Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Neiler]

aye, but that's why what really matters is stopping serious illness and death, isn't it?

If you stop that, then people getting it isn't really a massive concern, because you're not going to have 1000s in hopsital from it.

And even against the new strains, the evidence so far is that it stops serious illness, though obviously a long way to go on that.

Well there are a few risks really, say a vaccine in 90% effective, there is still 10% it could impact. Then what we know about the vaccine is that antibodies wane over time so the efficacy % will wane also- what that time is we don't know yet, then we have the variants - all the vaccines we have so far were developed before th4e UK., SA, Brazil variants as, as the JJ study shows that that could impact to. There is a fair argument there we are inviting new variants because of the roll out strategy - the Uk has come in for criticism around this, virsus can mutate to beat vaccines also. The vaccine is a massive help but doesn't mean Covid isn't problematic or we are invincible to it going forward. The vaccine is another brilliant and powerful tool of course -perhaps our most powerful, but we have other tools we should continue to use. Particularly as some will be vaccinated and others wont be as this year goes on.

 

[grandjoeblue]

We are in semi-lockdown; that plus the fact this government wont properly quarantine is why we're seeing the variant here now.

On the South African strain in South Africa though: that's been prevalent there, which is why that country is on the list of quarantined nations, yet we see an announcement virtually that the second surge is at an end there. My question is - how can this be, given its highly infectious nature? 10 days down from 2,000 cases from 20,000.

Isn't the one here the same though? Highly infectious but the rates have dropped considerably in a short span of time?

What I don't get is rates have seemed to drop similarly to March/April even though this variant is supposed to be 40/50% more spreadable and far more is open at the moment.

 

[davek]

Well there are a few risks really, say a vaccine in 90% effective, there is still 10% it could impact. Then what we know about the vaccine is that antibodies wane over time so the efficacy % will wane also- what that time is we don't know yet, then we have the variants - all the vaccines we have so far were developed before th4e UK., SA, Brazil variants as, as the JJ study shows that that could impact to. There is a fair argument there we are inviting new variants because of the roll out strategy - the Uk has come in for criticism around this, virsus can mutate to beat vaccines also. The vaccine is a massive help but doesn't mean Covid isn't problematic or we are invincible to it going forward. The vaccine is another brilliant and powerful tool of course -perhaps our most powerful, but we have other tools we should continue to use. Particularly as some will be vaccinated and others wont be as this year goes on.

Looks to me like the US are going to move to a 6 week gap between jabs if the conversation between experts on CNN I watched last night are anything to go by.

The UK gap still looks crazy like.

 

[davek]

Isn't the one here the same though? Highly infectious but the rates have dropped considerably in a short span of time?

What I don't get is rates have seemed to drop similarly to March/April even though this variant is supposed to be 40/50% more spreadable and far more is open at the moment.

Not to that degree in South Africa. And I dont think summertime explains the differences in falling numbers.

Maybe SA actually had a lockdown worthy of the name?

 

[Neiler]

Looks to me like the US are going to move to a 6 week gap between jabs if the conversation between experts on CNN I watched last night are anything to go by.

The UK gap still looks crazy like.

Didn't see it mate, but interesting - the are using just the Mrna jabs at the moment, id like to see the see the logic - did they say why they went that way @LinekersLegs will probably have the right of it.

Looks like we are going to use AZ on over 65 over here, if what i heard this morning is correct.

 

[tsubaki]

It's not an ideal situation, testing is done to give an optimum immunity - the 12 weeks gap wasn't part of that testing and therefore it doesn't follow proof, but immunity is very unlikely to fall off a cliff. It's a calculated risk in a grevious situation although based on likelihood and probability rather than actual tests.

The best way to give as many of the the highly vulnerable groups some level of protection as quickly as possible was thought to be a better way of lowering death rates than giving a far smaller percentage full 80 odd percent immunity. It's the speed of making progress against the virus when urgency is most needed that's the issue and which way is best.

Israel and the UAE have far smaller populations, infinitely so really. Perhaps a better comparison is Germany, were the UK, despite actively pursuing a policy of not giving a second injection, had still fully immunised greater numbers than Germany. Tbh the EU's whole vaccination policy is a mess

It is, and it really should drive the idea of having a proper pan-EU body to do public health things like this.

All I would repeat though is the theoretical nature of what we are doing; I absolutely hope it works but the moral aspect to this is really questionable.

 

[Barnfred 55]

Maybe. But hasn't it been summer there since November?

