Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[grandjoeblue]

That happened to me in Manchester the other day.
The waitress checked and doubled checked.
Am I right in saying that you can sign in with the NHS COVID 19 app but it doesn't need to be switched
on to scanning? It looks like it, but seems a bit pointless if that is the case.

You can also delete the app straight after it and as its anonymous I don't think you'd get notified?

I'd imagine that a large percentage of people don't use the app properly for various reasons.

 

[summerisle]

 

[Neiler]

Still low absolute numbers but trend not great.


iirc the flatter bit of the second plot suggests shorter stays than previous waves

FFS.

Not great.

 

[Paris]

Looking at the figures, it's probably time to build a wall around the NW. Sorry guys.

 

[grandjoeblue]

I do think there will be a moderate increase in death over the next few weeks/months. Hopefully it will be 50 a day or so rather than what we seen in the winter. The signs from Bolton are positive but obviously all areas of the North West are seeing rises and deaths will increase.

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

Captain Hindsight.

This thread didnt even start till 20th Jan, 2020.

I was spending 2 or 3 hours a day, every day, in an ICU in Bristol, and there was not a single sign of anything untoward on the way.

Hancock Captain Hindsight very generous of you.
Not really hindsight if Hancock has asked the question of civil servants got an answer of 800,000 deaths in January 2020. Think you need listen to his answers in the select committee today rather than go off on one and play to the gallery.

 

[roydo]

Hancock Captain Hindsight very generous of you.
Not really hindsight if Hancock has asked the question of civil servants got an answer of 800,000, be deaths in January 2020. Think you need listen to his answers in the select committee today rather than go off on one and play to the gallery.

Not going off on one, nor playing to a gallery.

You said the handling of it early Jan 2020 was appalling. If you can dig out your post saying that back then, be my guest. Everything else is hindsight.

As for the modelling, as I have said a billion times, its stochastic modelling, which anyone with any knowledge of will attest to, that its basically "what do you want it to say?".

 

[LinekersLegs]

FFS.

Not great.

There are some bright spots, admissions predominately among younger patients still so probably will recover quicker (so less impact on NHS capability) and less serious outcomes.


But if the roughly 5% hospitalization rate, whilst thankfully lower than the previous wave, holds up and case numbers round the rest of the country follow the North West trend than unfortunately no, not great.

 

[roydo]

There are some bright spots, admissions predominately among younger patients still so probably will recover quicker (so less impact on NHS capability) and less serious outcomes.


But if the roughly 5% hospitalization rate, whilst thankfully lower than the previous wave, holds up and case numbers round the rest of the country follow the North West trend than unfortunately no, not great.

Thing is LL, so far, what, 4 weeks after this variant said Hi, it hasnt spread across the UK. Its still, the NW, Glasgow, and somewhere in the Midlands. The Kent one went on a UK tour pretty quickly.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Thing is LL, so far, what, 4 weeks after this variant said Hi, it hasnt spread across the UK. Its still, the NW, Glasgow, and somewhere in the Midlands. The Kent one went on a UK tour pretty quickly.

Unfortunately the Delta variant is now dominant everywhere (alpha is the artist formerly known as Kent)


As the second tweet shows the absolute numbers are still very low in lot of those places and perhaps there will be some combo of circumstances/conditions that mean that the small outbreaks don’t increase like they have in NW but tbh that is more hope than analysis.

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

Not going off on one, nor playing to a gallery.

You said the handling of it early Jan 2020 was appalling. If you can dig out your post saying that back then, be my guest. Everything else is hindsight.

As for the modelling, as I have said a billion times, its stochastic modelling, which anyone with any knowledge of will attest to, that its basically "what do you want it to say?".

Don't have to dig anything just listen to Hancock today, he said it himself, he tasked the civil service to model worst case scenario for the UK in January 2020, it came back with 800,000 deaths. They did nothing much until March. Woefully inadequate, like ignoring the mechanic advice on timing belt change on your car, then moaning when it snaps 20 miles down the road, its not hindsight it's risk taking, very appalling bad risk taking with people's lives.

 

[roydo]

Don't have to dig anything just listen to Hancock today, he said it himself, he tasked the civil service to model worst case scenario for the UK in January 2020, it came back with 800,000 deaths. They did nothing much until March. Woefully inadequate, like ignoring the mechanic advice on timing belt change on your car, then moaning when it snaps 20 miles down the road, its not hindsight it's risk taking, very appalling bad risk taking.

I heard some of it. Not that bit though.

You have shown by that reply that you have no clue how stochastic modelling is, nor why its used. To use your own example of a timing belt, stochastic modelling could ask "what would happen if the timing belt broke, you had no petrol, the car burst into flames, and there was a fireman strike?"

As a worst case scenario. (800,000 in worst case, covid wise).

So, after getting that output, you go, "so, what do we need to do?"

I am not saying the 125000 ish deaths is in anyway "good", but its a damn sight lower than the civil service modelling.

 

[Paris]

200 have died across China Japan Thailand and Korea.

There were an 400 more deaths in one day in the UK alone this summer attributed to warm weather.

Summer heatwave 'death spike' seen in UK

There was an increase in deaths when Britain had its hottest day on record this summer.

www.bbc.co.uk

This didn't really age well. Up there with his post that the vaccine was only 10% effective lol

 

[Neiler]

There are some bright spots, admissions predominately among younger patients still so probably will recover quicker (so less impact on NHS capability) and less serious outcomes.


But if the roughly 5% hospitalization rate, whilst thankfully lower than the previous wave, holds up and case numbers round the rest of the country follow the North West trend than unfortunately no, not great.

True, but these are likely cases from the 3k average figure a week or so ago, they are sticking at 7k as the crow flies.

The FFS, is probably a bit of a practical selfish comment, just about recovering services, team morale and energy levels from Oct -April, last thing we need is a spike of 40% admission and reintroduction of service restrictions.

 

[Mrk]

Don't have to dig anything just listen to Hancock today, he said it himself, he tasked the civil service to model worst case scenario for the UK in January 2020, it came back with 800,000 deaths. They did nothing much until March. Woefully inadequate, like ignoring the mechanic advice on timing belt change on your car, then moaning when it snaps 20 miles down the road, its not hindsight it's risk taking, very appalling bad risk taking with people's lives.

lol that's not saying a lot really though. If you task our civil service to model the worst case scenario of anything it will be apocalyptic - we're notoriously neurotic and pessimistic. That's why nobody takes a blind bit of notice of what our civil service says on any subject.

There have been multiple failings along the way - nobody would deny that - but @roydo is spot on. That's before we even get on to how unprepared 'the state' as a whole was to deal with a once in a generation catastrophe like this.