I'm not surprised. What people have missed is a few things.
1. We're testing even more than the second wave but have a lower positivity rate. Which means the second wave was actually in all likelihood
much bigger than this one but we didn't test as assiduously to detect all cases. So the 'spike' has been similar to the second wave, and if you look at the peak for the second wave it was declining at pretty much exactly the same point.
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... so any belief/modelling that suggested worse than what we're having seemed off for me, due to reason number two as well which is...
2. All previous pandemics (to my knowledge) have played out this way - it's why they're called waves after all. You have a strong first and second wave, a slightly less strong third and we'll have an 'exit' wave too around Spring.
By the by, at exactly the same point in the second wave (just on the down slope, around 15 January), this was the hospitalisations.
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... so we're now at the point where we are seeing peak hospitalisations, which is the little tiny incline to the far right, before a commensurate steep decline.
The TLDR version - the worst of this is, clearly, over. Hospitalisations/deaths will rise moderately for the next 1-2 weeks, around 20% at most week on week, but that's it, and will then be essentially finished by around 12th August approx.