I believe one of the major worries for the winter is from other infections that we largely avoided due to the previous lockdowns - weakening our immune response.
Alongside COVID-19 there remain other serious threats that stretch our health and social care services every year. Right now, to ensure we plan for these as well as for the continuing pandemic, our attention is on autumn and winter, ensuring
publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk
That said there are reports that the gov is planning firebreak lockdowns to deal with both the above and Covid spikes, as per the below.
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/c...plans-firebreak-lockdowns-over-winter-1140135
Outside of an escape mutation, it is most likely that the young (not vaccinated or just a single dose), and those not vaccinated by choice or because of health issues will be most affected. The Chamber of Business is lobbying the gov to put a strategy in place in readiness for this scenario.
Speaking to BBC Breakfast this morning, Shevaun Haviland called on government to bring forward a Covid strategy for the coming months, as well as contingency planning for the possibility of a variant evading the vaccine.She said: “What we’d really like to see is a contingency plan in place that...
www.britishchambers.org.uk
Fortunately everybody will have had the offer to have both jabs by the end of September. Obviously those that still need to get their second (my sister among them) will have to wait a bit longer. I'd have had my second already if not for having COVID and having to push it back - due for it on Sept 1st.
I still think the above is also a huge reason as to why there's definitely been a push for young people to get out and about and, while the main thing is vaccination, a big part of that has been well, they'll also probably catch COVID.
I know, it sounds ridiculous, but you're going to have a huge chunk of the younger population heading into winter with the following:
- 2 doses
- 1 dose, 2nd to come
- both doses and 'natural immunity' from having had COVID (that'll be me)
- 1 dose, and natural immunity, 2nd dose to come
Now, it's not to say they won't get it again, but we know that a combination of the above basically offer a lot of protection. Young people getting COVID through the summer (some getting ill, some not) will mean that with vaccines on top they are much less likely to get it in the winter or get ill from it.
I look at my immediate friends here (all aged 24-26)
A sample of 17, I think 13 have now been double jabbed. Two more will be this week and I will be the last one because of having to push my second date back.
A quick count, there's going to be 9 of us who have had COVID and in total 5 of us caught it in the same 3-week period in July. We all had differing symptoms to differing severity, but none of us came close to needing hospital and, relatively speaking, were back to normal within a few days. In fact with all of us, the range of testing positive was 5 days and the actual symptoms lasted between 3 and 5 days for each of us.
It's not to say it's not serious, but that's just one friend group that I'm thinking of off the top of my head numbers wise. Expand that out across the younger population and it paints a pretty thorough picture.