 

[joe1878]

The contrast between SA & us is mental.

 

[BlueToff]

The contrast between SA & us is mental.

Well yes and no.

There's differing factors. I'd really recommend watching the John Campbell videos over the last week as he does a very good job of explaining it.

Basically, SA data is good, but it's the infection rate that's an issue. And we're in the middle of winter, in a society that does have immunity but mainly from vaccinations (which wanes quicker than natural immunity) and we have a denser, higher population.

The government are working off best and worst-case scenarios. The 'best' worst-case scenario is 21 million people (or thereabouts) get infected with Omicron over the next four months. That could still result in 175k hospitalisations which is a hell of a lot, if they don't get the booster programme done.

 

[Neiler]

Interesting podcast with Trevor Bedford, PHD https://bedford.io/team/trevor-bedford/

Preparing for the Omicron Wave (with Trevor Bedford)

Podcast Episode · In the Bubble with Andy Slavitt · 13 December 2021 · 56min

podcasts.apple.com

Essentially his theory on why Omicron is so transmissible is, that the R0 for the original wild Covid strain was 3, Delta is 6, and they think Omicron is 4-6.
But the difference between Delta and Omicron is that Delta was running out of people to infect so Rt was around 1 (effective transmission rate).

Since Omicron can infect maybe up to approx 3x the number of people due to the suggested immune escape it’s Rt is much higher while the R0 is about the same, or even lower.

So in a totally naive population, they would act pretty much the same but in today’s circumstances, Omicron is way more transmissible.

So the theory proposed is it’s not R0 = 24. It’s just that it’s got a bigger choice of people.

He also suggests that Delta and Omicron are different enough so they could co-exist. Great…

 

[BlueToff]

Interesting podcast with Trevor Bedford, PHD https://bedford.io/team/trevor-bedford/

Preparing for the Omicron Wave (with Trevor Bedford)

Podcast Episode · In the Bubble with Andy Slavitt · 13 December 2021 · 56min

podcasts.apple.com

Essentially his theory on why Omicron is so transmissible is, that the R0 for the original wild Covid strain was 3, Delta is 6, and they think Omicron is 4-6.
But the difference between Delta and Omicron is that Delta was running out of people to infect so Rt was around 1 (effective transmission rate).

Since Omicron can infect maybe up to approx 3x the number of people due to the suggested immune escape it’s Rt is much higher while the R0 is about the same, or even lower.

So in a totally naive population, they would act pretty much the same but in today’s circumstances, Omicron is way more transmissible.

So the theory proposed is it’s not R0 = 24. It’s just that it’s got a bigger choice of people.

He also suggests that Delta and Omicron are different enough so they could co-exist. Great…

That last point, he may be right but the evidence so far is that Omicron totally dominates Delta. The data from South Africa is available but I'm sure it went from literally in the space of days being all Delta with tiny slithers of other strains to being like 85% Omicron.

The other good thing with Omicron is that it is leading to a strong immune response in infected people.

It's like it's a good thing but the issue is how quickly it comes and that it can be too much of a good thing, if you get me (not that anything to do with COVID can be described as 'good', but in relative terms, an illness which does nothing more than mild flu symptoms for 2-3 days for the vast majority of people, while simultaneously creating a very strong immune response, is at least better than the alternative!)

 

[Ghost Rider]

The contrast between SA & us is mental.

What's amazing man is that how the English constantly want to be right. South Africa keep telling us this , they keep saying it's mild , they keep giving us data to show it's less dangerous.

Yet every single day since the English refuse to go with it. Always negative, always doomsday scenarios, always predicting thousands of deaths.

As others have said, people are lapping it up as well. South Africa are a shot shy of basically screaming in our faces , especially given they know exactly what they are talking about.

Government are right though, English have to be right , it's going to kill thousands and we must lock down the entire country.

I just don't get this insistence that this country and its people refuse to listen. We are actively refusing to listen , constantly ignoring data and making our own up.

Like I said the other day, this isn't public health , it's political now. You can't honestly listen to South Africa for weeks now saying the same thing , the same two words 'mild symptoms' and keep coming back to death and hospitalisations.

Reminds me of that friends scene.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Interesting podcast with Trevor Bedford, PHD https://bedford.io/team/trevor-bedford/

Preparing for the Omicron Wave (with Trevor Bedford)

Podcast Episode · In the Bubble with Andy Slavitt · 13 December 2021 · 56min

podcasts.apple.com

Essentially his theory on why Omicron is so transmissible is, that the R0 for the original wild Covid strain was 3, Delta is 6, and they think Omicron is 4-6.
But the difference between Delta and Omicron is that Delta was running out of people to infect so Rt was around 1 (effective transmission rate).

