Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Billy Dean]

Uh oh, the mink strain has got out lol

 

[Nymzee]

How to book a test.

Last line just reminds me of the corporate line on Repo Men: "You owe it to your family. You owe it to yourself."

That, however, didn't end well.

 

[Catfish Blues]

Data from the latest ONS surveillance report here suggests that, though still rising nationally ( in England ) we were hopefully getting close to a peak in the last week of October. Coupled with the test results from the last week, this suggests that nationally, R is somewhere between 1.0 and 1.1

The following graphs are from the ONS report.
















None of that means it's not the correct call to ramp up restrictions to limit hospital admissions and deaths over the next 4 to 7 weeks, but it does illustrate how much of a car crash Saturday's briefing by Whitty and Vallance was. One of the outcomes of the slides shown then is to erode trust in whatever is put forward in future briefings by them, particularly by Vallance.

Shame really, Whitty comes across as basically honest, and, as a doctor, he, quite rightly, wants to save lives

 

[roydo]

Thanks for that @Catfish Blues

My pea sized brain concludes that this mini lock down will keep the pressure on the virus. Like the big one did.

 

[BlueStevie35]

Hospital figures - 282 deaths were announced today, down 44 on yesterday and up 63 on last Friday. 218 deaths were in English hospitals, down 18 on yesterday and up 55 on last week with 216 occurring in the past 10 days. The 7 day rolling average rises to an even 258

All settings - for the 28 day cut off, 355 deaths were announced today, down 23 on yesterday and up 81 on last Friday. The 7 day rolling average rises to 320.86

For the 60 day cut off, 376 deaths were announced today, down 17 on yesterday and up 91 on last Friday. The 7 day rolling average rises to 333.57

 

[Catfish Blues]

Thanks for that @Catfish Blues

My pea sized brain concludes that this mini lock down will keep the pressure on the virus. Like the big one did.

It'll have less effect than the previous one, but it should help accelerate a reduction in transmission which could possibly have happened without this lockdown, and should certainly help bring R below 1 before the beginning of December.

That's not guaranteed, but it seems very likely.

My main concern is that it's effect is likely to be different in different communities and the communities it's likely to have the least effect on are Asian ones ( especially Muslim communities ) where poverty is the order of the day. Shutting pubs and restaurants there will have very limited effect, and working from home isn't an option for many.

That said, some local Asian communites are already past the peak, but I suspect that's as much down to the virus burning itself out to some extent in those communities as much as any restrictions.

When you look at incidence rates by ethnicity, you could easily make an argument to suggest that the issues leading to Asians being so disproportionally affected have been savagely ignored by the machinery of government.

 

[spectateur]

Uh oh, the mink strain has got out lol

Factory farming of animals will lead to the end of the human specie.

 

[COYBL25]

Factory farming of animals will lead to the end of the human specie.

Nature always wins.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[zzr45]

It'll have less effect than the previous one, but it should help accelerate a reduction in transmission which could possibly have happened without this lockdown, and should certainly help bring R below 1 before the beginning of December.

That's not guaranteed, but it seems very likely.

My main concern is that it's effect is likely to be different in different communities and the communities it's likely to have the least effect on are Asian ones ( especially Muslim communities ) where poverty is the order of the day. Shutting pubs and restaurants there will have very limited effect, and working from home isn't an option for many.

That said, some local Asian communites are already past the peak, but I suspect that's as much down to the virus burning itself out to some extent in those communities as much as any restrictions.

When you look at incidence rates by ethnicity, you could easily make an argument to suggest that the issues leading to Asians being so disproportionally affected have been savagely ignored by the machinery of government.

View attachment 107283

Those filthy others. Coming over here, taking our jobs and bringing their dirty other’s food and speaking their gibberish others language. No wonder they’re all infected.

