Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Spadge Vernacular]

New modelling estimates the potential impact of the new COVID-19 strain | LSHTM

In response to this development, research from LSHTM's Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID) analysed the potential impact of this new strain on the UK, and what measures would be needed to reduce the R number to below 1. Dr Nicholas Davies, Assistant Professor of...

www.lshtm.ac.uk

New COVID-19 variant growing rapidly in England | Imperial News | Imperial College London

The new SARS-CoV-2 variant is growing rapidly, is more transmissible than other variants, and affecting a greater proportion of under 20s.

www.imperial.ac.uk

 

[PhilM]

Back to schools...

Whatever you think of the government, schools are going to have to go back at some stage again. That is going to have to happen. And a good solution to try and keep them as safe as possible while we're still getting the vaccine out is surely going to be testing?

So what if the tests aren't 100% accurate? They're better than no tests at all and it's better than just crapping ourselves collectively any time something isn't 100%.

This idea that the world is going to have to be totally, 100% safe is just mental.

Schools being partially closed is to help break inter-community transmission, which will help curtail the virus's ability to transmit through the population.

Eventually, as long as other measures are adhered too, the infection rate will plateau and hopefully decline; following this, the rate of deaths will decrease.

This is all about giving time for the vaccine to be role out to those who need it, which will allow society to go back to normal: short term pain for long-term gain.

 

[grandjoeblue]

New modelling estimates the potential impact of the new COVID-19 strain | LSHTM

In response to this development, research from LSHTM's Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID) analysed the potential impact of this new strain on the UK, and what measures would be needed to reduce the R number to below 1. Dr Nicholas Davies, Assistant Professor of...

www.lshtm.ac.uk

New COVID-19 variant growing rapidly in England | Imperial News | Imperial College London

The new SARS-CoV-2 variant is growing rapidly, is more transmissible than other variants, and affecting a greater proportion of under 20s.

www.imperial.ac.uk

That article says the R rate is 0.4-0.7 more. London is now at an R rate of 0.6 with similar if not less measures than March last year.

I don't understand how this can be the case if the super variant spreads so much.

 

[mill]

regardless of the schools issue for just a second.

the concerns over the tests being 'false negatives' - well equally so they can be false positives.

If the tests can't pick it up 100%, then honestly what's the point in ever getting back to normal?

The vaccine doesn't work 100%? What's the point?

This will be the continued argument and continued hysteria.

There is no sure fire solution. So decisions like this really don't help anybody either.

Back to schools...

Whatever you think of the government, schools are going to have to go back at some stage again. That is going to have to happen. And a good solution to try and keep them as safe as possible while we're still getting the vaccine out is surely going to be testing?

So what if the tests aren't 100% accurate? They're better than no tests at all and it's better than just crapping ourselves collectively any time something isn't 100%.

This idea that the world is going to have to be totally, 100% safe is just mental.

A false negative is much much more likely than a false positive.

the point really is that we need to slow the spread while we are distributing the vaccine. These quick tests aren’t accurate enough to ensure that. So frankly we should delay until we are at a good enough level of vaccination.

 

[BlueToff]

Schools being partially closed is to help break inter-community transmission, which will help curtail the virus's ability to transmit through the population.

Eventually, as long as other measures are adhered too, the infection rate will plateau and hopefully decline; following this, the rate of deaths will decrease.

This is all about giving time for the vaccine to be role out to those who need it, which will allow society to go back to normal: short term pain for long-term gain.

I am not on about getting the kids back to school soon mate. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

At some stage though, the schools will go back, and they will still be rolling out the vaccine while that happens.

If the testing capacity is there, then surely it would be a sensible approach to be testing at schools too while that happens?

 

[BlueToff]

A false negative is much much more likely than a false positive.

the point really is that we need to slow the spread while we are distributing the vaccine. These quick tests aren’t accurate enough to ensure that. So frankly we should delay until we are at a good enough level of vaccination.

Well actually there's contrasting reports of that too. Some said 80% false positives, some say 60-80% false negatives.

The PCR tests magnify things to such an extent that they could even pick up traces of virus which were dead.

Coronavirus: Tests 'could be picking up dead virus'

Scientists say a positive coronavirus result does not guarantee that someone is infectious.

www.bbc.com

covid-tests

www.advisory.com

So come on, you have to look at it both ways.

Anyway, I wasn't on about getting the schools back soon. It'll be months. Personally I don't think they'll be back until, at the earliest and in a limited capacity, until after Easter.

However, whenever they go back, we will still be rolling out the vaccine. And even then, people keep banging on about test, track and trace, so surely testing in schools will be a good idea for a few months at least?

 

[Toast]

I am not on about getting the kids back to school soon mate. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

At some stage though, the schools will go back, and they will still be rolling out the vaccine while that happens.

If the testing capacity is there, then surely it would be a sensible approach to be testing at schools too while that happens?

My school has emailed parents asking them to become trained in doing the tests.

 

[BlueToff]

My school has emailed parents asking them to become trained in doing the tests.

As in for volunteering?

I don't know the solution to it mate, just feel disregarding the option of testing in schools is daft. It feels like something which certain people would praise if another government did it.

I don't know how the rapid testing works. I mean it was easy to self-test when I did the PCR test and I got the results back a day later, but guessing the rapid testing would be a bit more confusing!

 

[Toast]

As in for volunteering?

I don't know the solution to it mate, just feel disregarding the option of testing in schools is daft. It feels like something which certain people would praise if another government did it.

I don't know how the rapid testing works. I mean it was easy to self-test when I did the PCR test and I got the results back a day later, but guessing the rapid testing would be a bit more confusing!

Yeah volunteering to help carry out mass tests of the kids.
Think how much time that will take to carry out properly as well.

 

[COYBL25]

Now the Anglo Saxons are to blame.

Beam me up.

 

[BlueToff]

Yeah volunteering to help carry out mass tests of the kids.
Think how much time that will take to carry out properly as well.

Oh yeah, it's not going to be feasible to do it all.

But they are gonna have to go back at some stage again and there clearly needs to be something better than the system which was in place previously?

People can't bang on about a test, track and trace system being needed, but then say how stupid it all is. It's one or the other.

I think limited capacity to start with should be the solution. Exams aren't happening, so if they can get certain year groups in on certain days (I'm talking in a few months now, I don't think Feb half-term is doable), then that should help with general numbers in school, so spread of it anyway, and also maybe help with the logistics around the testing?

I don't know, like I've said, but it seems we're only going to be able to get back to normality with test, track and trace alongside the vaccines, so then it's going to have to happen in schools somehow.

 

[sbbefc]

Surely schools should be open again in Feb? By then most of the vulnerable will have been vaccinated?

 

[grandjoeblue]

Surely schools should be open again in Feb? By then most of the vulnerable will have been vaccinated?

February seems unlikely at this stage. I'd say March is more likely.

 

[daza_1973]

Surely schools should be open again in Feb? By then most of the vulnerable will have been vaccinated?

Currently as a home schooling parent I'm hoping mid-Feb, but the way the figures are atm its deffo looking more like mid-March when enough vulnerable have the jab.
Two more months of winter home schooling is a hellish thought.

 

[COYBL25]

Currently as a home schooling parent I'm hoping mid-Feb, but the way the figures are atm its deffo looking more like mid-March when enough vulnerable have the jab.
Two more months of winter home schooling is a hellish thought.

Home schooling isn’t the answer mate is it mate ?

It’s not learning, it’s just treading water.