Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Harryflashman]

I’ve generally avoided this thread lately so apologies if it’s come up . Given we’re seeing the delta variant spreading quite rapidly even amongst the double jabbed when you look at the likes of Australia what are thoughts generally on where they will find themselves when they do eventually look to open up ? I can’t help but think unless they maintain covid hotels longterm , which I think is under consideration, it’ll just spread amongst their populace once they do try to normalise internationally in a similar manner to us after our first lockdown.

im probably completely wrong obviously.

 

[Tubey]

I’ve generally avoided this thread lately so apologies if it’s come up . Given we’re seeing the delta variant spreading quite rapidly even amongst the double jabbed when you look at the likes of Australia what are thoughts generally on where they will find themselves when they do eventually look to open up ? I can’t help but think unless they maintain covid hotels longterm , which I think is under consideration, it’ll just spread amongst their populace once they do try to normalise internationally in a similar manner to us after our first lockdown.

im probably completely wrong obviously.

Yep, the only way Australia/NZ come out of this looking fantastic is if their vaccination program accelerates and covers their population before a giant wave hits them.

And it will hit them. Once the world opens up, even if COVID exists at low levels elsewhere (and it will), unvaccinated places will be breeding grounds for it. It will never be gone, anywhere.

So Aus/NZ haven't beat COVID, they've merely delayed it, and they deserve congratulations for it... If they bring a vaccination program in properly as well that is.

 

[Barnfred 55]

Looks like that 50k+ figure from a week ago was a one off. The infection rate seems to have plateaued in the 30ks and now seems to be dropping. Just in time really as we haven't yet seen the effects of opening up the economy a week ago which should start to come through next week.

Personally I think we'll see a small rise over the next couple of weeks, but I don't think we'll get anywhere close to the 100k per day that SAGE had been predicting. It would be great to have some detail on what percentage of the recent (last month's say), infections, hospitalisations and deaths have been amongst the unvaccinated and those who have only had their first jab.

I think urgent consideration should now be given to vaccinating the older schoolchildren, the 14-17 year olds, who I expect to be the biggest driver of infections going forward. It would be good if there was a programme in place for when they return to school.

 

[Harryflashman]

Yep, the only way Australia/NZ come out of this looking fantastic is if their vaccination program accelerates and covers their population before a giant wave hits them.

And it will hit them. Once the world opens up, even if COVID exists at low levels elsewhere (and it will), unvaccinated places will be breeding grounds for it. It will never be gone, anywhere.

So Aus/NZ haven't beat COVID, they've merely delayed it, and they deserve congratulations for it... If they bring a vaccination program in properly as well that is.

Thanks for that , even with the vaccination programme, which seems dawdling, and I appreciate we wouldn’t then be talking deaths which is hugely important won’t they see massive covid infections through the general population? I currently know a number of double jabbed people here who are infected and Ill.

obviously if Australia have prevented large scale death I see that’s a huge success but if they open up until covid has effectively ‘burnt itself out ‘ in the wider world which feels a long time off or rips its way through them establishing some kind of herd immunity then it’s going to be an issue right?

 

[LinekersLegs]

Yep, the only way Australia/NZ come out of this looking fantastic is if their vaccination program accelerates and covers their population before a giant wave hits them.

And it will hit them. Once the world opens up, even if COVID exists at low levels elsewhere (and it will), unvaccinated places will be breeding grounds for it. It will never be gone, anywhere.

So Aus/NZ haven't beat COVID, they've merely delayed it, and they deserve congratulations for it... If they bring a vaccination program in properly as well that is.

Even if they are only average on the vaccine rollout, delaying Covid has been a huge benefit. Along with now having access to vaccines we know so much more than we did about transmission and effective treatments plus they will have been able to gear up medical supplies for any wave rather.

Not to mention if you were told you were going to die today or in 18 months there are few people who wouldn’t give quite a lot for that extra time.

 

[Tubey]

Even if they are only average on the vaccine rollout, delaying Covid has been a huge benefit. Along with now having access to vaccines we know so much more than we did about transmission and effective treatments plus they will have been able to gear up medical supplies for any wave rather.