 

[Chris O'Connor]

This mink strain in Denmark is the nightmare the scientists have always been dreading, it has the potential to make any of the vaccines under development and now so close to mass production ineffective, at least against this strain, which would soon become the predominant strain.

The Covid virus has a stem attached to the rest of the virus and as long as any mutations of the virus left that stem unchanged and intact, only changing other parts of the virus, the vaccines under development would work as they only act on the stem.

So far there have been many mutations all involving minor changes to the make up of the virus but crucially none effecting the stem of the virus itself, which was all good. Now this new mutation at the Danish mink farm has been found to contain a change to the make up of the stem of the virus, exactly the part of the virus the vaccines needed to remain unchanged so they could be properly effective.

The vaccines under development won't be able to protect against the mink strain and it could take another year or more before they can be adapted to include protection against the new strain.

Any virus like flu for example undergoes many mutations or changes in structure year on year this meaning new vaccinations being produced every year to cope with new strains. Covid is a virus and also mutates whereby new strains with very slightly different structures are produced.

The change involving the stem of the virus is our worst nightmare and unfortunately promises to make the virus endemic within the world's population with no vaccine able to do more than contain by acting against the known more virulent strains. Any hopes of eradication look to be gone and like any other seasonal virus it seems we may have to get used to living with the problem permanently.

 

[spectateur]

This mink strain in Denmark is the nightmare the scientists have always been dreading, it has the potential to make any of the vaccines under development and now so close to mass production ineffective, at least against this strain, which would soon become the predominant strain.

The Covid virus has a stem attached to the rest of the virus and as long as any mutations of the virus left that stem unchanged and intact only changing other parts of the virus, the vaccines under development would work as they only act on the stem.

So far there have been many mutations all involving minor changes to the make up of the virus but crucially none effecting the stem of the virus itself, which was all good. Now this new mutation at the Danish mink farm has been found to contain a change to the make up of the stem of the virus, exactly the part of the virus the vaccines needed to remain unchanged so they could be properly effective.

The vaccines under development won't be able to protect against the mink strain and it could take another year or more before they can be adapted to include protection against the new strain.

Any virus like flu for example undergoes many mutations or changes in structure year on year this meaning new vaccinations being produced every year to cope with new strains. Covid is a virus and also mutates whereby new strains with very slightly different structures are produced.

The change involving the stem of the virus is our worst nightmare and unfortunately promises to make the virus endemic within the world's population with no vaccine able to do more than contain by acting against the known more virulent strains. Any hopes of eradication look to be gone and like any other seasonal virus it seems we may have to get used to living with the problem permanently.

Apparently it was first discovered in June. 260 cases by now. On the face of it not very infectious.
Even so, should Denmark be put into isolation.?

 

[tsubaki]

Factory farming of animals will lead to the end of the human specie.

yes but posh people wouldn't be able to buy their mistresses coats that offend the libs if you banned farming mink and skinning them

honestly you are talking far left extremist trash with this talk, don't you care about the mink skinners, their jobs and their right to spread disease?

its as if hitler won etc etc etc

 

[Chris O'Connor]

Apparently it was first discovered in June. 260 cases by now. On the face of it not very infectious.
Even so, should Denmark be put into isolation.?

Tbf to the Danish they are taking steps to try and isolate those affected and have culled all the mink. It's perhaps small numbers now but as we know that's now, I wouldn't like to speculate on its ability to spread but it is the Covid virus and very likely to share the same characteristics as any other strain.

Our government has taken steps to quarantine anyone coming from Denmark for 14 days which is the standard to prove clear of the virus, but it is almost impossible to stop it spreading.

 

[spectateur]

yes but posh people wouldn't be able to buy their mistresses coats that offend the libs if you banned farming mink and skinning them

honestly you are talking far left extremist trash with this talk, don't you care about the mink skinners, their jobs and their right to spread disease?

its as if hitler won etc etc etc

Difficult to tell in texts when you don't know the person.
However can we assume you're being sarcastic?.