Since Omicron can infect maybe up to approx 3x the number of people due to the suggested immune escape it’s Rt is much higher while the R0 is about the same, or even lower.

So in a totally naive population, they would act pretty much the same but in today’s circumstances, Omicron is way more transmissible.

So the theory proposed is it’s not R0 = 24. It’s just that it’s got a bigger choice of people.

He also suggests that Delta and Omicron are different enough so they could co-exist. Great…

He expands on that latter bit in this thread.


For those that aren’t familiar with him Trevor was part of the group that first determined the Covid was in the US through their flu surveillance program in Seattle. I’ve found him one of the clearest explainers of how the virus mutates and grows around the the world and very even keeled in terms of the optimism/pessimism of his forcasts.

 

[BlueToff]

@ForeverBlue92 last part of this interview here mate, touches on that issue that another poster on here suggested you might have.

Did you get your arm fixed?

Seems an absolutely mental decision by the WHO, doesn't it?

 

[Neiler]

There is a lot we just don’t know mate @BlueToff , we’re in hypothesis mode in terms of data, so I still wouldn’t be coming to any definite conclusions.

However I posted something last week on the different lineages of the variants, Omicron is from Alpha Lineage, Delta from Beta, whike they share some similarities they also share some significant differences in their make up:



Trevor goes into his reasoning in the thread, again it’s his hypothesis and showing his logic and work for his hypothesis:

Again it’s all just data, research and hypothesis and he does cite multiple possible outcomes, I’d be reluctuent to make judgements, but it’s fascinating thought provoking stuff.

 

[Neiler]

He expands on that latter bit in this thread.


For those that aren’t familiar with him Trevor was part of the group that first determined the Covid was in the US through their flu surveillance program in Seattle. I’ve found him one of the clearest explainers of how the virus mutates and grows around the the world and very even keeled in terms of the optimism/pessimism of his forcasts.

Ha ha I just posted the exact same thing! lol

 

[BlueToff]

What's amazing man is that how the English constantly want to be right. South Africa keep telling us this , they keep saying it's mild , they keep giving us data to show it's less dangerous.

Yet every single day since the English refuse to go with it. Always negative, always doomsday scenarios, always predicting thousands of deaths.

As others have said, people are lapping it up as well. South Africa are a shot shy of basically screaming in our faces , especially given they know exactly what they are talking about.

Government are right though, English have to be right , it's going to kill thousands and we must lock down the entire country.

I just don't get this insistence that this country and its people refuse to listen. We are actively refusing to listen , constantly ignoring data and making our own up.

Like I said the other day, this isn't public health , it's political now. You can't honestly listen to South Africa for weeks now saying the same thing , the same two words 'mild symptoms' and keep coming back to death and hospitalisations.

Reminds me of that friends scene.

View attachment 148441

ffs mate, please, it's not about that

The data is there and yes it cannot be ignored, okay. 100% correct.

The issue is that we're in the middle of winter, there's already strain on the NHS as there always is at this time of year anyway, plus we have a lot of COVID (Delta) around.

Omicron is mild, we can probably safely say that, for most people. However, it's so infectious that it is going to be infecting A LOT of people. A lot more than Delta did, and the vaccines don't stop it infecting you. However, they do stop serious illness and a 3rd shot renders Omicron pretty much asymptomatic in 75% of people.

So, that's why they're pushing the booster out. Because it's an extra line of protection. Half of the country could easily get this variant mate. 1% of 30,000,000 people is a hell of a lot of people in hospital in a short amount of time.

So posting memes like that just kind of misses the point. And I'm happy to bang on about the data from SA being good. But it's not about ignoring it. It's about appreciating that the circumstances are different and that you can't let Omicron rip through the population without giving people extra protection one way or the other. The only issue I have with it is they should say that as well as the vaccine people need to be doing stuff like keeping themselves healthy and in the meantime they need to be working on medicines to treat COVID

 

[BlueToff]

I can't believe that aspirating is not a thing with these procedures. I'm not medically trained - clearly - so I had no idea that's what happened. Why would the WHO ever recommend that not to be a good thing? And why have no countries but Denmark ignored their advice?

I might ask the nurse to aspirate when I go for my booster. I'm not being funny, but cardiac inflammation definitely causes heart rate spikes etc, and I get those regularly since having COVID/then my second jab. I don't know if it's either one or both, but I can't believe there's such a simple thing to do to potentially cut this risk out of the vaccinations.

