Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[LinekersLegs]

 

[Mrk]

Aging population was always the stipulated explanation for the high death rate previously, with health care system the #2.

I haven't been looking at the numbers enough to say anything substantive about this wave.

Yep, both big factors too - as well as population density and obesity rate.

Basically, everything is a factor and nobody has a 'kin clue what's going on.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Yep, both big factors too - as well as population density and obesity rate.

Basically, everything is a factor and nobody has a 'kin clue what's going on.

I would argue that this is true for much of research using a survival or event history model, since I understand the math under the hood.

If it's a really strong effect, you'll find it no matter how bad the design is, but the stuff at the margins is easy to misattribute.

 

[Deleted member 48881]

Italy today, +1,534 cases 20 deaths. They have more deaths than UK, even though UK averages 35K cases these days. Weird weird stuff.

wow, didn't see that coming

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[Brennan]

But we're just going to let it rip through our communities.

 

[ForeverBlue92]

With viruses that you can catch more than once like Covid is it possible to have herd immunity?

 

[roydo]

With viruses that you can catch more than once like Covid is it possible to have herd immunity?

Not sure.

I think some think herd immunity means it cant spread, and they may be correct. My understanding, and I might be wrong, is that is means enough of the population have an immune system strong and developed enough to minimise serious issues for the vast majority.

Think Flu.

 

[The binman chronicles]

Hope they all recover. If children < 11 can get seriously ill from a variant of this then it's going to be a long old road to getting back to normal. It's what I most feared. I wonder what age group are these kids in.

 

[ForeverBlue92]

When you watch David Attenborough's documentaries you quickly realise humans are the biggest virus on this planet

 

[BlueToff]

When you watch David Attenborough's documentaries you quickly realise humans are the biggest virus on this planet

Nature has a way of sorting that out. This was one of them.

 

[BlueToff]

But we're just going to let it rip through our communities.

It's already here.

Anyone with a cold has it.

 

[ForeverBlue92]

Nature has a way of sorting that out. This was one of them.

Australian bush fires
Covid

Governments need to WAKE UP after 2020 or we're knackered.

 

[Martin Alvito]

With viruses that you can catch more than once like Covid is it possible to have herd immunity?

The threshold required to reach herd immunity by way of people being protected from the virus through vaccination or other antibodies is calculated as 1-1/R0, where R0 is infectivity. With an R0 of 7, call Delta requiring roughly 85% of the population to have antibodies that fight the disease off.

If you can catch it more than once, that just means that fewer people are protected by way of antibodies via catching it.

You can work with 1-1/Rt instead, where Rt essentially picks up just how draconian you want to be about preventive measures against spread. If you want to make everyone work remotely, never go outside and subsist from delivered groceries and meals, the herd immunity threshold gets very low.

So, the answer is yes, and that being able to catch it more than once is only a small part of the picture.

 

[LinekersLegs]