Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[bluelife]

True.

Some of the rent a scientists, are predicting 100 000 cases a day by mid July, if we unlock on Monday and that the current restrictions could / may have to remain in place until Spring 2022 to keep the lid on it.

There’ll be more variants along in the meantime and around and around we go.

Personally, I’ve had enough of all this now.

Think we've all had enough - doesn't change that restoring completely normal life would lead to 10s of thousands of unnecessary deaths. Is life really that bad at the minute? Do people really need to have indoor parties or go clubbing? Thankfully the majority are compliant and so we plod on. People thinking they know more than scientists has been the most frustrating aspect of all of this.

 

[Amw79]

Think we've all had enough - doesn't change that restoring completely normal life would lead to 10s of thousands of unnecessary deaths. Is life really that bad at the minute? Do people really need to have indoor parties or go clubbing? Thankfully the majority are compliant and so we plod on. People thinking they know more than scientists has been the most frustrating aspect of all of this.

I don’t know, I think we’ve all learnt a valuable lesson, that there’s no point in wasting decades of your life getting degrees and masters degrees and PHDs, then spending decades working in a relevant scientific field, when you can simply watch a 10 minute YouTube vid where Russell Brand explains it all to you.

 

[Tubey]

Think we've all had enough - doesn't change that restoring completely normal life would lead to 10s of thousands of unnecessary deaths. Is life really that bad at the minute? Do people really need to have indoor parties or go clubbing? Thankfully the majority are compliant and so we plod on. People thinking they know more than scientists has been the most frustrating aspect of all of this.

Ah but that's the question - would it?

I'm not so sure. I think not rolling back completely to lockdown would result in a few thousand more deaths, but the measures on 21 June? Not so sure myself.

 

[Deckard2049]

Think we've all had enough - doesn't change that restoring completely normal life would lead to 10s of thousands of unnecessary deaths. Is life really that bad at the minute? Do people really need to have indoor parties or go clubbing? Thankfully the majority are compliant and so we plod on. People thinking they know more than scientists has been the most frustrating aspect of all of this.

Ok boomer.

 

[COYBL25]

Think we've all had enough - doesn't change that restoring completely normal life would lead to 10s of thousands of unnecessary deaths. Is life really that bad at the minute? Do people really need to have indoor parties or go clubbing? Thankfully the majority are compliant and so we plod on. People thinking they know more than scientists has been the most frustrating aspect of all of this.

Some are now advocating Spring 2022. A few are even saying we remain in restrictions until it’s eradicated altogether lol

In the meantime how many more new “ variants “ will have come along by then and we cintinielive like this in perpetuity ?


At some point we’re going to have to say “ it is what it is and it’s time to get on with things and accept it’s here to stay.

It’s not just clubs though is it ?

Theatres, outside events like festivals, footy grounds, concerts etc anywhere, where large numbers of people gather.

We’re getting on for 15 months into this now and nothing has really changed at all.

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

I really really hope people remember this next time we all have to vote. If we have to delay the "Freedom Day" then it wasnt joe blogs on a forum who caused it or even any scientist, only one Government dithered and delayed things long enough for this variant to gain a strong foothold before we could really tackle it, sadly it is the same Government people seem to defend a all costs.

 

[Tubey]

I really really hope people remember this next time we all have to vote. If we have to delay the "Freedom Day" then it wasnt joe blogs on a forum who caused it or even any scientist, only one Government dithered and delayed things long enough for this variant to gain a strong foothold before we could really tackle it, sadly it is the same Government people seem to defend a all costs.

The problem is who do you vote for instead?

 

[tsubaki]

Interesting graph.

It is, but only in exposing the ignorance of Oliver Smith - he is comparing two countries who tried (at least initially in our case) to just ignore it, trust to people following personal responsibility etc etc.

When you extend the comparison to countries that took things seriously from the beginning, it is rather stark:



data from here: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

 

[bluelife]

Ah but that's the question - would it?

I'm not so sure. I think not rolling back completely to lockdown would result in a few thousand more deaths, but the measures on 21 June? Not so sure myself.

Going off the modelling put together by the universities a few months back for this step - yes that's the outcome

 

[bluelife]

Some are now advocating Spring 2022. A few are even saying we remain in restrictions until it’s eradicated altogether lol

In the meantime how many more new “ variants “ will have come along by then and we cintinielive like this in perpetuity ?


At some point we’re going to have to say “ it is what it is and it’s time to get on with things and accept it’s here to stay.

It’s not just clubs though is it ?

Theatres, outside events like festivals, footy grounds, concerts etc anywhere, where large numbers of people gather.

We’re getting on for 15 months into this now and nothing has really changed at all.

But at some point we have to accept that as a population, we are prone to pandemics which can alter our way of life. The Western world has had it pretty good for the last 60 years which I think has bred an air of invincibility, making some non-accepting of the need for change.
The fact is a virus spreads less when we mitigate contact... and this virus kills a lot of people because it spreads easily with a considerable mortality rate. Yes there needs to be a tradeoff in terms of normal life vs stay in and cower - but in my opinion, what we have right now is fine... let's get all adults who want it vaccinated and then take the final step

 

[Deckard2049]

It is, but only in exposing the ignorance of Oliver Smith - he is comparing two countries who tried (at least initially in our case) to just ignore it, trust to people following personal responsibility etc etc.

When you extend the comparison to countries that took things seriously from the beginning, it is rather stark:

View attachment 130456

data from here: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths

Your notion is that because Sweden didn’t officially lockdown they never took things seriously?

 

[bluelife]

Some are now advocating Spring 2022. A few are even saying we remain in restrictions until it’s eradicated altogether lol

In the meantime how many more new “ variants “ will have come along by then and we cintinielive like this in perpetuity ?


At some point we’re going to have to say “ it is what it is and it’s time to get on with things and accept it’s here to stay.

It’s not just clubs though is it ?

Theatres, outside events like festivals, footy grounds, concerts etc anywhere, where large numbers of people gather.

We’re getting on for 15 months into this now and nothing has really changed at all.

Also putting variants in quotation marks isn't useful - variants occur and can fundamentally change what we are dealing with. Nobody is making them up to suit an agenda as some seem to think. The lack of border control is a farce though, indicative of an out-of-its-depth government.

 

[spectateur]

Your notion is that because Sweden didn’t officially lockdown they never took things seriously?

They took the Cummings way seriously.
The Sweden approach was widely admired by the UK right wing media.
(and a prominent contributor on here)

 

[Tubey]

Going off the modelling put together by the universities a few months back for this step - yes that's the outcome

The modelling throughout has been wrong though, often up to 400% wrong.

Forecasting for COVID-19 has failed - PMC

Epidemic forecasting has a dubious track-record, and its failures became more prominent with COVID-19. Poor data input, wrong modeling assumptions, high sensitivity of estimates, lack of incorporation of epidemiological features, poor past evidence ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

How the UK's Covid reopening has proved Imperial's pessimistic modelling wrong

Here is what government scientists said would happen and what we know now

www.telegraph.co.uk

I don't know how they factor in "COVID safe" measures, but I'd assume it's the same thing and they'll be grossly overestimating the impact the extra lifting of measures would result in, probably because they also grossly overestimate how many people are following the rules now.

 

[TN Toffee]

For all the talk of “Freedom Day”, what is exactly set to change on June 21? Restaurants and pubs are already open in some capacity. Nothing I’ve read indicates full sports stadiums are going to be allowed. Most of the West End shows in London aren’t reopening until late-July or August at the earliest, don’t know about other indoor theatre/music venues. So what exactly would everyone be giving up if it is pushed by 4-6 weeks to get a few million more people fully vaxxed?