Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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Hospital figures - 9 deaths were announced today, nothing to compare from yesterday but it’s down 6 on last Monday. 5 deaths were in English hospitals, again nothing to compare from yesterday but it’s down 6 on last week. The 7 day rolling average falls to 53.43

All settings - for the 28 day cut off, 14 deaths were announced today, down 14 on yesterday and down 5 on last Monday. The 7 day rolling average falls to 63.57

For the 60 day cut off, 14 deaths were announced today, down 23 on yesterday and down 9 on last Monday. The 7 day rolling average falls to 71.29
 
Lowest daily deaths for a month

Fingers crossed

Doesn't make sense that though. Surely it should still be going up. Cases were rising up until a few days ago.

You'd expect deaths to be at a peak still for another couple of weeks? Based on 3 weeks or so from infection to death.
 
Doesn't make sense that though. Surely it should still be going up. Cases were rising up until a few days ago.

You'd expect deaths to be at a peak still for another couple of weeks? Based on 3 weeks or so from infection to death.

Just an observation, but the age groups that were experiencing the case rises have been working into double dose range for a few weeks now. So the benefit of slower/less transmission is now filtering into that profile?

It happened in Scotland a week before England, and they had far less Euro events as well.

Dunno. But it makes some weird sense I guess.
 
Doesn't make sense that though. Surely it should still be going up. Cases were rising up until a few days ago.

You'd expect deaths to be at a peak still for another couple of weeks? Based on 3 weeks or so from infection to death.
Cases peaked 17th July, since then they have been reducing.

Forget everything you know, Delta burns hard and fast, its not Beta.
 
Just an observation, but the age groups that were experiencing the case rises have been working into double dose range for a few weeks now. So the benefit of slower/less transmission is now filtering into that profile?

It happened in Scotland a week before England, and they had far less Euro events as well.

Dunno. But it makes some weird sense I guess.

Maybe so. I'm just used to it being cases then hospitalisations then deaths. Normally it rises and drops pretty consistently. It would be great if deaths started dropping again already.
 
Maybe so. I'm just used to it being cases then hospitalisations then deaths. Normally it rises and drops pretty consistently. It would be great if deaths started dropping again already.

*touching wood*

This wave hasnt really delivered a significant death tally has it? Compared to pre vax days.
 
Lowest daily deaths for a month

Fingers crossed

I'm not surprised. What people have missed is a few things.

1. We're testing even more than the second wave but have a lower positivity rate. Which means the second wave was actually in all likelihood much bigger than this one but we didn't test as assiduously to detect all cases. So the 'spike' has been similar to the second wave, and if you look at the peak for the second wave it was declining at pretty much exactly the same point.

1627320290490.png

... so any belief/modelling that suggested worse than what we're having seemed off for me, due to reason number two as well which is...

2. All previous pandemics (to my knowledge) have played out this way - it's why they're called waves after all. You have a strong first and second wave, a slightly less strong third and we'll have an 'exit' wave too around Spring.

By the by, at exactly the same point in the second wave (just on the down slope, around 15 January), this was the hospitalisations.

1627320399488.png

... so we're now at the point where we are seeing peak hospitalisations, which is the little tiny incline to the far right, before a commensurate steep decline.

The TLDR version - the worst of this is, clearly, over. Hospitalisations/deaths will rise moderately for the next 1-2 weeks, around 20% at most week on week, but that's it, and will then be essentially finished by around 12th August approx.
 
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