Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[ToffeeTim]

As others have said, vaccinated with one dose is not particularly helpful against the current dominant variant.

Apparently we would be able to second dose another 10 million people in the four weeks from June 21st. That is massive in terms of keeping the spread down and hospitalisations low.

I would much rather a four week delay that helps to lower the growth curve sufficiently to avoid lockdowns in the autumn, rather than get back to normal on the 21st and see us back in heavy restrictions in a few months. Those extra second doses really could make all the difference.

Hospitality will certainly struggle with another 4 week delay, but an autumn lockdown would kill many of those businesses off completely.

We don't know what things will be like in 4 weeks. What if things are similar? What if this becomes a seasonal issue every winter?

I don't have the answers to these questions but we cannot constantly just make short term decisions. There has to be a time when we accept we cannot fully eradicate this virus and we have to learn to live with it and mitigate is as best we can.

 

[GrandOldTeam]

Completely agree. By September SAGE etc will be screaming for a lockdown.

"It's just another four weeks"
"One final ask"
"But think of the numbers we can get vaccinated in those four weeks as added precaution"

I get all that - but I'm struggling to see the argument for what happens when cases are higher than today. I think it's a fair assumption cases only go one way from today/come autumn/winter.

To me, it just feels like arse governing from the government so 21st June isn't directly attituded to inevitable rising cases.

 

[Tubey]

"It's just another four weeks"
"One final ask"
"But think of the numbers we can get vaccinated in those four weeks as added precaution"

I get all that - but I'm struggling to see the argument for what happens when cases are higher than today. I think it's a fair assumption cases only go one way from today.

To me, it just feels like arse governing from the government so 21st June isn't directly attituded to inevitable rising cases.

Any affected business with half a brain now 'shuts up shop' with the assumption their goosed from now until at least September. If they commit capital to re-opening in mid-July they'd be foolish.

I don't think people quite grasp the consequences of this delay. It's not on the public, who are ignoring all the rules anyway - it's going to decimate a massive sector of our economy and result in large scale job losses. There are cities/towns where up to a third of people work in the sectors that will be demolished by this.

If this delay is accompanied by massive grants to certain businesses on a sliding scale, that'd at least mitigate it, but there's no indication it will be.

 

[grandjoeblue]

"It's just another four weeks"
"One final ask"
"But think of the numbers we can get vaccinated in those four weeks as added precaution"

I get all that - but I'm struggling to see the argument for what happens when cases are higher than today. I think it's a fair assumption cases only go one way from today.

To me, it just feels like arse governing from the government so 21st June isn't directly attituded to inevitable rising cases.

Cases are always going to rise when you open up. Minimising deaths is the main thing and that has been achieved by the vaccination programme.

The goal posts keep moving. The battle against hospitalisation and death has clearly been won. You cannot prevent all deaths. We're averaging about 8 or 9 a day. Personally I think the date should have gone ahead even if deaths do start increasing slightly towards 25 a day.

 

[bluelife]

Still so many 40-60 year olds are without their second dose. In 4 weeks at the current rates, they will have had their second dose. As should be the case, we are following data, and the data tells us that 2 doses gives great protection against this variant, and we know under 40s are at low risk. Get them vaccinated and open up in five weeks, regardless of infection rates.

 

[bluelife]

Cases are always going to rise when you open up. Minimising deaths is the main thing and that has been achieved by the vaccination programme.

The goal posts keep moving. The battle against hospitalisation and death has clearly been won. You cannot prevent all deaths. We're averaging about 8 or 9 a day. Personally I think the date should have gone ahead even if deaths do start increasing slightly towards 25 a day.

25 isn’t close to what has been modelled though - they are looking at well over that if infections rise unchecked before everybody (who wants it) over 35/40 has been double dosed

 

[ToffeeTim]

Any affected business with half a brain now 'shuts up shop' with the assumption their goosed from now until at least September. If they commit capital to re-opening in mid-July they'd be foolish.

I don't think people quite grasp the consequences of this delay. It's not on the public, who are ignoring all the rules anyway - it's going to decimate a massive sector of our economy and result in large scale job losses. There are cities/towns where up to a third of people work in the sectors that will be demolished by this.

If this delay is accompanied by massive grants to certain businesses on a sliding scale, that'd at least mitigate it, but there's no indication it will be.

The argument of "it's only 4 weeks" makes little sense for two main reasons.

Firstly, there is absolutely no clarity what happens in 4 weeks time or for the longer term into the autumn and winter. It seems the government want to take purely short term and reactionary approaches.

Secondly, it's not just 4 weeks. It's 4 weeks on top of 15-16 months of restrictions and disruptions. If a business is already on the brink ( and lots unfortunately are) then this could be prove to be what finishes them off. That's not scaremongering or exagerration, it's just the economic reality. The old wealth v health argument is not appropriate because health and wellbeing are already being seriously effected, both longer and shorter term.

