Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Spadge Vernacular]

Dave appears to have multiple rods and lines in the water lol

There is some truth though in saying that vaccines are not the end of the pandemic, yet. There are many studies pointing to the fact that we still do need to be cautious, not give up on life but also not go back at it with gay abandon. I will be straight into the beer gardens of pubs once we are able and will be having safe merriment with friends in my back garden too

But for consideration

DEFINE_ME

www.thelancet.com

COVID-19: Vaccines alone will not end pandemic, warns IFRC - World

News and Press Release in English on World about Health and Epidemic; published on 11 Jan 2021 by IFRC

reliefweb.int

Five reasons why COVID herd immunity is probably impossible

Even with vaccination efforts in full force, the theoretical threshold for vanquishing COVID-19 looks to be out of reach.

www.nature.com

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210204/COVID-19-vaccination-alone-may-not-end-the-pandemic.aspx

We all need fun back in our lives but sensible fun until we get a clearer view of the effect of the vaccine programme seems the logical way to go.

 

[Tipp blue]

I accept that the 12 week period between jabs was to some extent a gamble by our government, but I believe that it was an educated one and that it had scientific support. It certainly made sense to me and, for once, had the overwhelming support of this countries population, with just the odd dissenter (same as on here really)

With each new piece of research/evidence coming through we're finding more and more that it was the correct decision to make and, fortunately to some extent, the gamble paid off.

What I don't understand is, now that the evidence is there, why aren't other countries following suit? If I was German or French or Italian, I'd be screaming for my government to do what the British had done and get a single dose into as many people as quickly as possible. But I don't think any of them are even considering it. Why?

Because EU loves regulations and rules.. it would appear that the vaccine roll out is finally getting up to pace in the EU after a terribly slow start, reports in Ireland are that we can expect a million vaccines a month from April, with a population of about 5.5 million, things will start to change quickly. Fingers crossed.

 

[tsubaki]

I accept that the 12 week period between jabs was to some extent a gamble by our government, but I believe that it was an educated one and that it had scientific support. It certainly made sense to me and, for once, had the overwhelming support of this countries population, with just the odd dissenter (same as on here really)

With each new piece of research/evidence coming through we're finding more and more that it was the correct decision to make and, fortunately to some extent, the gamble paid off.

What I don't understand is, now that the evidence is there, why aren't other countries following suit? If I was German or French or Italian, I'd be screaming for my government to do what the British had done and get a single dose into as many people as quickly as possible. But I don't think any of them are even considering it. Why?

I think it’s because there isn’t the clear trend in evidence showing that delaying the Pfizer dose for as long as we were going to works that you suggest here. If anything, it looks the opposite:

Delaying the second dose of covid-19 vaccines

Concerns remain about effectiveness in older adults On 30 December 2020, the UK announced a deviation from the recommended protocol for the Pfizer-BioNTech covid-19 vaccine, prolonging the interval between doses from 3 to 12 weeks.12 Similar decisions were made for the Oxford-AstraZeneca...

www.bmj.com

 

[BlueToff]

I don’t think you can say that (that delaying the second dose) has been a success with any degree of confidence - we’ve been locked down throughout, and the decline in case numbers / deaths is broadly similar to the first one.

In any case, all we’ve effectively swapped is having a few million Pfizer people less first jabs for having a few million more with two doses, and there’s still nothing that’s come out publicly about how long the protection for one dose lasts. Anecdotally they’ve seemed to quietly swerve from the hard and fast rule that it would be given at 12 weeks and not before, which kind of suggests they might know something we don’t.

You've said this all along though so I don't expect you to be changing your tune. Fair enough, I know you didn't think it was the right gamble to make.

Some people are still having 12 weeks, others are varying between 6/7 and 10. It was always 'up to 12' with AZ (and it seems that's the one that they are doing longer waits on). Pfizer seems different and where possible they are reducing the gap but I know that my nan and Aunt is 10 weeks and one day. Would the efficacy really vastly drop if that was delayed another week? I doubt it... I think it was always just a case of increasing the wait at first and then, when possible, bringing it down. It makes sense. It's all about supply and logistics too - especially with Pfizer.

Yes we've been in lockdown, but schools have been open for the last 3 weeks, and we've still seen numbers keep on dropping, despite a mass increase in testing (twice weekly in secondary schools) and there's been much more people going to work for the last 2 months than in the first lockdown this time last year (as in actually into a place of work).

I'm pretty sure we can say there's been an effect. How large - well yes that's up for debate and it's only by gradually coming out of lockdown that we'll definitely see.