Were they in lockdown then though? I haven't been following it tbh. But maybe the combination of lockdown and summer meant that it was easier to bring down the infection rate. Had it been lockdown combined with the middle of winter perhaps the infection rate would still be up there.

Haven't a clue tbh, just trying to come up with an explanation.

 

[Chris O'Connor]

It is, and it really should drive the idea of having a proper pan-EU body to do public health things like this.

All I would repeat though is the theoretical nature of what we are doing; I absolutely hope it works but the moral aspect to this is really questionable.

Yes agreed it's far from ideal, ideally we would have had the time to do things absolutely correctly and with only 21 days in between. The situation is that grevious and the urgency that great that ideal isn't where we're at. It's been done with the best of intentions even if not following normal scientific practice. A decision had to be made and delay wasn't an option.

 

[Walken]

If a country follows a policy designed to give as many vulnerable people some protection as quickly as possible then the one dose option, although not ideal, is a viable strategy.

That statistic while factually correct is fairly meaningless for a country following such a strategy

It isn't meaningless, it just isn't favourable

 

[Chris O'Connor]

It isn't meaningless, it just isn't favourable

I did qualify that by saying it was meaningless to a country following a single dose strategy, that's not the same thing as meaningless per se.

It's also neither favourable or unfavourable to that country but meaningless (as one dose longer gap policy) - so just a very obvious follow onto that really

 

[tsubaki]

Yes agreed it's far from ideal, ideally we would have had the time to do things absolutely correctly and with only 21 days in between. The situation is that grevious and the urgency that great that ideal isn't where we're at. It's been done with the best of intentions even if not following normal scientific practice. A decision had to be made and delay wasn't an option.

Was it? I hope this isn’t the case, but the political benefits of having millions “vaccinated” as headline figures are clear, and they’ve absolutely been reaping them these past few days. They’ve already done this once with tests too.

 

[Barnfred 55]

A quick update on my brother who had the stem cell transfusion just before Christmas. I was going to leave it until I knew whether the procedure was successful or not, but that may not be known for another 6 months or so. There is still a chance that his body could reject my stem cells, and he is still on medication to prevent this albeit a much smaller dosage than it was immediately after the procedure.

It's a case of so far so good really. There have been times when he was not in a good place, but they were all problems related to the chemotherapy and radiotherapy treatments he has had to go through as part of the process. There have been few issues due to the procedure itself and so far, touch wood, no signs that his body will reject the cells. He was allowed home yesterday, less than 6 weeks after the op, and this was at the very positive end of expectations so that has to be good. But with that comes the additional problems covid brings. He's still classed as highly vulnerable and is unable to have the vaccine as apparently it's classed as live. Having been looked after in total isolation for the last 6 weeks or more he now has to be extremely careful not to expose himself in any way to the virus as the chances are it will be lethal.

Please God this combination of lockdown, vaccination and coming into the Spring/Summer period bring down the infection rates dramatically.

 

[Neiler]

This is a pretty good resource for anyone following the vaccine roll out internationally.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations

Explore data on COVID-19 vaccinations across the world.

ourworldindata.org

 

[Neiler]

A quick update on my brother who had the stem cell transfusion just before Christmas. I was going to leave it until I knew whether the procedure was successful or not, but that may not be known for another 6 months or so. There is still a chance that his body could reject my stem cells, and he is still on medication to prevent this albeit a much smaller dosage than it was immediately after the procedure.

It's a case of so far so good really. There have been times when he was not in a good place, but they were all problems related to the chemotherapy and radiotherapy treatments he has had to go through as part of the process. There have been few issues due to the procedure itself and so far, touch wood, no signs that his body will reject the cells. He was allowed home yesterday, less than 6 weeks after the op, and this was at the very positive end of expectations so that has to be good. But with that comes the additional problems covid brings. He's still classed as highly vulnerable and is unable to have the vaccine as apparently it's classed as live. Having been looked after in total isolation for the last 6 weeks or more he now has to be extremely careful not to expose himself in any way to the virus as the chances are it will be lethal.

Please God this combination of lockdown, vaccination and coming into the Spring/Summer period bring down the infection rates dramatically.

God mate, the very best wishes to him and you guys as a family, horrible to go through all that at any time, but going through it at the moment just adds so much more complexity!! Wishing you all, the very best!

 

[Goodison9]

Genuine question how long does everyone think this pandemic will last?

Obviously I know it won’t ever go away Im just talking about returning to a relatively normal life. I’ve just kept myself from really reading about any updates on a daily basis because I think it will just consume my life, got some fella in work though that gives me a daily death update everyday.