You are spot on.
It all changed with Cummings incident.
While Cummings was / is a prat, I'm not sure that incident alone led to people ignoring rules, or made as much as a contribution as people say.
First lockdown did what it needed to do. It came too late, but it did the job in terms of 'flattening the curve' and that stayed through the summer, even with things like pubs, shops etc open with no mandatory mask wearing at first.
There's obviously an element of personal responsibility and the mixed government messaging contributes too, but I think an issue that largely gets ignored is people seeing us go in and out of lockdowns - and seeing it in other countries too - and then cases spiking (as would be expected) as soon as stuff opens up again.
It kind of builds into the never-ending cycle of crap. Get rates down, but can't open anything up, because they'll just spike again. 'What's the point? Might as well go and see my mate' (I haven't done that, just saying it's probably an attitude).
We're hopefully gonna be in a position with the vaccine that means this lockdown is the last - obvioulsy that depends on a lot of factors. Whitty et al are right to urge caution, and there is obvious fear over the new strains. But, all this panic and hysteria over the strains etc - rhe media and social media and the people who dedicate their lives seemingly to sitting on twitter and moaning, thrive off it.
Even if it is intended well (we obviously need to be aware of the new strains and stuff and the numbers are awful at the minute) it just all builds into the kind of lockdown fatigue. The one hope we've got out of this and now all the hysteria is about whether it's gonna protect against these new strains, whether it's gonna be put out right, why have the government made this decision or that decision. Kind of just all feels useless because every time we seem to have turned a corner, something else happens, whether self-inflicted or not.
While they are all questions which need to be asked, it all also contributes to that "it's all bloody meaningless" vibe. I'm sure everybody on here - well, maybe not everybody - but the vast majority have had that thought at one point or another. And in that case it's no surprise that little lapses slip in. There's only so long people can go without contact, or without seeing their immediate family, or even just to want to go on a walk somewhere that isn't their immediate area.
Apologies for the winding comment, just feel it's very simple to use Cummings as the turning point but if you look at the numbers and then even think back to when that happened, I don't think it made such a difference at the time in terms of people breaking rules. And I also don't think groups of kids hanging around in parks or somebody going to someone else's house are immediately thinking 'well Cummings did it, so can I', if you get me? Fully agree it was just another inconceivable, remarkable screw up by this mob - one of many - along the way, though.
The weather plays a big part in all this and being in lockdown in the dead of winter isn't good for anyone's sanity. At least we got lucky with that in the spring - it helped massively.
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