Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[NilSatisOptimum]

Or it is like stating that it is still 89% effective at preventing severe disease, which is kind of the point of getting vaccinated i.e. improved health outcomes. It'd be great if the vaccines were all 100% effective at blocking the virus and infections but there is a lot of worry about at the moment, which need not be the case.

Just headline figures, needs detailed breakdown into individuals groups.

There is every need to worry about new variants emerging and it's an abject failure to be importing them. No point sugar coating unless for political gain

Putting aside mitigation of the UK Government entire pandemic response, there is real worry that the entire success be that government procurement or state administration of vaccine will be just in vain.

 

[Billy Dean]

Maybe the horse has already bolted in relation to covid mutations and the vaccine.

"Sir Jeremy Farrar, a Sage member, has warned that Covid vaccines must be made available around the world in an effort to keep cases down and prevent new mutations which could escape the effects of the jabs".

"But Whitty does accept that by widening the gap between doses the risk of what he calls "an escape mutant" would be increased (that is the virus would mutate and build up resistance to the existing vaccines - which would be something of a setback)".

"4.8 Undesirable effects
Summary of the safety profile
The overall safety of COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca is based on an interim analysis of pooled data from four clinical trials conducted in the United Kingdom, Brazil, and South Africa".

The countries were the AstraZeneca vaccine were trialed have had mutations that are claimed to be 'more transmittable and more contagious'.

Do you have a link to this mate? I'd be interested in reading.

 

[tsubaki]

If a country follows a policy designed to give as many vulnerable people some protection as quickly as possible then the one dose option, although not ideal, is a viable strategy.

That statistic while factually correct is fairly meaningless for a country following such a strategy

the issue there is that we are the only country doing this, and we are doing it against the explicit and public statements of one of the manufacturers of the vaccines

 

[davek]

Tell by the response they are very concerned about this variant, they are door knocking, i suppose some "algorithm" tells them to worry as we are near point of "evolutionary turn" and "escape mutations". Rest assured we have a government that listens to "the science"...

Door knocking but refusing to door lock. The murderers didn't support a motion on Monday that would extend quarantine to all air travellers into this country. THAT is how much they are arsed about any new variants that can wipe out the gains of a vaccine.

People need to wake up: this Tory government are looking to let the virus rip through this country to take hundreds of thousands of lives. They are profit-driven monsters and will pay lip service only to getting on top of this virus.

Your government is literally trying to kill you.

 

[davek]

How is the South African variant strain found in about 10 London boroughs, and then only in Southport in the whole of the country?

That's just bizzare. No wonder people have no faith in these butchers.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Just headline figures, needs detailed breakdown into individuals groups.

It is the findings post the phase three trial. I did read that the population of interest included 18+ with a significant sample drawn from the 60+ age range, from men women, and multiple races and regions so the findings should be robust. I believe they are currently running a second trial to understand the effect of a second dose. Hopefully, this will improve the effectiveness of the single dose.

There is every need to worry about new variants emerging and it's an abject failure to be importing them. No point sugar coating unless for political gain

Putting aside mitigation of the UK Government entire pandemic response, there is real worry that the entire success be that government procurement or state administration of vaccine will be just in vain.

If there are worrisome mutations there will be booster jabs required. This was always the most likely outcome given the nature of the problem. In fact, Albert Bourla, Pfizer CEO, was just discussing this at the WEF and saying that they are already looking at tweaking their vaccine.

I do agree that the government's decision to let the virus run wild and bizarrely to keep the borders open has been crazy.

 

[davek]

On the South Africa variant: given that this is the much more contagious - how are South Africa's infection case rate coming right down to 2,000 per day from a high of 20,000 per day in a fortnight, and they are today announcing the lifting of lockdown restrictions?

What am I missing here?

 

[BlueToff]

Just on a separate point based on reading the above, you absolutely do still need to take all precautions even if you’ve been vaccinated once and even twice, this is a massive danger. I’ve got my jab and have changed nothing, I could pick up the virus and still pass it on to any of you through the chain of infection. This is one of my worries with the vaccine. There is no concrete evidence that you can’t pass on the virus to others even if you’ve been vaccinated.

aye, but that's why what really matters is stopping serious illness and death, isn't it?

If you stop that, then people getting it isn't really a massive concern, because you're not going to have 1000s in hopsital from it.

And even against the new strains, the evidence so far is that it stops serious illness, though obviously a long way to go on that.

 

[BlueToff]

Just headline figures, needs detailed breakdown into individuals groups.

There is every need to worry about new variants emerging and it's an abject failure to be importing them. No point sugar coating unless for political gain

Putting aside mitigation of the UK Government entire pandemic response, there is real worry that the entire success be that government procurement or state administration of vaccine will be just in vain.

But the new cases have no links to travel.

The UK strain popped up in Canada before Xmas in people with no links to travel.

