Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[roydo]

What does that one model with 50k+ cases in June that then suddenly falls of cliff entail? A worst case scenario where everything goes wrong and the country being forced back into lockdown?

Probably.

But thats the point. They are models based on "what ifs".

Sooner rather than later, "what haves" deliver the actual reality.

 

[TN Toffee]

Probably.

But thats the point. They are models based on "what ifs".

Sooner rather than later, "what haves" deliver the actual reality.

And thankfully the “what haves” seem to be turning out better than even the most conservative projections to this point.

I was just curious what data could have driven a model that looked like that, and another lockdown is all I could come up with. A complete falloff in cases in mid-June after a massive spring spike certainly couldn’t have coincided with the reopening going ahead as scheduled.

 

[LinekersLegs]

And thankfully the “what haves” seem to be turning out better than even the most conservative projections to this point.

I was just curious what data could have driven a model that looked like that, and another lockdown is all I could come up with. A complete falloff in cases in mid-June after a massive spring spike certainly couldn’t have coincided with the reopening going ahead as scheduled.

The small print on that graph says this
Imperial College Covid-19 Response Team for SPI-M (17 Feb) / SAGE. Scenarios 1-4 are in decreasing speed of lifting restrictions. Scenario 5 includes effects of vaccinations. All detailed on page 2 of report. England only
Chart: The Spectator (zGYM2)Source: Imperial College Covid-19 Response Team - “Unlocking” Roadmap Scenarios for England v2

and the link goes to a paper with lots of different scenarios. The big spring spike one if I understand it correctly was modeling lifting all NPI restrictions in March/April ie something that never happened (possibly because the model suggested it was a very bad idea!)

 

[PhilM]

The UK is seeing an "early" third wave of Covid-19 infections which is being led by the Indian variant, Prof Gupta says.

He is member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) which advsises the government, and tells the Today programme: "There has been exponential growth in the number of the new cases and at least three-quarters of them are the new variant.

"Of course the numbers of cases are relatively low at the moment - all waves start with low numbers of cases that rumble in the background and then become explosive, so the key here is that what we are seeing here is the signs of an early wave.

"It will probably take longer than earlier waves to emerge because of the fact that we do have quite high levels of vaccination in the population, so there may be a false sense of security for some time, and that's our concern."

 

[Tramps_mate]

If it's not contagious, then how is it spreading! We certainly don't want that coming over here!

Redirect Notice

 

[ForeverBlue92]

Hopefully to compliment vaccination we continue to find more effective treatments for Covid

 

[Brennan]

If it's not contagious, then how is it spreading! We certainly don't want that coming over here!

Redirect Notice

It gives suggestions why it has become more prevalent in the article.

 

[Brennan]

I’d push back this June 21st date now, tbh.

Looks like under 30s won’t be offered the first vaccine jab until mid to late June at the very earliest, and even that will be the 27-29 range.

Nightclubs opening and allowing all of these unvaccinated young adults to mix with abandon and become asymptomatic carriers in the community ? Not for me.

 

[Tramps_mate]

It gives suggestions why it has become more prevalent in the article.

Have I misread? I don't see.. it says something about steroids incorrectly being given..

 

[Brennan]

Have I misread? I don't see.. it says something about steroids incorrectly being given..

The article says, it preys on people with compromised immune systems (Covid does this) as do steroids, so the implication is that steroids are being given in these areas for no good reason. Perhaps in an attempt to treat covid.

 

[Tramps_mate]

The article says, it preys on people with compromised immune systems (Covid does this) as do steroids, so the implication is that steroids are being given in these areas for no good reason. Perhaps in an attempt to treat covid.

So the fungus is caused by the steroid? But strange that like..

 

[Deckard2049]

Genuine, none troll question- what exactly is the current data on asymptomatic transmission and the reliability of test results on these people?

 

[peteblue]

Putting things in perspective....the U.K. has about 1200-1500 hospitals. There are 900 people in hospital with Covid of which 123 are in ICU....

 

[Deleted member 48881]

Wout Weghorst from the Dutch NT (Wolfsburg striker) refuses to get vaccinated. Crises in the team. Scenes...

 

[Paris]

I’d push back this June 21st date now, tbh.

Looks like under 30s won’t be offered the first vaccine jab until mid to late June at the very earliest, and even that will be the 27-29 range.

Nightclubs opening and allowing all of these unvaccinated young adults to mix with abandon and become asymptomatic carriers in the community ? Not for me.

There really is no need to be extending beyond June 21. The evidence is that vaccines work, overwhelmingly so, and if you're young then you are extremely unlikely to suffer from Covid which means that the risk/reward ratio is very much in favour of going ahead with June 21.

So despite what the 'Scientists for Hire' may yell, they can STFU.