 

[Ghost Rider]

ffs mate, please, it's not about that

The data is there and yes it cannot be ignored, okay. 100% correct.

The issue is that we're in the middle of winter, there's already strain on the NHS as there always is at this time of year anyway, plus we have a lot of COVID (Delta) around.

Omicron is mild, we can probably safely say that, for most people. However, it's so infectious that it is going to be infecting A LOT of people. A lot more than Delta did, and the vaccines don't stop it infecting you. However, they do stop serious illness and a 3rd shot renders Omicron pretty much asymptomatic in 75% of people.

So, that's why they're pushing the booster out. Because it's an extra line of protection. Half of the country could easily get this variant mate. 1% of 30,000,000 people is a hell of a lot of people in hospital in a short amount of time.

So posting memes like that just kind of misses the point. And I'm happy to bang on about the data from SA being good. But it's not about ignoring it. It's about appreciating that the circumstances are different and that you can't let Omicron rip through the population without giving people extra protection one way or the other. The only issue I have with it is they should say that as well as the vaccine people need to be doing stuff like keeping themselves healthy and in the meantime they need to be working on medicines to treat COVID

But if you know from a base data that the symptoms are milder, it's causing less hospitalisation , less deaths. Then why can't you run with that without just going all in on the other side of covid again? There is taking precautions and then there is what the UK is doing, week by week getting closer to a point that is just not needed.

Hell there is data out there that shows the decreasing element of the variant in levels of antibodies , sure someone posted that here.

What I'm trying to say is we are acting the completely opposite way to South Africa with their actual brilliant medical and scientific brains in an almost deniability way, except we are denying the idea that it may be milder in favour of taking action as if it's worse.

What's the worst case scenario honestly? We lock down or we replace one variant with a less harmful one. I know you can say deaths but we already know that vaccinations protect against it, again South Africa have told us this. The sheet amount of vaccines and natural antibodies in this population so far has to count for something , all of this is acting like it doesn't when truth be told even 2 vaccinations is protection.

We just aren't getting told that because the government want us to get number 3, then number 4 in April time , and then number 5 next winter and so on. The vaccine works , the more you have the better you are protected but that doesn't mean 30 million double jabbed are suddenly without protection and it certainly doesn't mean we will see a significant increase in deaths either. Otherwise the vaccine was designed to fail and we both know that is not true.

 

[Jebus_lives]

But if you know from a base data that the symptoms are milder, it's causing less hospitalisation , less deaths. Then why can't you run with that without just going all in on the other side of covid again? There is taking precautions and then there is what the UK is doing, week by week getting closer to a point that is just not needed.

Hell there is data out there that shows the decreasing element of the variant in levels of antibodies , sure someone posted that here.

What I'm trying to say is we are acting the completely opposite way to South Africa with their actual brilliant medical and scientific brains in an almost deniability way, except we are denying the idea that it may be milder in favour of taking action as if it's worse.

What's the worst case scenario honestly? We lock down or we replace one variant with a less harmful one. I know you can say deaths but we already know that vaccinations protect against it, again South Africa have told us this. The sheet amount of vaccines and natural antibodies in this population so far has to count for something , all of this is acting like it doesn't when truth be told even 2 vaccinations is protection.

We just aren't getting told that because the government want us to get number 3, then number 4 in April time , and then number 5 next winter and so on. The vaccine works , the more you have the better you are protected but that doesn't mean 30 million double jabbed are suddenly without protection and it certainly doesn't mean we will see a significant increase in deaths either. Otherwise the vaccine was designed to fail and we both know that is not true.

The only thing anyone from the UKHSA have said so far is that we don't have enough data to make definitive judgements about Omicron being milder, for a variety of reasons - vaccination status, age, health. There is still the necessity to use UK data against the Omicron variant to assess the negative impact against non vacc, single vacc, double vacc and booster.

Even if the symptoms are 'milder', there is still a real possibility that severe infection of 5% of the population could seriously disrupt the UK.

But, most importantly, there most certainly has not been enough time to follow the cycle of infection > hospitalisation > death in any meaningful way. Until that is known, caution is the best approach.

 

[WA Toffee]

The West Australian premier announced yesterday that we are opening our borders on Feb 5th, both nationally and internationally, which is when he expects 90% of the population to be doubled vaxxed.

We haven't had a single case of covid in about 6 months, will be interesting to see how we manage it when it does come in.