The strains are developing all over the world. It's just where they've been found first.

 

[BlueToff]

On the South Africa variant: given that this is the much more contagious - how are South Africa's infection case rate coming right down to 2,000 per day from a high of 20,000 per day in a fortnight, and they are today announcing the lifting of lockdown restrictions?

What am I missing here?

Probably because people are acting like the UK strain 100% developed in the south east of England and the SA strain 100% developed in SA.

They didn't. They were just picked up in those nations first. That UK strain could have come from bloody Brentford or Brasilia for all we know, it's just the virus mutating. In fact, whose to say it's not mutating the same in one particular area as it is in another?

This isn't having a dig at you here Dave, not one bit. Just the case is that we're naming these strains after nations in which they were first found, but the likelihood is they were mutating long before that across the globe.

So the 'SA' variant could well have actually started in France, or London, or Argentina or wherever, unless they have definitive proof that it was patient zero in SA (which I doubt they would?)

Throw in the fact that South Africa are in the middle of their summer, I'd imagine it helps. We must be having one of the coldest winters we've had in a fair few years, on the other hand, which is only going to help the mutation and spread of the virus even with measures in place, because people are just more likely to get ill when it's freezing and wet than they are when it's 25 degrees.

I keep saying it but I would not be surprised at all if Aus and, maybe to a lesser extent, NZ have some cases start to grow as they enter their autumn and winter in a few months' time. Their spike will be relatively nothing compared to here, of course, and I'm sure they'll lockdown swiftly and get it under control, but I wouldn't exactly call that normality either.

 

[tsubaki]

Thankfully, case numbers do appear to be falling rapidly, although I'm not sure how much of that is due to the lockdown and how much the vaccinations. Has anyone done any analysis on that?

id have thought it was lockdown mostly, at least at the moment

 

[Barnfred 55]

On the South Africa variant: given that this is the much more contagious - how are South Africa's infection case rate coming right down to 2,000 per day from a high of 20,000 per day in a fortnight, and they are today announcing the lifting of lockdown restrictions?

What am I missing here?

Very good question. Could it be something to do with the fact it's their summer so the virus could be easier to control?

 

[davek]

Probably because people are acting like the UK strain 100% developed in the south east of England and the SA strain 100% developed in SA.

They didn't. They were just picked up in those nations first. That UK strain could have come from bloody Brentford or Brasilia for all we know, it's just the virus mutating. In fact, whose to say it's not mutating the same in one particular area as it is in another?

This isn't having a dig at you here Dave, not one bit. Just the case is that we're naming these strains after nations in which they were first found, but the likelihood is they were mutating long before that across the globe.

So the 'SA' variant could well have actually started in France, or London, or Argentina or wherever, unless they have definitive proof that it was patient zero in SA (which I doubt they would?)

Throw in the fact that South Africa are in the middle of their summer, I'd imagine it helps. We must be having one of the coldest winters we've had in a fair few years, on the other hand, which is only going to help the mutation and spread of the virus even with measures in place, because people are just more likely to get ill when it's freezing and wet than they are when it's 25 degrees.

I keep saying it but I would not be surprised at all if Aus and, maybe to a lesser extent, NZ have some cases start to grow as they enter their autumn and winter in a few months' time. Their spike will be relatively nothing compared to here, of course, and I'm sure they'll lockdown swiftly and get it under control, but I wouldn't exactly call that normality either.

We are in semi-lockdown; that plus the fact this government wont properly quarantine is why we're seeing the variant here now.

On the South African strain in South Africa though: that's been prevalent there, which is why that country is on the list of quarantined nations, yet we see an announcement virtually that the second surge is at an end there. My question is - how can this be, given its highly infectious nature? 10 days down from 2,000 cases from 20,000.

 

[davek]

Very good question. Could it be something to do with the fact it's their summer so the virus could be easier to control?

Maybe. But hasn't it been summer there since November?

 

[Chris O'Connor]

the issue there is that we are the only country doing this, and we are doing it against the explicit and public statements of one of the manufacturers of the vaccines

It's not an ideal situation, testing is done to give an optimum immunity - the 12 weeks gap wasn't part of that testing and therefore it doesn't follow proof, but immunity is very unlikely to fall off a cliff. It's a calculated risk in a grevious situation, although based on likelihood and probability rather than actual tests.

The best way to give as many of the highly vulnerable groups some level of protection as quickly as possible, was thought to be a better way of lowering death rates than giving a far smaller percentage full 80 odd percent immunity. It's the speed of making progress against the virus when urgency is most needed that's the issue and which way is best.

Israel and the UAE have far smaller populations, infinitely so really. Perhaps a better comparison is Germany, where the UK, despite actively pursuing a policy of not giving a second injection, had remarkably still greater numbers of fully immunised people in late January. Tbh the EU's whole vaccination policy is a mess