Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[grandjoeblue]

Just some common sense and reality that vaccination, it was only part of the answer. transmission was always likely to continue and being vulnerable to COVID was still a very dangerous risk. Mask wearing and social distancing needed to contine in England. And some interventions in educational establishments would have helped. Actually wanting to prevent death apparently is a difficult concept.

You've mentioned Scotland and Wales have masks still in place. Have you checked their recent case numbers?

 

[GrandOldTeam]

I don't think deaths will go anywhere near as high. The current average is about 190 per day.

What was it last year?

As I showed yesterday mate 2020 vs 2021

3 deaths on Monday 7th September 2020
209 deaths on Tuesday 7th September 2021

In January 2021 the worst 7 day average was around 1230.

I think people are forgetting August/September last year and how rapid the cases/deaths took hold from October onwards.

If that happens again this year, and given we had closures/social distancing last year which we wont have this year.... I wouldn't be at all surprised.

Thats 6x as high as now.

Go and count the deaths in September 2021 and compare it to September last year.

Due to the vaccinations to get 1230 average you'd need above 200,000 cases a day which surely can't happen.

Hope so mate but as I've said, 80% vaccinated and we're seeing 209 deaths reported yesterday in the UK. They've just said 191 again today. That's significantly higher than September last year. Why is that? And whatever the reason, why would it suggest deaths wont get worse this winter?

 

[grandjoeblue]

What was it last year?

As I showed yesterday mate 2020 vs 2021

3 deaths on Monday 7th September 2020
209 deaths on Tuesday 7th September 2021



I think people are forgetting August/September last year and how rapid the cases/deaths took hold from October onwards.

If that happens again this year, and given we had closures/social distancing last year which we wont have this year.... I wouldn't be at all surprised.




Go and count the deaths in September 2021 and compare it to September last year.



Hope so mate but as I've said, 80% vaccinated and we're seeing 209 deaths reported yesterday in the UK. They've just said 191 again today. That's significantly higher than September last year. Why is that? And whatever the reason, why would it suggest deaths wont get worse this winter?

I think its a lot higher than last September because the countries completely open already and has been for a while. Last year was a very different situation with very low months and then massive peaks when they tried to reopen. I think this year the cases numbers and deaths will rise over the next 4 weeks or so but slower (similar to the last 6 weeks).

Nobody can say for sure that it won't go really bad but all the information available for the vaccine does seem to suggest that its working very effectively.

Only roughly 2% of the UK test for covid each day and around 40,000 are testing positive. A decent number of the other 98% will be positive without knowing it. Eventually it surely will get to the point where a lot have immunity from vaccination/covid.

 

[GrandOldTeam]

I think its a lot higher than last September because the countries completely open already and has been for a while. Last year was a very different situation with very low months and then massive peaks when they tried to reopen. I think this year the cases numbers and deaths will rise over the next 4 weeks or so but slower (similar to the last 6 weeks).

Nobody can say for sure that it won't go really bad but all the information available for the vaccine does seem to suggest that its working very effectively.

Only roughly 2% of the UK test for covid each day and around 40,000 are testing positive. A decent number of the other 98% will be positive without knowing it. Eventually it surely will get to the point where a lot have immunity from vaccination/covid.

Never would have dreamt we'd be seeing 200+ UK deaths in a day in September with 80% of the adult population double vaccinated but then admittedly, what do I know?!

Hopefully I'm well wrong and we don't see a repeat of last winter.

 

[grandjoeblue]

Never would have dreamt we'd be seeing 200+ UK deaths in a day in September with 80% of the adult population double vaccinated but then admittedly, what do I know?!

Hopefully I'm well wrong and we don't see a repeat of last winter.

Agree that the numbers aren't great but we're seeing the deaths spread out over time rather than massive peaks.

 

[Mrk]

What was it last year?

As I showed yesterday mate 2020 vs 2021

3 deaths on Monday 7th September 2020
209 deaths on Tuesday 7th September 2021

While this is true, just picking out dates doesn't really tell you a lot - for example:

217 deaths on 10th May 2020
4 deaths on 10th May 2021

The waves don't occur at the same time each year, so it's better to compare the data based on how long we are into a wave.

 

[efcfanwirral]

Just some common sense and reality that vaccination, it was only part of the answer. transmission was always likely to continue and being vulnerable to COVID was still a very dangerous risk. Mask wearing and social distancing needed to contine in England. And some interventions in educational establishments would have helped. Actually wanting to prevent death apparently is a difficult concept.

Yeah as much as I love the music industry and hospitality, it's not really viable in a covid world, which we now live in probably forever

Not all businesses will survive. Will be interesting to see if they keep furlough this winter or just let market forces do their thing

 

[Deleted member 48881]

As a virologist I’m shocked my work has been hijacked by anti-vaxxers | David LV Bauer

A news interview I did was re-edited and misquoted by online conspiracy theorists. My advice is: get the vaccine, says David LV Bauer of the Francis Crick Institute

www.theguardian.com

 

[Deckard2049]

Yeah as much as I love the music industry and hospitality, it's not really viable in a covid world, which we now live in probably forever

Not all businesses will survive. Will be interesting to see if they keep furlough this winter or just let market forces do their thing

I’m sorry but this is just bonkers. Yes, Covid will be with us forever. Writing off entire industries however is absolute nonsense and the kind of talk I would expect from lockdown obsessives.

 

[efcfanwirral]

I’m sorry but this is just bonkers. Yes, Covid will be with us forever. Writing off entire industries however is absolute nonsense and the kind of talk I would expect from lockdown obsessives.

I'm the complete opposite of a lockdow obsessive (probably too opposite really) - but if we impose restrictions this winter, why wouldn't that indicate the same for future winters?

 

[Deckard2049]

I'm the complete opposite of a lockdow obsessive (probably too opposite really) - but if we impose restrictions this winter, why wouldn't that indicate the same for future winters?

The point is to say certain industries are not “viable” is just plain wrong. Our vaccine programme has been underway for nearly a year. The vaccines will improve, people will get natural immunity, viable treatments should emerge, and people will unfortunately continue to die just hopefully not in the numbers we’ve seen. And at some point I’d like to believe the British public would grow a spine and not accept lockdowns and restrictions to be the go to solution to the Covid problem. But of course as we’ve seen this country runs on the idea that everyone must do whatever is necessary to ensure that the lives of the conservative voter base are protected and kept as comfortable as possible.

 

[CharliePotato]

I’m sorry but this is just bonkers. Yes, Covid will be with us forever. Writing off entire industries however is absolute nonsense and the kind of talk I would expect from lockdown obsessives.

Exactly mate, absolutely ridiculous shout that. A covid world, get real.

 

[jonnyboy316]

Never would have dreamt we'd be seeing 200+ UK deaths in a day in September with 80% of the adult population double vaccinated but then admittedly, what do I know?!

Hopefully I'm well wrong and we don't see a repeat of last winter.

I recall the government saying they expected deaths to be between 100-200 by the end of August when we fully opened up. Wonder how much higher it will go.

 

[summerisle]

 

[toffee82]

I'm the complete opposite of a lockdow obsessive (probably too opposite really) - but if we impose restrictions this winter, why wouldn't that indicate the same for future winters?

Covid become endemic.

Lots of residual herd immunity from one winter to the next even with lower vaccination uptake.

Essentially like flu (a bad flu year sees 25,000+ deaths).