 

[BlueToff]

I can see where Dave is coming from, firstly people going around all full of beer aren't going to be the most astute at social distancing. Covid 19 is not going away any time soon if ever what I do think will happen sooner rather than later is that a variant will appear that will be highly contagious but much less lethal it will become dominant and join the other Corona viruses that spread in humans causing nothing more than a common cold.

This is precisely the point.

So we live with it.

You're also probably spot on with the new variant. But that's achieved by herd immunity. Now, herd immunity would cost us 1000s of lives wouldn't it - well, 100s of 1000s.

So, the vaccines speed that process up.

 

[Tubey]

I don’t think you can say that (that delaying the second dose) has been a success with any degree of confidence - we’ve been locked down throughout, and the decline in case numbers / deaths is broadly similar to the first one.

In any case, all we’ve effectively swapped is having a few million Pfizer people less first jabs for having a few million more with two doses, and there’s still nothing that’s come out publicly about how long the protection for one dose lasts. Anecdotally they’ve seemed to quietly swerve from the hard and fast rule that it would be given at 12 weeks and not before, which kind of suggests they might know something we don’t.

Yes we can. Numerous studies backing it up now, including real world effectiveness and approval from numerous health bodies for the approach.

It was the right call and it has worked.

 

[tsubaki]

Yes we can. Numerous studies backing it up now, including real world effectiveness and approval from numerous health bodies for the approach.

It was the right call and it has worked.

“Numerous studies”? Let’s see some of them then.

 

[COYBL25]

I can see where Dave is coming from, firstly people going around all full of beer aren't going to be the most astute at social distancing. Covid 19 is not going away any time soon if ever what I do think will happen sooner rather than later is that a variant will appear that will be highly contagious but much less lethal it will become dominant and join the other Corona viruses that spread in humans causing nothing more than a common cold.

Yet, the stats remained roughly flat from from when hospitality re opened last year on the 4th July, until the schools and uni`s re opened ?

Schools are Uni`s are what turbo charged things, not hospitality.

 

[Tubey]

“Numerous studies”? Let’s see some of them then.

DEFINE_ME

www.thelancet.com

 

[Tipp blue]

This is precisely the point.

So we live with it.

You're also probably spot on with the new variant. But that's achieved by herd immunity. Now, herd immunity would cost us 1000s of lives wouldn't it - well, 100s of 1000s.

So, the vaccines speed that process up.

The key will be to keep an eye on every new variant for the one that will be less lethal, and not eradicate it by a snap lockdown of an area or country, we will need to be prepared to find it quickly and actively spread it.

 

[tsubaki]

DEFINE_ME

www.thelancet.com

Tubey that study doesn’t show the effectiveness of delaying Pfizer second doses; it shows the effectiveness of giving the vaccine as it was (or close to) designed and approved.

 

[peteblue]

I accept that the 12 week period between jabs was to some extent a gamble by our government, but I believe that it was an educated one and that it had scientific support. It certainly made sense to me and, for once, had the overwhelming support of this countries population, with just the odd dissenter (same as on here really)

With each new piece of research/evidence coming through we're finding more and more that it was the correct decision to make and, fortunately to some extent, the gamble paid off.

What I don't understand is, now that the evidence is there, why aren't other countries following suit? If I was German or French or Italian, I'd be screaming for my government to do what the British had done and get a single dose into as many people as quickly as possible. But I don't think any of them are even considering it. Why?

And admit the U.K. was right and they were wrong, that’s never going to happen with the ego’s of politicians.....

 

[Tubey]

Tubey that study doesn’t show the effectiveness of delaying Pfizer second doses; it shows the effectiveness of giving the vaccine as it was (or close to) designed and approved.

Nope.

Our data show substantial early reductions in SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptomatic COVID-19 rates following first vaccine dose administration. Early reductions of COVID-19 rates provide support of delaying the second dose in countries facing vaccine shortages and scarce resources, so as to allow higher population coverage with a single dose.

 

[tsubaki]

Nope.

Our data show substantial early reductions in SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptomatic COVID-19 rates following first vaccine dose administration. Early reductions of COVID-19 rates provide support of delaying the second dose in countries facing vaccine shortages and scarce resources, so as to allow higher population coverage with a single dose.

er - that was why the Israelis didn’t do that (either in that test or in their own programme)? we’ve also not got vaccine shortages or scarce resources?

 

[spectateur]

I might start hitting the beds like I used to the couple of weeks before my holidays abroad with the lads (20 years ago now).

Laying the foundations for skin cancer in 20 years time.