Not to mention if you were told you were going to die today or in 18 months there are few people who wouldn’t give quite a lot for that extra time.

'course, but the delay is only really beneficial if they use the time to combat it. Otherwise you've just bought time and not done anything with it.

Aus/NZ also have a benefit as to where they're situated and how international travel works of course.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Looks like that 50k+ figure from a week ago was a one off. The infection rate seems to have plateaued in the 30ks and now seems to be dropping. Just in time really as we haven't yet seen the effects of opening up the economy a week ago which should start to come through next week.

Personally I think we'll see a small rise over the next couple of weeks, but I don't think we'll get anywhere close to the 100k per day that SAGE had been predicting. It would be great to have some detail on what percentage of the recent (last month's say), infections, hospitalisations and deaths have been amongst the unvaccinated and those who have only had their first jab.

I think urgent consideration should now be given to vaccinating the older schoolchildren, the 14-17 year olds, who I expect to be the biggest driver of infections going forward. It would be good if there was a programme in place for when they return to school.

This the data you were looking for? Links to the papers with lots more bits and pieces are at the top of the thread

 

[Paris]

Twitter is just a place for sexually frustrated folk to release tension these days.

Is that why you use it so often?

(sorry, couldn’t resist lol )

 

[LinekersLegs]

'course, but the delay is only really beneficial if they use the time to combat it. Otherwise you've just bought time and not done anything with it.

Aus/NZ also have a benefit as to where they're situated and how international travel works of course.

Merely knowing things like widely available steroids and non pharmaceutical methods like proning are effective and when ventilation is useful will bring down their fatality rate compared to those countries who got their waves last year.

I think we forget how much trial and error had to go on medically in those early days.

 

[ForeverBlue92]

Is that why you use it so often?

(sorry, couldn’t resist lol )

Im anything but lad got a left arm like popeye me lol

 

[Deleted member 48881]

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

We’ll disagree mate, it made me genuinely angry that a health secretary could be so dismissive of people who have been careful and those who still need to be. Healthy or not, that is what I felt/feel and I’d consider myself generally fairly even tempered.

Worryingly he meant to use "cower" and it's the same mindset that led us into banking crisis of 2008, which is no coincidence, as our dear health secretary was riding high in the banking world at that point. He left his professional banking career in 2009 and embarked on political one, history hey.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

'course, but the delay is only really beneficial if they use the time to combat it. Otherwise you've just bought time and not done anything with it.

Aus/NZ also have a benefit as to where they're situated and how international travel works of course.

Problem is with Australia is that they originally ordered shed loads of AZ vaccine and not too many Pfizer. Given the health scare with AZ and young people they soon realised they did not have enough Pfizer vaccines. So they had to impose strict travel, quarantine, lockdowns to control the spread.

To this end they’ve done a fine job helped enormously by their geographical location.

The growing availability of Pfizer and other alternatives for their younger population should see them quickly ramp up and complete their vax program.

 

[Barnfred 55]

This the data you were looking for? Links to the papers with lots more bits and pieces are at the top of the thread

Thanks Legs. That's brilliant.

I'll have a good look later but broadly, if you take young children out of the equation, roughly 30% of the population are accounting for 86% of the infections. If that isn't proof that being fully vaccinated significantly reduces the risk of being infected, I don't know what is.

 

[BlueStevie35]

Saturday’s figures

There were no hospital figures reported on Saturday, the previous week’s late revealed total was 34

All settings - for the 28 day cut off, 86 deaths were announced on Saturday, up 22 on Friday and up 45 on last Saturday. The 7 day rolling average rose to 63.86

For the 60 day cut off, 89 deaths were announced on Saturday, up 17 on Friday and up 39 on last Saturday. The 7 day rolling average rises to 71.29

For today

No hospital figures reported today, last Sunday’s late revealed total was 19

All settings - for the 28 day cut off, 28 deaths were announced today, down 58 on yesterday and up 3 on last Sunday. The 7 day rolling average rises to 64.29

For the 60 day cut off, 37 deaths were announced today, down 52 on yesterday and up 9 on last Sunday. The 7 day rolling average rises to 72.57