Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[COYBL25]

Inevitable according to Chris Whitty.

Whitty and Vallance need lynching. No question. Two nodding dogs.

You mean this Chris Whitty, the one that needs lynching ?

Ps - loving the way you can effortlessly switch, from wanting someone hung by a mob, to you hanging off their every word.

 

[davek]

Yeah, depending on what they input into the modelling they asked the thing to do.

IF X Y C happened, what would A B C be?

I guarantee that if the input data was 95% vax take up and 92% success, (cant spell that effergy word), the data output would be a moon away. I used to use a simpler version of one.

Like I said, not inevitable, but not impossible.

I think they made clear that their model depended on the succcess or failure of each stage of the road map...that would represent the 'ABC' of your example, I think.

Some will say that school reopening and the partial reopening of hospitalty with no evidence of an undermining of the reduction in infection makes their darker end of the spectrum - outcome wise - appear overly pessimistic. But I worry that the turn toward indoor events will prove the darker end of the spectrum correct...or at least nearer the mark.

 

[Goat]

7th April 2021.

Government advisers on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) have predicted that the re-opening will lead to a third wave of Covid-19.

Scientists say even if we stop mixing indoors and gather in groups of up to six people or two households outside it's a case of "when" not "if" it will happen again.

SAGE papers released yesterday suggest the roadmap could unleash a deadly third wave which could potentially be size of the second wave in January for hospital admissions.

What's more, it is almost unavoidable - despite the success of the vaccine rollout so far.
SPI-M-O said: “It is highly likely that there will be a further resurgence in hospitalisations and deaths after the later steps of the Roadmap.”

The reason for this the combination of three things together. Some people - mostly children - are ineligible for vaccination, others choose not to get a jab, and people who’ve had the vaccine don’t get 100% protection.

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Imperial estimated only 44.6% of the population will be protected against severe disease by June 21, “plateauing” at 61% later in summer.

In “most” scenarios, the peak of a third wave is smaller than that of either the second wave in January 2021, or the first in April 2020.

However, there are some “plausible” scenarios given to SAGE - if there is poorer vaccine efficacy and few measures at Step 4 - where the number of hospital cases could match the 35,000-odd peak we saw in January.

Warwick has a central assumption with an admissions peak of around 10,000.

But Warwick and LSHTM’s lower efficacy scenarios both predict a late summer surge could see admissions back up to around 30,000.

This isnt a scientist, this is made up rubbish.

I need quotes from science people.

 

[davek]

Weren’t you calling him a government puppet and deriding everything he said a few months ago?

fwiw it’s worth I hope the test events go well and people can get some semblance of normality back. The most vulnerable have been vaccinated but unfortunately deaths are inevitable, I would be eager to see what the scientists and government would accept as a daily death rate. New cases should now be irrelevant really (at this point) as it would appear the vaccines are working nicely.

If hels not a puppet, then he's maleable. He can be relied upon to tell the truth when needed and lie when needed. Dependent upon current government strategy.

 

[roydo]

I think they made clear that their model depended on the succcess or failure of each stage of the road map...that woukld represent the 'ABC' of your example, I think.

Some will say that the partial reopeningmof hospitalty and the school reopening with no evidence of an underminingof the reduction in infection makes their darker end of the spectrum - outcome wise - appear overly pessimistic. But I worry that the turn toward indoor events will prove the darker end of the spectrum correct...or at least nearer the marm.

Thats kinda it mate. Its why the windows between dates were the 5 weeks, (data data data), to double check they outcome they modelled. Obvs, I have no idea of what they did input, but I would hazard a guess that it was exactly what they/we are doing. Slippage of anything leads to a reassessment. (Remember the "lumpy" vax supply line for April? Didnt happen, but might have).

And unexpected results would lead to a different model, hence the live tests in Liverpool; its all part of a slow, cautious, modelled, return.

 

[BlueStevie35]

Hospital figures - 17 deaths were announced today, down 2 on yesterday and down 5 on last Saturday. 16 deaths were in English hospitals, up 2 on yesterday and down 4 on last week. The 7 day rolling average falls to 17.43

All settings - for the 28 day cut off, 7 deaths were announced today, down 8 on yesterday and down 25 on last Saturday. The 7 day rolling average falls to 15.29

For the 60 day cut off, 28 deaths were announced today, down 22 on yesterday and down 39 on last Saturday. The 7 day rolling average falls to 38.14

 

[toffee82]

If hels not a puppet, then he's maleable. He can be relied upon to tell the truth when needed and lie when needed. Dependent upon current government strategy.

And you choose to believe him when you want.

 

[wainy]

If hels not a puppet, then he's maleable. He can be relied upon to tell the truth when needed and lie when needed. Dependent upon current government strategy.

I don’t know, I doubt he’d be where he is in his field by pandering to politicians.

 

[toffee82]

Any 40 or 41 year olds booked their vaccine yesterday?

How long do you have to wait?

I'm 39 and want to take my kid to see my mum during half term. Indoor mixing is allowed and she's had both jabs. I'd feel better if I have had a jab.

 

[LinekersLegs]

We’re still finding better treatments which partnered with vaccines should really help with long term management

 

[Charro]

Inevitable according to Chris Whitty.

Nope. He hasn’t said this

 

[roydo]

Nope. He hasn’t said this

Well he did, but based on a god awful and not happening modelling scenarios.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[DanEFC92]

 

[LinekersLegs]