If the government is making this delay than they have to put more support in place for the industries most effected, but even that is not ideal. Support won't make up for loss of a summer's trade.

 

[Amw79]

It’s a very tricky decision for the government, and I don’t envy them in making it.

They’ll be looking at the various best and worst case modelling numbers as to what the death rate could look like in the next month (and what they consider ‘acceptable’).

Given that they messed up the first lockdown by dithering (maybe understandable as it was all so new and unknown), then messed up the second lockdown by dithering (inexcusable as they just did that in order to “save xmas” when it was obvious which way it was going).

The political fallout of ignoring sage again, and then having a load more avoidable deaths would be immense.

Personally, I think they’ll try to fudge it and do a halfway house solution, which satisfies no-one - a few restrictions will be slightly eased (to try to pacify those calling to press ahead), but not opening back up in full (to satisfy sage and avoid getting it wrong a third time).

 

[Tubey]

The argument of "it's only 4 weeks" makes little sense for two main reasons.

Firstly, there is absolutely no clarity what happens in 4 weeks time or for the longer term into the autumn and winter. It seems the government want to take purely short term and reactionary approaches.

Secondly, it's not just 4 weeks. It's 4 weeks on top of 15-16 months of restrictions and disruptions. If a business is already on the brink ( and lots unfortunately are) then this could be prove to be what finishes them off. That's not scaremongering or exagerration, it's just the economic reality. The old wealth v health argument is not appropriate because health and wellbeing are already being seriously effected, both longer and shorter term.

If the government is making this delay than they have to put more support in place for the industries most effected, but even that is not ideal. Support won't make up for loss of a summer's trade.

Indeed. What hurts them is the scaling up then reset; the lack of certainty. That's what people don't understand, they think they can just flick a magic switch and re-open.

To put a date in place months in advance created certainty. To pull that at the last moment destroys that. Nobody is going to trust another word Johnson says (I mean obviously, given it's Johnson, but I mean specifically on this.)

With the vulnerable vaccinated, this sort of decision will cause more harm in terms of mental health etc. than COVID could IMO, but we won't have the graphs to prove it.

 

[COYBL25]

If daily cases and deaths are the same or higher in four weeks than today - what then?

They’ve also not given any indications as to what they intend to do about Summer travel / holidays.

There’s potentially many thousands of jobs down the pan too.

They seem to have made the decision, that hospitality, entertainment and travel can go to the wall.

 

[mill]

It’s not really that big a deal though is it? Another 4 weeks of the current rules.

 

[coollino]

It’s not really that big a deal though is it? Another 4 weeks of the current rules.

It's not for the ordinary person, really. i don't think it will change my life. i still sit outside at pubs where possible for eg.

businesses will suffer though. all the festivals in the next four weeks will be cancelled and probably put some promotors out of business, the same with clubs.

If the government gives people a date, most businesses will work to that date. the main issue for me is the 'free' date shouldn't have provided in March or whenever. and now they seem to be prepare to help some hospitality (weddings) and not other sub sectors.

 

[Deleted member 48881]

Once the G7 has finished I wouldn't be surprised if another super variant is identified somewhere. Thats a newsworthy story for the media.

Concerns grow in St Ives over Covid cases linked to G7 summit

At least five hospitality venues close as two police officers and Extinction Rebellion camp report cases of virus

www.theguardian.com

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

We don't know what things will be like in 4 weeks. What if things are similar? What if this becomes a seasonal issue every winter?

I don't have the answers to these questions but we cannot constantly just make short term decisions. There has to be a time when we accept we cannot fully eradicate this virus and we have to learn to live with it and mitigate is as best we can.

Comes down to how you die, when my time comes I want full compliment of health staff staff prescribing me a pain free death I don't think people have really grasped the dire straits our health and social care is actually in.

Think actually people need to witness an unmanaged death, the pain and suffering a body will go through not minutes hours but days of sheer agony.

So don't have much sympathy for innate babies who can't pop a few fun time pills and get all loved up club/warehouse. As stated more sympathy for those who legitimately work in the industry and that should recognised by government.

 

[Deleted member 48881]

Comes down to how you die, when my time comes I want full compliment of health staff staff prescribing me a pain free death I don't think people have really grasped the dire straits our health and social care is actually in.

Think actually people need to witness an unmanaged death, the pain and suffering a body will go through not minutes hours but days of sheer agony.

So don't have much sympathy for innate babies who can't pop a few fun time pills and get all loved up club/warehouse. As stated more sympathy for those who legitimately work in the industry and that should recognised by government.

You utterly underestimate the sufferings of the youth. It is not like just drugs, gigs and parties missing. They lose the best part of their life. Oldies, as much as I want them healthy as long as possible, have had their youth at the very least. And its been 1,5 years. Whole population tried to protect them in the mean time.

Getting old sucks, pandemic or no pandemic, this is not new. Death too.