Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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France sets the tone....other European nations will follow suit. Damn. UK will be in nation wide lockdown come mid November, at the latest
 
For a national lockdown to be effective realistically it would need to be in place until February or March. I doubt they will do that unless deaths start to approach 1000 a day again. I can't see them putting the financial support in place.
 
French president Macron: second wave of Covid-19 likely to be worse than first wave

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, said Covid-19 is circulating more quickly than forecast and new measures are needed.

He said it is predicted that by mid-November all intensive care beds will be filled with Covid-19 cases and that France needs a sudden “brutal brake” on the transmission of the virus so doctors don’t have to make choices between Covid cases and car accident cases, for example.
 
French president Macron: second wave of Covid-19 likely to be worse than first wave

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, said Covid-19 is circulating more quickly than forecast and new measures are needed.

He said it is predicted that by mid-November all intensive care beds will be filled with Covid-19 cases and that France needs a sudden “brutal brake” on the transmission of the virus so doctors don’t have to make choices between Covid cases and car accident cases, for example.


This is clip obviously UK based but we were told from the very beginning that eradication was impossible and that suppression would lead to waves of the virus. Because herd immunity became a dirty, politically charged phrase all common sense and prior knowledge had to be thrown out the window and here we are again with governments trying to “control” a virus. The virus is even more endemic now than it was then. Locking down to “flatten the curve” (remember that?) has now turned into locking down until eradication/vaccine. I guess their first lockdown which was way more stringent and enforced than ours just wasn’t perfect enough right? So of course it’s time to do it again.
 
Hospital figures - 249 deaths were announced today (yikes), up 29 on yesterday and up 123 on last Wednesday. 174 deaths were in English hospitals, down 33 on yesterday and up 80 on last week with 170 occurring in the past 10 days. The 7 day rolling average rises to 179.29

All settings - for the 28 day cut off, 310 deaths were announced today (double yikes), down 57 on yesterday and up 119 on last Wednesday. The 7 day rolling average rises to 216.71

For the 60 day cut off, 316 deaths were announced today (triple yikes), down 70 on yesterday and up 116 on last Wednesday. The 7 day rolling average rises to an even 225
 

This is clip obviously UK based but we were told from the very beginning that eradication was impossible and that suppression would lead to waves of the virus. Because herd immunity became a dirty, politically charged phrase all common sense and prior knowledge had to be thrown out the window and here we are again with governments trying to “control” a virus. The virus is even more endemic now than it was then. Locking down to “flatten the curve” (remember that?) has now turned into locking down until eradication/vaccine. I guess their first lockdown which was way more stringent and enforced than ours just wasn’t perfect enough right? So of course it’s time to do it again.



 
Time to regenerate.

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Education, education, education

Not that simple mate. This is the crude, back of a fag packet version of a graph we based some recommendations on for a couple of clients in the North West.

6F9FC4197A1F4B14AAFA707F22FD6936.png
The Y axis is R ( or, to be more accurate, my very crude representation of R ), based on local hospital admissions rather than general cases or the national picture because hospital admissions represent those at risk, which for employers is more important than, say, students

R bobbled around 1 over the Summer. The graph makes it looks like it varied a lot, but the numbers in hospital were small, so it's basically just noise.

At the end of August R began to break out of that cycle, and, by early September, it had obviously started to move. Hospital admissions lag new cases by a week or two, so that rise can't be put down to schools. Basically it rose locally to about 1.2, presumably down to people relaxing on restrictions, not helped by being told to eat out to help out and get back to work.


It's only after that that the effect of schools and unis starts to kick in. My guess is between them schools and unis opening probably accounted for a rise in R of about .5, which took R up to about 1.7/1.8. Again, I'm guessing but I'm putting the rest of the rise of R to about 2 down to the change in season.

Ignoring the peaks and troughs, since mid Sept R's been dropping, but it's still above 1, so daily hospital admissions are still rising, just not as quick as they were.
 

This is clip obviously UK based but we were told from the very beginning that eradication was impossible and that suppression would lead to waves of the virus. Because herd immunity became a dirty, politically charged phrase all common sense and prior knowledge had to be thrown out the window and here we are again with governments trying to “control” a virus. The virus is even more endemic now than it was then. Locking down to “flatten the curve” (remember that?) has now turned into locking down until eradication/vaccine. I guess their first lockdown which was way more stringent and enforced than ours just wasn’t perfect enough right? So of course it’s time to do it again.
See it's funny because chief scientific advisory there talking about herd immunity again a day after someone else shared something quite the opposite to be reality. People choose which side to fall on with their opinion.

Taking personal opinions aside however. Perhaps this is the problem , not just here but everywhere. Nobody agrees. Entire scientific communities around the world, experts in their field and nobody seems to agree. Herd immunity isn't possible and yet it is. Masks aren't effective according to WHO but countries are telling their people differently. There's all these cures/ vaccines about the place including more than one in the UK (as the government bought from more than one place) , yet no collaboration , no global coming together to save everyone.

Everything is fragmented, broken and just sums up the world today. The only thing people can agree on is what the virus is, even the source of it is disputed.

Perhaps the problem isn't the virus at all but how the world have reacted to it, how they advise about it and how convoluted everything is. There is no one answer but nobody seems to be trying for one anyway.

Meanwhile the media print horror story and scare lingering every day and people soak the misinformation in again and again. It's almost like the perfect scenario for those wanting to profit in a crisis, fuel the fear through the press and never settle on a solution for everyone to get behind.

When something threatens the entire world and the world doesn't come together, that is a sorry state of affairs.
 
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