Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Jebus_lives]

But they have stressed that it's four key data points that they are measuring.

The dates give people hope. As it stands, we're on track to meet them. We may end up not doing, but that's just a case of waiting and seeing how it plays out.

I know that. I don't the public are widely aware of it. The dates 'give hope' but much like watching Everton, that hope quickly turns into frustration.

 

[Jebus_lives]

Because right now we're on track to meet it.

It's still 11 weeks away. 13 weeks ago yesterday was the start of the last lockdown - we're just past halfway through and all of the key measuring factors that they're using are staying low.

But that could change. No need to scrap everything or panic when it's actually going well. If the dates need to change, they will.

Much easier to change the dates, when you haven't put firm dates in the minds of the public.

 

[grandjoeblue]

I'm not sure everyone does, that's the issue.

I don't get how there isn't a step inbetween. In May we can only have 2 families in a house but in June we could have 100s?

 

[davek]

No they did not. Another complete and total over reaction on your part yet again.
What they did is a number of models based on different parameters. The very worst
case scenario which included low immunity of the vaccine and possible new yet unknown variants
came to the potential conclusion that a third wave might occur. The best case scenario result was that
everything will be fine if we continue on the roadmap that has been laid out. In all probability it will
be somewhere in the middle. The doomsday, nightmare scenario is the one you have chosen to
highlight (no surprise there) along with the media (no surprise there). As you know Davek, good
news doesn't give you and the media the response and replies you and they are seeking.

BS.

"Modelling from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) showing that, while stage two of the unlocking is unlikely to exert pressure on the NHS, the proposed changes for May and June when social mixing is set to be permitted again could cause hospital admissions to rise to levels seen during January’s winter peak. Minutes from the Sage meeting on March 31 said there could be resurgences in hospital admissions “of a similar scale to January 2021 after later stages of the road map”.

 

[toffee82]

I don't get how there isn't a step inbetween. In May we can only have 2 families in a house but in June we could have 100s?

I think it is based on the notion that by 21st June, everyone over 40 will have had one jab (and about three weeks for it to kick in).

The real world data is showing around 70% efficacy (possibly higher) from one jab against catching it. Protection from serious illness is higher. It looks like it reduces transmission also.

Cases did not spike when schools returned. If anything they kept coming down. We hovered at around 5,000 per day but test numbers doubled.

 

[toffee82]

BS.

"Modelling from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) showing that, while stage two of the unlocking is unlikely to exert pressure on the NHS, the proposed changes for May and June when social mixing is set to be permitted again could cause hospital admissions to rise to levels seen during January’s winter peak. Minutes from the Sage meeting on March 31 said there could be resurgences in hospital admissions “of a similar scale to January 2021 after later stages of the road map”.

There also could not.

 

[davek]

Was saying a week or so ago that the 21st of June, as proposed, is a pipe dream. I really hope we can get back to a degree of normality but it just doesn't feel like it's coming any time soon. Even with the vaccination program. If we want to pursue with opening up boarders again I feel the whole world needs to be vaccinated to a certain degree. Apparently Chile had a third vaccinated, fully opened, and they're experiencing their worse wave.

More deadly variants, some that could (more likely) hospitalise under 50s is a possibility.

This "safe" reopening is for thre birds.

It is the ideology of a Death Cult in the Tory Party who want to claw back economic losses and feather the nests of their corporate clients. They should be in jail, every last one of them.

It's obvious from every passing media conference that this government and its preferred medical puppet spokesmen that they are backing off the huge claims they made on behalf of the vaccines 2 months ago.

 

[davek]

There also could not.

...and guess which one we should go with after seeing 126,000 people perish from this virus in 12 months?

 

[davek]

I agree. I even agree with that in any country that has decided to do it.

I'm not sure completely suspending the roll out while it happens is the right way to go about it, however.

...but we at least agree now that AZ has to be sidelined if a substitute is there.

 

[Jebus_lives]

There also could not.

I think the could in this instance serves as the caveat that we cannot know for certain...

Much like jumping out of a plane without a parachute, might not kill you.

 

[BlueToff]

...but we at least agree now that AZ has to be sidelined if a substitute is there.

It isn't though, is it, that's the issue.

I agree it needs to be investigated, but still think the benefits far outweigh the risks

 

[davek]

It isn't though, is it, that's the issue.

I agree it needs to be investigated, but still think the benefits far outweigh the risks

Moderna comes into play in April. So, yes, there is.

 

[BlueToff]

Much easier to change the dates, when you haven't put firm dates in the minds of the public.

To me, they've made it pretty clear.

A government can't do anything about people being thick. The dates give people hope and right now there's no indication we won't meet them.

As was made abundantly clear again yesterday, the phased reopening is basically all one big data-gathering exercise. It might be blunt but that's what it is.

 

[BlueToff]

Moderna comes into play in April. So, yes, there is.

not enough in the UK. Novavax may be a big help. The more options, the better.

There's as much evidence as Pfizer causing clots as there is AZ.

 

[toffee82]

I think the could in this instance serves as the caveat that we cannot know for certain...

Much like jumping out of a plane without a parachute, might not kill you.

That's why there is 5 weeks between each stage.

Numbers have continued to drop so we can cautiously open up.

How far we get is another matter.